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SDSU

San Diego State 20 at Utah State 41

USU
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:34 · Tyler Pastula punt for 57 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for no gain to the USU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.6Pregame prior+8.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:00: Gabriel Plascencia 35 Yd Field Goal — SDSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 43%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:49: Marquez Cooper 14 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick) — SDSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 56%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:16: Gabriel Plascencia 30 Yd Field Goal — SDSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:53: Bryson Barnes 19 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick) — SDSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:58: Josh Sterzer 10 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick) — SDSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SDSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:42SDSU 4th & 1 at USU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:50USU 4th & 7 at USU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:34SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:29USU 4th & 10 at USU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00SDSU 4th & 11 at USU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:57USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:49SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 47, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:36USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.6%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:16SDSU 4th & 6 at USU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−3.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:42SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 23, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:56SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 32, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:50USU 4th & 8 at USU 48, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:23SDSU 4th & 10 at USU 46, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:41SDSU 4th & 30 at SDSU 37, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:25SDSU 4th & 1 at SDSU 43, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.0%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:57USU 4th & 1 at SDSU 2, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:49SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SDSUDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:1840% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
59.9%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 23Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
59.9%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Nate Bennett for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (JD Drew) to the SDSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+34
59.9%
Danny O'Neil run for 34 yds to the USU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
59.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 11 yds to the USU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
59.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the USU 18Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
59.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 5 yds to the USU 13Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
59.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the USU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
59.6%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the USU 10 San Diego State Penalty, Offensive holding (Michael Harrison) to the USU 20Similar
Q1 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+9
59.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 9 yds to the USU 11Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
59.5%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 9 yds to the USU 2Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the USU 1Similar
Q1 10:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
59.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for a loss of 3 yards to the USU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4860% → 59%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
59.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 5 yds to the USU 9Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+2
59.9%
Spencer Petras run for 2 yds to the USU 11Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+8
59.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 8 yds to the USU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
60.0%
Spencer Petras sacked by Tupu Alualu for a loss of 7 yards to the USU 12Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+4
59.9%
Herschel Turner run for 4 yds to the USU 16Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+6
59.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 6 yds to the USU 22Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
59.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 53 yds , Mekhi Shaw returns for no gain to the SDSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0840% → 40%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.7%
pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-8
59.7%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Marlin Dean for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSU 23Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
60.4%
Tyler Pastula punt for 57 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for no gain to the USU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5460% → 59%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
59.8%
Herschel Turner run for 1 yd to the USU 21Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+15
59.7%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Josh Sterzer for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kyle Moretti) to the USU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
60.1%
Herschel Turner run for 3 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
60.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Kyrese White for 4 yds to the USU 43Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-7
60.4%
Spencer Petras sacked by Trey White for a loss of 7 yards to the USU 36Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
59.1%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:2140% → 43%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
59.6%
Jordan Napier run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 16Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+42
59.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 42 yds to the USU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
58.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 12 yds to the USU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
57.9%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the USU 30Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
57.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 14 yds to the USU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
57.2%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Michael Harrison, broken up by Isaiah BruceSimilar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
57.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the USU 14Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 8
OPP 14
-5
57.6%
San Diego State Penalty, false start (Nate Williams) to the USU 19Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 13
OPP 19
-5
58.1%
San Diego State Penalty, false start (Christian Jones) to the USU 24Similar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 18
OPP 24
+7
58.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the USU 17Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
57.2%
Gabriel Plascencia 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0358% → 57%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.6%
Derrick Jameson run for 3 yds to the USU 28Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
57.6%
Derrick Jameson run for 6 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q2 14:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
58.0%
