Try the model
WSU

Washington State 21 at Central Michigan 24

CMU
2021 · Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl · Dec 31, 2021 · Sun Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreWSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:56 · Andrew Boyle punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the WshSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense+22.6Pregame prior−6.4Score differential+14.6Garbage-time factor+4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Time remaining+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:57: Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +8.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:48: Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Richardson pass to Kalil Pimpleton for Two-Point Conversion) — CMU win probability +13.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:02: Travell Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +15.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:24: Victor Gabalis pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 5 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:13: Victor Gabalis pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 16 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +32.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11WSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 14:30CMU 4th & 15 at CMU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:40WSU 4th & 9 at WSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:39CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:11WSU 4th & 4 at WSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:51CMU 4th & 7 at WSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:33WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:18CMU 4th & 7 at WSU 34, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:35CMU 4th & 7 at WSU 46, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:29WSU 4th & 11 at CMU 13, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:09CMU 4th & 10 at WSU 42, up 13
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:36WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 16, down 13
    Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:36CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 41, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:34WSU 4th & 17 at WSU 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:57WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:47WSU 4th & 12 at WSU 16, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:56WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 4, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:07CMU 4th & 9 at WSU 26, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−2.3
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:24WSU 4th & 5 at CMU 5, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−8.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:37WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.4%−3.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:11CMU 4th & 3 at WSU 25, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%−1.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−11.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:49WSU 4th & 13 at CMU 44, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−0.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    11.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:52CMU 4th & 3 at WSU 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%−0.7
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:41CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 32, up 3
    Close callPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%−0.5
    average punt
  24. Q4 2:04WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 0:57CMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:48CMU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:02WSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:24WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:13WSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2634% → 35%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
34.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
34.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.5%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mitchell Quinn) to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 14:30
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
34.6%
Luke Elzinga punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WshSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1965% → 65%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
34.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 3 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
34.8%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the WshSt 32Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-3
35.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 29Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+1
35.5%
Nick Haberer punt for 56 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 1 yd to the CMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3136% → 36%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
35.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+1
35.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 1 yd to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 2
OWN 24
-1
35.8%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
35.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 54 yds, downed at the WshSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:1964% → 63%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
36.2%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Troy Hairston II for a loss of 10 yards to the WshSt 13 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tyrece Woods Jr.) to the WshSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
36.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
36.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 6 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
36.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Donovan OllieSimilar
Q1 9:11
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
37.0%
Nick Haberer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:5637% → 39%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+38
36.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 38 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
37.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 10 yds to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
38.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
38.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
38.2%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the WshSt 31Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+49
38.7%
Marshall Meeder 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5661% → 60%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
38.9%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the WshSt 18Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
39.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Nakia WatsonSimilar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
39.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Joey HobertSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+52
40.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CENTMICH 40 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brian Edwards) to the CMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:0539% → 43%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
39.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
39.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Remi SimmonsSimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+30
39.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 30 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
41.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 5 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
41.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-1
41.5%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 29Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 2
OPP 29
-5
40.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Dallas Dixon) to the WshSt 34Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+52
43.3%
Marshall Meeder 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:4445% → 53%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
45.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Hunter Buczkowski for 11 yds to the WshSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
45.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 11 yds to the WshSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -21 yds · 1:2250% → 48%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
49.8%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WshSt 27Similar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 15
OWN 27
-17
50.4%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Thomas Incoom for a loss of 17 yards to the WshSt 10Similar
Q1 0:06
2ND & 32
OWN 10
-2
51.2%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 8Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 34
OWN 8
+3
51.8%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the WshSt 11Similar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 31
OWN 11
0
52.0%
Nick Haberer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the WshSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3056% → 57%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
56.2%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-10
56.1%
Nichols III, Lew rush for 12 yards to the WASHST39, PENALTY CENTMICH holding 10 yards to the CENTMICH39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 22
OWN 39
+15
56.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 15 yds to the WshSt 46Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
57.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas DixonSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
56.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 62 yds · 1:5746% → 44%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
54.3%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the WshSt 16Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+32
54.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 32 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+40
54.0%
Nakia Watson run for 40 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
53.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
53.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
55.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Calvin Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 11
OPP 13
-12
56.5%
Nick Haberer run for a loss of 12 yards to the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:4760% → 63%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
60.5%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
60.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 9 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+22
62.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 22 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
63.2%
Joel Wilson run for no gain to the WshSt 42Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-10
64.2%
Nichols III, Lew rush for 7 yards to the WASHST35, PENALTY CENTMICH holding 10 yards to the CENTMICH48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 20
OWN 48
0
63.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 20
OWN 48
+10
63.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 10 yds to the WshSt 42Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
63.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3038% → 36%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
62.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Calvin Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+3
62.8%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the WshSt 11Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+5
64.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 5 yds to the WshSt 16Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
64.4%
Nick Haberer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5467% → 66%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
67.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
66.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
66.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+10
65.8%
Luke Elzinga punt for 47 yds , Travell Harris returns for 10 yds to the WshSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5635% → 33%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
64.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-7
65.6%
