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AF

Air Force 31 at San Diego State 20

SDSU
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · SDSU
modelSDSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playSDSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:37 · Danny O'Neil run for 4 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense−26.1Score differential−10.3Garbage-time factor−12.8Pregame prior−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:29: Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +5.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:25: Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK) — SDSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 8:03: Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 76 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +12.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:00: Dylan Carson run for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +12.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:54: Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SDSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 12:33SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:33SDSU 4th & 11 at SDSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:31AF 4th & 15 at SDSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q3 10:04SDSU 4th & 1 at AF 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−3.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−14.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:37SDSU 4th & 5 at AF 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    25.7%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q4 9:31AF 4th & 4 at SDSU 49, up 11
    Close callPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q4 6:41SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.9%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:37SDSU 4th & 3 at SDSU 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.5%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:24SDSU 4th & 18 at SDSU 44, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:02AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:00SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:29AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:25SDSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:03AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:00AF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:54SDSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:4456% → 57%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
44.2%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+11
44.3%
Quentin Hayes run for 11 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
44.5%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
44.5%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
44.6%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
44.7%
Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 5
50
-3
44.7%
Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+52
45.1%
Brandon Engel pass complete to Jared Roznos for 52 yds to the SDSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.0%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:5144% → 48%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
43.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 11 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
43.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 36Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
43.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 3 yds to the SDSU 39Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
43.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 7 yds to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
43.9%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 46Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
43.6%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 10 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
44.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 20 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
44.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+13
44.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 13 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
47.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2554% → 60%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.3%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
46.2%
Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
46.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 18 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
45.7%
Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the SDSU 45Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+5
45.5%
Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
45.7%
Owen Allen run for 12 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
44.9%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the SDSU 27Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+14
45.0%
Kade Frew run for 14 yds to the SDSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
44.9%
Dylan Carson run for 12 yds to the SDSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.9%
Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:2742% → 41%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
41.7%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Blake Fletcher for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 21Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+11
41.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 11 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
42.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
41.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 12 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
42.9%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 47Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
42.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jude Wolfe for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 46Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
41.4%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
40.5%
Tyler Pastula punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 10Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
40.5%
Tyler Pastula punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:5559% → 64%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
41.0%
Dylan Carson run for 17 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
40.4%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+1
39.7%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+4
40.1%
Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
39.2%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+38
39.1%
Kade Frew run for 23 yds to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the SDSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
38.3%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the SDSU 20Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+2
37.0%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the SDSU 18Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-10
37.1%
(07:39) No Huddle Frew,Kade rush left for 7 yards gain to the SDSU11 (White,Trey) PENALTY AFA Holding (Harris,Cade) 10 yards from SDSU18 to SDSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 15
OPP 28
0
37.7%
Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the SDSU 28Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+45
35.7%
Matthew Dapore 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 5:5236% → 47%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
35.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+1
36.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 26Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+1
35.3%
Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd to the SDSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
35.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Cam Davis for 2 yds to the SDSU 25Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+4
35.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Cam Davis for 4 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+14
34.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 14 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
36.1%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Blake Fletcher for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 40Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+18
34.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 18 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
36.6%
Danny O'Neil run for 19 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
37.0%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+13
35.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 13 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
35.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the AFA 3Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
35.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the AFA 2Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
47.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.1%
Kaden Cloud run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 44 yds · 4:4848% → 45%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
48.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 48Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+2
48.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 4
50
+6
47.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 6 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
48.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+7
48.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
49.7%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+3
46.4%
Danny O'Neil run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+19
47.4%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 19 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
50.0%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Jordan NapierSimilar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
50.0%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+9
48.2%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 9 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 1
OPP 6
-6
45.4%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9TD
4 plays · 88 yds · 1:5358% → 72%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
41.8%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+6
41.9%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
41.5%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+76
28.5%
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 76 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:1829% → 28%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
29.3%
PENALTY AFA Personal Foul 15 yards from SDSU42 to AFA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
30.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 1
OPP 34
-5
31.7%
(07:25) Shotgun O'Neil,Danny pass incomplete short left to Bennett,Nate thrown to AFA30 PENALTY SDSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Fuimaono,Saipale) 5 yards from AFA34 to AFA39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
30.3%
Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
29.8%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+4
28.2%
Danny O'Neil run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 5:3074% → 92%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
25.9%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+6
24.1%
Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
22.5%
Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the SDSU 46Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+3
21.4%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
21.4%
Kade Frew run for 8 yds to the SDSU 35Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+3
20.3%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
20.4%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the SDSU 31Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+7
20.2%
Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the SDSU 24Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+10
20.4%
Kade Frew run for 10 yds to the SDSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
7.8%
Dylan Carson run for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 1:4512% → 24%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
12.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 9 yds to the SDSU 35Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
12.9%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Nate BennettSimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-5
12.8%
PENALTY SDSU False Start (Williams,Nate) 5 yards from SDSU35 to SDSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+9
12.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 9 yds to the SDSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
12.8%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 15 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
13.1%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 36 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
14.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
23.7%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 4:1181% → 88%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.8%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
17.1%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
17.4%
Kade Frew run for 13 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
14.4%
Dylan Carson run for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
13.1%
Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+4
12.3%
Kade Frew run for 4 yds to the SDSU 49Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
12.4%
Luke Freer punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14DOWNS
16 plays · 19 yds · 6:5413% → 5%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
12.9%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 3 yds to the SDSU 12Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+15
12.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 15 yds to the SDSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
13.5%
Danny O'Neil run for 5 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
13.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the SDSU 34Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+1
13.2%
Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd to the SDSU 35Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+6
11.1%
Tyler Pastula pass complete to Chris Johnson for 6 yds to the SDSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
11.2%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 41Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
10.5%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun O'Neil,Danny rush right for 5 yards gain to the SDSU46 (Fletcher,Blake), out of bounds PENALTY SDSU Holding (Fuimaono,Saipale) 10 yards from SDSU41 to SDSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 20
OWN 31
0
9.0%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Louis Brown IVSimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+17
8.3%
Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 17 yds to the SDSU 48Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+4
9.7%
Danny O'Neil run for 4 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
10.6%
Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Mekhi ShawSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
9.2%
Danny O'Neil run for no gain to the AFA 48 Danny O'Neil fumbled, recovered by AFA Marquez CooperSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-8
8.7%
San Diego State Penalty, (-8 Yards) to the SDSU 44Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 18
OWN 44
-7
5.3%
Danny O'Neil sacked by Aiden Swartz for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15END OF GAME
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:0996% → 98%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
4.4%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the SDSU 32Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+3
3.3%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the SDSU 29Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+1
3.4%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the SDSU 28Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+5
3.5%
(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun Hayes,Quentin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SDSU27 (White,Trey) PENALTY SDSU Offside (McLaughlin,Jelani) 5 yards from SDSU28 to SDSU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
2.3%
Q. Hayes takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-3
2.3%
Q. Hayes takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:03
Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 76 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q3 1:00
Dylan Carson run for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-12.6
TD · Q2 0:25
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)
+11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com