Derrick Jameson run for no gain to the USU 34 Utah State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Krishna Clay) to the USU 34Similar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+28
56.9%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 43 yds for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Colby Bowman) to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0144% → 43%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
56.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for 3 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
55.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the SDSU 47Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
55.8%
pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
56.6%
Tyler Pastula punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8INT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:2357% → 59%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
57.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Herschel Turner for 3 yds to the USU 33Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
57.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Jack Hestera for 6 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
58.4%
Herschel Turner run for 3 yds to the USU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
58.7%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Otto Tia San Diego State Penalty, substitution infraction (Bryce Phillips) to the USU 47Similar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 5
OWN 47
0
59.1%
pass incomplete to Jack HesteraSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
59.0%
Spencer Petras run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 2
50
+4
58.7%
Bryson Barnes run for 4 yds to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
59.3%
Herschel Turner run for no gain to the SDSU 46Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
59.1%
Spencer Petras pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:2645% → 56%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
54.6%
San Diego State Penalty, false start (Louis Brown IV) to the SDSU 49Similar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+10
55.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 10 yds to the USU 41Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+6
54.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the USU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
53.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 11 yds to the USU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
53.2%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 25Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+11
53.2%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 11 yds to the USU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
44.2%
Marquez Cooper 14 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1246% → 44%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.6%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for 9 yds to the USU 34Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
46.2%
pass incomplete to Grant PageSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
45.3%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the USU 34Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
44.3%
Derrick Jameson run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1657% → 61%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
43.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for a loss of 5 yards to the USU 38Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 15
OPP 38
-7
43.6%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Marlin Dean and Cian Slone for a loss of 7 yards to the USU 45Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 22
OPP 45
+29
44.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 29 yds to the USU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
41.9%
pass incomplete to Nate BennettSimilar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
41.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 17Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+5
42.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jordan Napier for 5 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
38.8%
Gabriel Plascencia 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2336% → 37%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
35.8%
Herschel Turner run for 26 yds to the SDSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
36.8%
Bryson Barnes pass incomplete to Grant Page for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Tayvion Beasley) to the SDSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
37.6%
Herschel Turner run for 5 yds to the SDSU 19Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+19
36.9%
Bryson Barnes 19 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:1373% → 72%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
26.8%
San Diego State Penalty, false start (Tyler McMahan) to the SDSU 20Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
27.1%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 18Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
27.1%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 18Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
27.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 5 yds to the SDSU 23Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+7
27.8%
Tyler Pastula punt for 49 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for 7 yds to the USU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:1733% → 35%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
33.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 16 yds to the SDSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
35.1%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the SDSU 47Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
35.0%
pass incomplete to Otto TiaSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+16
34.5%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for 16 yds to the SDSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
35.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 10 yds to the SDSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
36.1%
Herschel Turner run for 2 yds to the SDSU 19Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+10
35.1%
Bryson Barnes run for 10 yds to the SDSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
34.5%
Grant Page 9 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the SDSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0131% → 29%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Kyrese White for 1 yd to the USU 26Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
30.3%
Rahsul Faison run for 13 yds to the USU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
31.1%
Rahsul Faison run for 23 yds to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
31.9%
Rahsul Faison run for 4 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+15
32.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 15 yds to the SDSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
31.3%
Bryson Barnes run for 9 yds to the SDSU 10Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 1
OPP 10
0
31.0%
Bryson Barnes run for no gain to the SDSU 10Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
29.1%
Josh Sterzer 10 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0277% → 77%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.9%
pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
22.9%
San Diego State Penalty, false start (Nate Williams) to the SDSU 20Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
23.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 11 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
22.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 32Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
22.7%
Tyler Pastula punt for 68 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:5725% → 22%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
24.8%
Rahsul Faison run for 2 yds to the USU 22Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
24.4%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for 7 yds to the USU 29Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
24.9%
Bryson Barnes run for 3 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
24.4%
Rahsul Faison run for 7 yds to the USU 39Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+7