Jayden de Laura sacked by John Wesley Whiteside for a loss of 7 yards to the WshSt 15Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 17
OWN 15
0
66.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q2 2:34
4TH & 17
OWN 15
+45
67.3%
Nick Haberer punt for 39 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 45 yds to the WshSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4673% → 87%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 0
OPP 9
-5
72.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Deiyantei Powell-Woods) to the WshSt 14Similar
Q2 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
-1
71.9%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 15Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
73.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
86.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Richardson pass to Kalil Pimpleton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1816% → 16%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
84.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Joey Hobert for 5 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
83.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Donovan OllieSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+2
84.2%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
84.3%
Nick Haberer punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:3388% → 88%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
88.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
88.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5315% → 13%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
85.5%
Nakia Watson run for 6 yds to the WshSt 24Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
85.1%
Victor Gabalis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:25
3RD & 4
OWN 24
-8
85.9%
Victor Gabalis sacked by Troy Hairston II for a loss of 8 yards to the WshSt 16Similar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 12
OWN 16
0
86.6%
Andrew Boyle punt for 48 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for no gain to the CMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:1989% → 91%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
88.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 23 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
89.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
89.3%
Darius Bracy run for 1 yd to the WshSt 40Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+12
89.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 12 yds to the WshSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
90.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 18 yds to the WshSt 10 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Derrick Langford) to the WshSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
90.5%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the WshSt 5Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+1
91.3%
TEAM run for 1 yd to the WshSt 4 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WshSt Jahad WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5910% → 8%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
89.9%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the WshSt 4Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+1
90.7%
Victor Gabalis run for 1 yd to the WshSt 5Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 9
OWN 5
-1
91.3%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 4Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 10
OWN 4
0
91.7%
Andrew Boyle punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the WshSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22MISSED FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4093% → 93%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
92.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 17 yds to the WshSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
92.8%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the WshSt 27Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
92.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+1
92.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the WshSt 26Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
92.5%
Marshall Meeder 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:588% → 22%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
92.5%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 25Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+4
93.1%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 4 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+55
93.3%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 55 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
92.2%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Travell Harris for 8 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 2
OPP 8
0
93.3%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 2
OPP 8
-2
93.9%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 10Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+5
94.3%
Gabalis, Victor pass incomplete, PENALTY CENTMICH personal foul (Hairston II, Troy) 5 yards to the CENTMICH5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHST.Similar
Q3 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.2%
Travell Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
78.1%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
85.8%
Daniel Richardson pass intercepted Travion Brown return for no gain to the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:1821% → 34%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
79.5%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+18
80.3%
Nakia Watson run for 13 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Daedae Hill) to the CMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.9%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Lincoln Victor for no gain to the CMich 5Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.3%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Travell HarrisSimilar
Q3 2:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.6%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Donovan OllieSimilar
Q3 2:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.0%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 5 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26MISSED FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:3674% → 82%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.9%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+12
73.9%
Richardson, Daniel pass incomplete to Dixon, Dallas, PENALTY WASHST pass interference (Langford, Derrick) 12 yards to the CENTMICH36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CENTMICH.Similar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
77.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 35Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+11
76.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 11 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
79.6%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+36
80.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 36 yds to the WshSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
82.2%
Darius Bracy run for 11 yds to the WshSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
83.1%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 10Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
83.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q4 13:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
82.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 3 yds to the WshSt 7Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 0
OPP 7
+25
81.8%
Marshall Meeder 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ron Stone Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5424% → 21%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
76.3%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the WshSt 23Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
77.4%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 8 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
77.1%
Victor Gabalis run for 1 yd to the WshSt 32Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
78.7%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the WshSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 28FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5986% → 85%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
86.0%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 6 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+1
86.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the WshSt 25Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
85.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas DixonSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
85.0%
Marshall Meeder 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:0815% → 12%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
84.9%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
85.2%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 13 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
84.3%
Victor Gabalis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
84.5%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Donovan OllieSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-3
85.4%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
88.5%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Travell HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:4890% → 91%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
89.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-10
90.6%
Pimpleton, Kalil rush for 4 yards to the WASHST48, PENALTY CENTMICH holding (Ferris, Tyden) 10 yards to the CENTMICH38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+13
90.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 13 yds to the WshSt 49Similar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
91.4%
Darius Bracy run for no gain to the WshSt 49Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
91.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 31TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:128% → 42%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+56
91.9%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 56 yds Donovan Ollie fumbled, recovered by WshSt Donovan Ollie for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
89.3%
Victor Gabalis sacked by Thomas Incoom for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+6
89.8%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Travell Harris for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+10
90.4%
Gabalis, Victor pass incomplete, PENALTY CENTMICH pass interference (Hill, Daedae) 10 yards to the CENTMICH16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHST.Similar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
58.2%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 16 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 32PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:3281% → 86%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 20Similar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
80.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
83.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
84.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 3 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
86.0%
Luke Elzinga punt for 54 yds, downed at the WshSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 33DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3314% → 11%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
85.9%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Donovan Ollie for 5 yds to the WshSt 19Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
87.6%
Victor Gabalis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
88.3%
Victor Gabalis pass incomplete to Lincoln VictorSimilar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 5
OWN 19
+4
89.1%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the WshSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 34END OF GAME
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:2692% → 95%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
91.6%
Daniel Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 26Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 13
OPP 26
-2
92.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 28Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 15
OPP 28
-2
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:13
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Lincoln Victor for 16 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-32.2
TD · Q3 2:24
Victor Gabalis pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 5 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q3 4:02
Travell Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com