Washington State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1965th
  Defense+0.2611th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.7%65th
  Defense45.3%24th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3291st
  Defense+1.3013th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.082nd
  Defense+0.1429th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2766th
  Defense+0.379th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.1%44th
  Defense50.3%20th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense39.3%90th
  Defense35.1%31st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.5013th
  Defense2.8946th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense22.6%20th
  Defense23.1%84th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.2%37th
  Defense1.3%7th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Washington State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   RUTG
2. L
   NEV
3. W
   PRST
4. L
   ORE
5. W
   UTAH
6. L
   CAL
7. L
   STAN
8. L
   ARIZ
9. L
   USC
10. W
    ORST
11. L
    ASU
12. L
    WASH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Washington State.

Players, 2014

1. Connor HallidayQB442 plays · +0.293 pts/play · 11th of 199 QBs
   2.42WAR1.64 to 3.18
2. Luke FalkQB218 plays · +0.229 pts/play · 107th of 199 QBs
   0.94WAR0.61 to 1.28
3. Vince MayleWR121 plays · +0.183 pts/play · 8th of 469 WRs
   0.41WAR0.21 to 0.64
4. Jamal MorrowRB131 plays · +0.092 pts/play · 102nd of 350 RBs
   0.23WAR0.12 to 0.35
5. River CracraftWR82 plays · +0.136 pts/play · 65th of 469 WRs
   0.21WAR0.06 to 0.34
6. Isiah MyersWR89 plays · +0.122 pts/play · 68th of 469 WRs
   0.20WAR0.07 to 0.33
7. Dom WilliamsWR41 plays · +0.203 pts/play · 113th of 469 WRs
   0.16WAR0.08 to 0.22
8. Robert LewisWR39 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 176th of 469 WRs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.17

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Washington State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Washington State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UTAHQ4 1:33 4th & 3 at UTAH 44, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−5.3 pts
2. at ORSTQ3 3:50 4th & 10 at ORST 28, up 2Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−2.0 pts
3. vs WASHQ2 6:52 4th & 1 at WSU 29, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
4. at UTAHQ4 8:08 4th & 14 at UTAH 20, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.8 pts
5. vs RUTGQ4 14:41 4th & 3 at WSU 27, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. vs RUTGQ1 4:29 4th & 3 at RUTG 3, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. at STANQ2 13:00 4th & 1 at WSU 12, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at STANQ2 2:33 4th & 3 at WSU 29, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

124th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Washington State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   RUTG
2. L

   NEV
3. W

   PRST
4. L

   ORE
5. W

   UTAH
6. L

   CAL
7. L

   STAN
8. L

   ARIZ
9. L

   USC
10. W

    ORST
11. L

    ASU
12. L

    WASH

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Washington State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−2.33
• Possession & field position+0.05
• Clock−0.10
• Timeouts−0.04
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.32

Game by game

• RUTGL 38-41 vs RUTG73% → 7%Before kickoff +23 · On the field −66: Scoreboard −53, Clock −4
• NEVL 13-24 at NEV63% → 4%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −44, Possession & field position +2
• PRSTW 59-21 vs PRST95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +7
• OREL 31-38 vs ORE11% → 4%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −22, Clock −1
• UTAHW 28-27 at UTAH29% → 87%Before kickoff −21 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +42, Clock +4
• CALL 59-60 vs CAL64% → 7%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −53, Clock −3
• STANL 17-34 at STAN11% → 1%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −16, Timeouts −1
• ARIZL 37-59 vs ARIZ44% → 0%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −47, Clock −3
• USCL 17-44 vs USC31% → 0%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −36, Possession & field position −1
• ORSTW 39-32 at ORST30% → 91%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +52, Clock +1
• ASUL 31-52 at ASU14% → 0%Before kickoff −36 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −18
• WASHL 13-31 vs WASH47% → 2%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −47, Clock −4

Points of win probability, from Washington State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 44-47 WSU (2017) - Washington State dropped to a 1.9% win probability before pulling it out.