25.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 7 yds to the USU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
25.4%
Rahsul Faison run for no gain to the USU 46Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
24.3%
Rahsul Faison run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 45Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+3
22.8%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Kyrese White for 3 yds to the USU 48Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
22.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:2181% → 88%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
19.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for no gain to the SDSU 13 San Diego State Penalty, personal foul (Tyler McMahan) to the SDSU 7Similar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 16
OWN 7
+14
18.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 14 yds to the SDSU 21Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+12
17.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 12 yds to the SDSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
16.9%
pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
16.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 8 yds to the SDSU 41Similar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+13
15.7%
Danny O'Neil run for 13 yds to the USU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-6
14.8%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Lawrence Falatea and Isaiah Bruce for a loss of 6 yards to the SDSU 48Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 16
OWN 48
+4
14.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the USU 48Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+2
14.0%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Cam Davis for 2 yds to the USU 46Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
12.5%
Tyler Pastula punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:5018% → 18%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
17.6%
Herschel Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 19Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+14
16.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Josh Sterzer for 14 yds to the USU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
17.6%
Bryson Barnes run for 5 yds to the USU 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-1
17.9%
Rahsul Faison run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 37Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+8
16.9%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Grant Page for 8 yds to the USU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
16.5%
Derrick Jameson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 5
50
+39
16.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 39 yds to the SDSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
18.4%
Derrick Jameson run for 5 yds to the SDSU 6Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
18.1%
Grant Page 6 Yd pass from Bryson Barnes (Tanner Cragun PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 2:4491% → 93%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the SDSU 31Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
8.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 2 yds to the SDSU 33Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
8.8%
Danny O'Neil run for 12 yds to the SDSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
7.5%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 12 yds to the USU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
7.1%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Louis Brown IV, broken up by JD Drew San Diego State Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyler McMahan) to the SDSU 47Similar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+5
7.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the USU 48Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 15
OPP 48
-15
6.9%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete San Diego State Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Nate Williams) to the SDSU 37Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 30
OWN 37
0
7.2%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Michael Harrison, broken up by Jadon PearsonSimilar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 30
OWN 37
0
7.2%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 30
OWN 37
0
7.3%
Tyler Pastula punt for 43 yds , Kahanu Davis returns for no gain to the USU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:248% → 10%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+63
8.2%
Bryson Barnes run for 63 yds to the SDSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
10.2%
Derrick Jameson run for 11 yds to the SDSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
10.1%
Derrick Jameson run for 1 yd to the SDSU 5Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
9.9%
Kyrese White 5 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick) (Tanner Cragun KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3794% → 95%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
6.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 14 yds to the SDSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
6.5%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 33Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+9
6.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 9 yds to the SDSU 42Similar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
5.6%
Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd to the SDSU 43Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-2
5.2%
Danny O'Neil run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:108% → 6%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
7.6%
Utah State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Noah Flores) to the USU 44Similar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+45
7.2%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Kyrese White for 45 yds to the SDSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
8.2%
Herschel Turner run for 6 yds to the SDSU 5Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
5.8%
Bryson Barnes run for 2 yds to the SDSU 3Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
5.7%
Bryson Barnes pass complete to Otto Tia for 1 yd to the SDSU 2Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
5.4%
Bryson Barnes run for 1 yd to the SDSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.8%
Herschel Turner 1 Yd Run (Tanner Cragun Kick) (Tanner Cragun KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 25TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:3697% → 98%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.2%
pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
3.2%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson pass complete to Cam Davis for 2 yds to the SDSU 27 for a 1ST down Utah State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jaiden Francois) to the SDSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
2.9%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 11 yds to the USU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
2.7%
pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
2.7%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson run for 3 yds to the USU 44Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+12
2.2%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson run for 12 yds to the USU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
2.2%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson sacked by Cole Joyce for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 33Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+17
2.1%
Lucky Sutton run for 17 yds to the USU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
2.0%
Jordan Napier run for 2 yds to the USU 14Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
2.0%
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson run for 2 yds to the USU 12Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
2.0%
Mekhi Shaw 12 Yd pass from Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
2.7%
Jacob Conover run for a loss of 1 yard to the USU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+97.3
TD · Q2 7:49
Marquez Cooper 14 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)
-9.1
FG · Q2 3:16
Gabriel Plascencia 30 Yd Field Goal
-3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com