Washington State

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2386th
  Defense+0.1629th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.1%91st
  Defense45.9%17th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3482nd
  Defense+1.2844th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1780th
  Defense+0.1816th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3286th
  Defense+0.1940th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.3%86th
  Defense51.9%13th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense36.9%91st
  Defense32.1%31st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1060th
  Defense3.2718th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.7%26th
  Defense16.9%40th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.4%72nd
  Defense14.6%32nd

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Washington State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   PRST
2. W
   TTU
3. W
   WASH
4. W
   SJSU
5. L
   BOIS
6. W
   FRES
7. W
   HAW
8. W
   SDSU
9. W
   USU
10. L
    UNM
11. L
    ORST
12. L
    WYO
13. L
    SYR

Bars above the line: better than expected for Washington State.

Players, 2024

1. John MateerQB420 plays · +0.295 pts/play · 11th of 232 QBs
   2.32WAR1.58 to 3.06
2. Kyle WilliamsWR67 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 43rd of 452 WRs
   0.20WAR0.04 to 0.39
3. Wayshawn ParkerRB117 plays · +0.090 pts/play · 143rd of 373 RBs
   0.20WAR0.14 to 0.26
4. Leo PulalasiRB51 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 236th of 373 RBs
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.14
5. Kris HutsonWR38 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 154th of 452 WRs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.15
6. Joshua MeredithWR35 plays · +0.103 pts/play · 202nd of 452 WRs
   0.07WAR0.01 to 0.13
7. Cooper MathersTE11 plays · +0.283 pts/play · 48th of 221 TEs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.08
8. Carlos HernandezWR31 plays · +0.071 pts/play · 263rd of 452 WRs
   0.04WAR−0.02 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Washington State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  61161175th of 131Roster talent: 611, 75th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  17917965th of 131Recruiting: 179, 65th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  28%28%101st of 130Returning production: 28%, 101st of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +1.3+1.366th of 131SP+ rating: +1.3, 66th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Washington State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.04 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs SJSUQ4 1:56 4th & 4 at WSU 39, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
2. at BOISQ2 8:27 4th & 2 at BOIS 18, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
3. at FRESQ2 0:46 4th & 2 at FRES 49, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. vs SJSUQ2 4:34 4th & 11 at SJSU 29, up 11Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts
5. at UNMQ3 3:41 4th & 2 at WSU 34, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. at BOISQ4 8:05 4th & 10 at BOIS 30, down 21Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts
7. at BOISQ4 9:38 4th & 10 at WSU 25, down 21Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.3 pts
8. vs TTUQ1 0:48 4th & 4 at WSU 46, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

83rd of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Washington State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   PRST
2. W

   TTU
3. W

   WASH
4. W

   SJSU
5. L

   BOIS
6. W

   FRES
7. W

   HAW
8. W

   SDSU
9. W

   USU
10. L

    UNM
11. L

    ORST
12. L

    WYO
13. L

    SYR

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Washington State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.99
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock+0.17
• Timeouts−0.16
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.42

Game by game

• PRSTW 70-30 vs PRST96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +7
• TTUW 37-16 vs TTU44% → 100%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +47, Timeouts +2
• WASHW 24-19 at WASH35% → 96%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +58, Clock +3
• SJSUW 54-52 vs SJSU81% → 76%Before kickoff +31 · On the field −5: Timeouts −15, Scoreboard +15
• BOISL 24-45 at BOIS29% → 0%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −33, Clock +1
• FRESW 25-17 at FRES54% → 93%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +45, Possession & field position +2
• HAWW 42-10 vs HAW85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +18
• SDSUW 29-26 at SDSU85% → 95%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +26, Clock +2
• USUW 49-28 vs USU91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +14
• UNML 35-38 at UNM81% → 26%Before kickoff +31 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −14, Timeouts +1
• ORSTL 38-41 at ORST78% → 17%Before kickoff +28 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −16, Possession & field position −3
• WYOL 14-15 vs WYO89% → 6%Before kickoff +39 · On the field −82: Scoreboard −51, Clock −3
• SYRL 35-52 vs SYR10% → 1%Before kickoff −40 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −19, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Washington State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 44-47 WSU (2017) - Washington State dropped to a 1.9% win probability before pulling it out.