2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadPRST aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scorePRST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · Davis Alexander pass complete to Nate Bennett for 3 yds for a TD (Cody Williams KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:25: Davis Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Cody Williams KICK) — PRST win probability +1.9 pts (now 8%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:10: Jayden de Laura run for 10 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:12: Deon McIntosh run for 16 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:07: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 19 yds for a TD — WSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Dean Janikowski 23 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6PRST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:51WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q1 8:01PRST 4th & 17 at PRST 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q1 3:45PRST 4th & 8 at PRST 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q1 1:40WSU 4th & 24 at WSU 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.4%−0.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.8%average punt
- Q2 7:23PRST 4th & 2 at PRST 44, down 7Close callPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it7.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 3:07PRST 4th & 10 at WSU 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call5.2%58% to makePunt4.4%−0.9average punt
- Q3 10:42PRST 4th & 2 at WSU 17, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.4%56% to convertField goal2.1%−0.380% to makePunt0.3%−2.1average punt
- Q3 7:11WSU 4th & 6 at PRST 31, up 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%40% to convertField goal98.2%−<0.154% to makePunt98.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 4:33PRST 4th & 12 at PRST 46, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q4 14:13PRST 4th & 14 at PRST 44, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 11:57WSU 4th & 16 at WSU 1, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.413% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 9:53PRST 4th & 6 at WSU 17, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.238% to convertField goal0.3%80% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q4 9:31WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 17, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:02WSU 4th & 7 at PRST 13, up 20Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%−<0.134% to convertField goal99.3%85% to makePunt98.6%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5PRST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 9:42WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:25PRST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.1%97% to makeGo for two8.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:10WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:12WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:13WSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:34PRST Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two0.9%45% to convert
- Q4 2:02WSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:23PRST Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%−0.197% to makeGo for two0.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4297% → 97%
PRSTDrive 2FUMBLE4 plays · 30 yds · 0:253% → 3%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
97.1%
Beau Kelly pass complete to Nate Bennett for 25 yds to the PrtSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3TD4 plays · 50 yds · 1:4897% → 97%
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
97.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 22 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:363% → 3%
Q1 8:01
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+14
96.8%
Seth Vernon punt for 46 yds , Travell Harris returns for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5Uncategorized5 plays · 44 yds · 2:2897% → 97%
PRSTDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:594% → 4%
Q1 3:45
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+22
96.3%
Seth Vernon punt for 53 yds , Travell Harris returns for 22 yds to the WshSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -14 yds · 1:5996% → 96%
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-10
96.3%
BORGHI, Max rush up the middle for a gain of 9 yards to the PSU44 (WEST, Travis). PENALTY WSU Holding on GOMNESS, Konner enforced 10 yards from the WSU47 to the WSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 20
OWN 37
+8
96.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Max Borghi for 8 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
95.9%
Jayden de Laura sacked by VJ Malo and Kennedy Freeman for 0 yards to the WshSt 33Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 24
OWN 33
0
95.7%
Nick Haberer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Beau Kelly at the PrtSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 8TD12 plays · 79 yds · 5:414% → 8%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
95.7%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Darien Chase for 12 yds to the PrtSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
95.6%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Beau Kelly for 18 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+5
94.9%
Davis Alexander pass complete to George McCorley for 5 yds to the WshSt 35Similar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
94.3%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Darien Chase for 13 yds to the WshSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9TD4 plays · 46 yds · 0:5194% → 95%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
93.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 19 yds to the PrtSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:356% → 6%
WSUDrive 11TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0094% → 96%
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+29
94.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 29 yds to the PrtSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 12FG7 plays · 36 yds · 1:555% → 5%
WSUDrive 13TD6 plays · 73 yds · 1:3995% → 97%
Q2 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+15
95.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Mitchell Quinn for 15 yds to the PrtSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+14
95.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Mitchell Quinn for 14 yds to the PrtSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
97.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 19 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 14INT3 plays · 11 yds · 0:254% → 4%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.3%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Nate Bennett for 6 yds to the PrtSt 31Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
96.2%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Malik Walker for 5 yds to the PrtSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
96.2%
Davis Alexander pass intercepted return for no gain to the PrtSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15FG5 plays · 34 yds · 0:2397% → 99%
PRSTDrive 16DOWNS11 plays · 58 yds · 4:012% → 2%
Q3 13:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
98.2%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Beau Kelly for 15 yds to the PrtSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
98.3%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Darien Chase for 4 yds to the PrtSt 48Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+13
98.2%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Beau Kelly for 13 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
97.9%
PORTLAND ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the WshSt 44Similar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+14
98.0%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Nate Bennett for 14 yds to the WshSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17DOWNS8 plays · 52 yds · 3:2099% → 98%
PRSTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:272% → 2%
WSUDrive 19TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0199% → 100%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
98.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Joey Hobert for 14 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
98.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the PrtSt 48Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+15
98.6%
PORTLAND ST Penalty, Personal Foul (VJ Malo) to the PrtSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
98.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 19 yds to the PrtSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Beau Kelly for 10 yds to the PrtSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.9%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Malik Walker for 13 yds to the PrtSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Beau Kelly for no gain to the PrtSt 48Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 8
50
0
99.9%
Davis Alexander sacked by Brennan Jackson and Willie Taylor III for 0 yards to the PrtSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q4 13:25
2ND & 14
OWN 3
+6
99.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 6 yds to the WshSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 22DOWNS6 plays · 17 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Darien Chase for 5 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:17100% → 100%
Q4 9:31
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Nick Haberer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Beau Kelly at the PrtSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 24TD6 plays · 56 yds · 2:400% → 1%
Q4 7:57
3RD & 4
50
+9
99.9%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Darien Chase for 9 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Job Dockery for 2 yds to the WshSt 39Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+39
99.3%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Beau Kelly for 39 yds for a TD (Cody Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 25TD8 plays · 43 yds · 4:1799% → 100%
PRSTDrive 26TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:300% → 1%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
100.0%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Beau Kelly for 33 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
100.0%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Bishop Mitchell for 5 yds to the WshSt 37Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
99.9%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Nate Bennett for 11 yds to the WshSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.9%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Beau Kelly for 5 yds to the WshSt 15Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.3%
Davis Alexander pass complete to Nate Bennett for 3 yds for a TD (Cody Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Dean Janikowski 23 yd FG GOOD
+2
TD · Q2 10:25
Davis Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Cody Williams KICK)
-1.9
TD · Q2 1:07
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 19 yds for a TD
+1.9