Washington State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1651st
  Defense+0.1264th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.5%54th
  Defense44.4%30th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2748th
  Defense+1.1788th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1765th
  Defense+0.1531st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2040th
  Defense+0.1768th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.3%48th
  Defense51.5%21st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.9%67th
  Defense29.7%56th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9937th
  Defense3.2724th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.5%12th
  Defense19.3%76th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense18.2%19th
  Defense17.2%60th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Washington State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   USU
2. W
   PRST
3. L
   USC
4. L
   UTAH
5. W
   CAL
6. W
   ORST
7. W
   STAN
8. L
   BYU
9. W
   ASU
10. L
    ORE
11. W
    ARIZ
12. W
    WASH
13. L
    CMU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Washington State.

Players, 2021

1. Jayden de LauraQB334 plays · +0.223 pts/play · 66th of 219 QBs
   1.39WAR0.75 to 2.05
2. Max BorghiRB148 plays · +0.193 pts/play · 60th of 387 RBs
   0.53WAR0.39 to 0.67
3. Deon McIntoshRB101 plays · +0.192 pts/play · 114th of 387 RBs
   0.36WAR0.27 to 0.45
4. Travell HarrisWR70 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 52nd of 474 WRs
   0.22WAR0.14 to 0.29
5. Calvin Jackson Jr.WR81 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 65th of 474 WRs
   0.20WAR0.12 to 0.29
6. Jarrett GuarantanoQB61 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 182nd of 219 QBs
   0.17WAR0.04 to 0.29
7. De'Zhaun StriblingWR46 plays · +0.194 pts/play · 103rd of 474 WRs
   0.17WAR0.12 to 0.21
8. Lincoln VictorWR26 plays · +0.183 pts/play · 261st of 474 WRs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Washington State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  60160161st of 130Roster talent: 601, 61st of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  18018057th of 130Recruiting: 180, 57th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  78%78%58th of 128Returning production: 78%, 58th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +6.7+6.757th of 130SP+ rating: +6.7, 57th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Washington State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UTAHQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at UTAH 4, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
2. at OREQ3 9:57 4th & 2 at WSU 49, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. vs USCQ2 4:24 4th & 9 at USC 35, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. at ASUQ3 4:24 4th & 4 at WSU 49, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. vs BYUQ2 2:32 4th & 4 at midfield, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
6. at CMUQ2 10:29 4th & 11 at CMU 13, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
7. at CMUQ4 7:49 4th & 13 at CMU 44, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs USCQ4 12:46 4th & 1 at WSU 18, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

47th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Washington State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   USU
2. W

   PRST
3. L

   USC
4. L

   UTAH
5. W

   CAL
6. W

   ORST
7. W

   STAN
8. L

   BYU
9. W

   ASU
10. L

    ORE
11. W

    ARIZ
12. W

    WASH
13. L

    CMU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Washington State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.82
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts−0.03
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.13

Game by game

• USUL 23-26 vs USU90% → 26%Before kickoff +40 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −29, Clock −2
• PRSTW 44-24 vs PRST97% → 99%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +6
• USCL 14-45 vs USC28% → 0%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −34, Clock −1
• UTAHL 13-24 at UTAH19% → 2%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −21, Possession & field position −1
• CALW 21-6 at CAL27% → 99%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +72: Scoreboard +62, Clock +3
• ORSTW 31-24 vs ORST42% → 91%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +49: Scoreboard +31, Possession & field position +2
• STANW 34-31 vs STAN57% → 96%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +34, Timeouts +1
• BYUL 19-21 vs BYU45% → 15%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −37, Clock −4
• ASUW 34-21 at ASU13% → 98%Before kickoff −37 · On the field +85: Scoreboard +61, Clock +3
• OREL 24-38 at ORE17% → 1%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −21, Timeouts −1
• ARIZW 44-18 vs ARIZ86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +17
• WASHW 40-13 at WASH50% → 100%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +51, Clock +2
• CMUL 21-24 at CMU66% → 6%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from Washington State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 44-47 WSU (2017) - Washington State dropped to a 1.9% win probability before pulling it out.