2014 · Week 1 · Aug 28, 2014 · Lumen Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:52 · Jordan Dascalo punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:58: Paul James run for 56 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +11.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:56: Connor Halliday pass complete to Isiah Myers for 14 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +15.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:50: Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 29 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +32.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:13: Connor Halliday pass complete to Rickey Galvin for 5 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +24.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:24: Paul James run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +49.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 11:48RUTG 4th & 10 at WSU 36, up 7Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it31.2%−<0.130% to convertField goal31.2%42% to makePuntTheir call31.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:08WSU 4th & 2 at RUTG 6, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.3%52% to convertField goal67.0%−0.391% to makePunt65.6%−1.6average punt
- Q1 4:29WSU 4th & 3 at RUTG 3, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snapGo for it65.7%44% to convertField goalTheir call65.3%−0.493% to makePunt63.2%−2.4average punt
- Q1 4:29RUTG 4th & 1 at WSU 47, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.3%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt32.5%−0.9average punt
- Q2 12:52WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 42, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snapGo for it57.2%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.5%average punt
- Q2 9:31RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 34, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it44.9%−0.640% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.5%average punt
- Q2 0:36RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 44, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snapGo for it41.0%−1.420% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.4%average punt
- Q3 7:48RUTG 4th & 2 at WSU 19, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snapGo for it35.0%56% to convertField goalTheir call33.6%−1.477% to makePunt25.0%−10.0average punt
- Q4 14:46RUTG 4th & 7 at WSU 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snapGo for it20.7%−1.128% to convertField goalTheir call21.8%91% to makePunt9.3%−12.5average punt
- Q4 14:41WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 27, up 4Close callPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it72.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.9%−0.8average punt
- Q4 8:07RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 16, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 26.5% before the snapGo for it26.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.8%−2.2average punt
- Q4 0:59WSU 4th & 13 at WSU 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.4%20% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt12.3%−2.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 14:44RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.9%97% to makeGo for two29.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:58RUTG Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.0%97% to makeGo for two42.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:09WSU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.5%97% to makeGo for two60.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:58RUTG Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call50.9%97% to makeGo for two50.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:42WSU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.2%97% to makeGo for two56.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 12:27WSU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.8%97% to makeGo for two68.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:56WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.0%97% to makeGo for two74.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:50RUTG Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.1%97% to makeGo for two52.1%−1.045% to convert
- Q4 8:13WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.7%97% to makeGo for two71.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:24RUTG Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.0%97% to makeGo for two61.5%−0.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1TD2 plays · 78 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
72.4%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 78 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2INT9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
72.3%
Connor Halliday pass complete to River Cracraft for 2 yds to the WshSt 23Similar
Q1 14:38
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+12
72.3%
Connor Halliday pass complete to River Cracraft for 12 yds to the WshSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
72.3%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Calvin Green for 2 yds to the WshSt 37Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
72.3%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 4 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q1 14:38
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
72.4%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 5 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
72.4%
Connor Halliday pass intercepted Justin Goodwin return for no gain to the Rutgr 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
50
+5
70.7%
Nova, Gary pass complete to Burton, Michael for 1 yard to the WSU49, PENALTY WSU offside defense (Cooper, Xavier) 5 yards to the WSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
70.7%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Tyler Kroft, broken up by Darryl MonroeSimilar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
70.9%
Tim Gleeson punt for 24 yds, fair catch by River Cracraft at the WshSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4DOWNS7 plays · 83 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 8:08
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+5
68.9%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Isiah Myers for 5 yds to the WshSt 19Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+67
68.7%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Rickey Galvin for 52 yds to the WASHST 29 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Davon Jacobs) to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+10
69.9%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 10 yds to the Rutgr 6Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
69.6%
Connor Halliday pass incomplete to Isiah Myers, broken up by Kevin SnyderSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+1
69.3%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 1 yd to the Rutgr 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
67.8%
Gary Nova pass intercepted Tana Pritchard return for 9 yds to the Rutgr 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6FG4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3369% → 69%
RUTGDrive 7TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:3131% → 43%
WSUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
RUTGDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 2:0343% → 42%
Q2 9:31
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+1
57.9%
Joseph Roth punt for 37 yds , River Cracraft returns for 1 yd to the WshSt 35 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Daquawn Brown) to the WshSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0857% → 66%
Q2 9:17
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+64
57.5%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Dom Williams for 64 yds to the Rutgr 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 0
OPP 9
+5
61.7%
[NH], Halliday,Connor rush for 1 yard to the RU8, out-of-bounds, PENALTY RU holding (Glashen, Gareef) 5 yards to the RU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
60.1%
Connor Halliday pass incomplete to Vince Mayle, broken up by Gareef GlashenSimilar
Q2 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
66.1%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Isiah Myers for 4 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD5 plays · 73 yds · 2:0637% → 50%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
62.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 6 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12TD10 plays · 72 yds · 3:1052% → 66%
Q2 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+12
51.9%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 12 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+13
52.3%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Isiah Myers for 13 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
53.6%
[NH], Morrow, Jamal rush for 17 yards to the RU28 (Snyder, Kevin), PENALTY WSU holding (Sorenson, Riley) 10 yards to the WSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+11
52.3%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 11 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+18
53.5%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Rickey Galvin for 18 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
65.5%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 26 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:5844% → 41%
Q2 1:34
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-7
56.3%
Gary Nova sacked by Ivan McLennan and Xavier Cooper for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 13
OWN 44
+3
59.0%
Tim Gleeson punt for 39 yds , River Cracraft returns for 3 yds to the WshSt 47 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Vince Mayle) to the WshSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14MISSED FG6 plays · 57 yds · 0:2459% → 61%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+29
59.2%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Kristoff Williams for 29 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+27
57.6%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 12 yds to the WASHST 48 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3359% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.6%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Gerard Wicks for 5 yds to the WshSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
59.1%
Connor Halliday pass complete to River Cracraft for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+13
58.9%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Gerard Wicks for 13 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+11
61.7%
Connor Halliday pass complete to River Cracraft for 11 yds to the Rutgr 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
63.5%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 24 yds to the Rutgr 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
73.2%
Connor Halliday pass complete to River Cracraft for 7 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16FG11 plays · 54 yds · 4:3332% → 41%
WSUDrive 17TD11 plays · 63 yds · 3:4665% → 83%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
65.1%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 7 yds to the WshSt 44Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
67.2%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 5 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
67.2%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Calvin Green for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+23
67.8%
Connor Halliday pass complete to River Cracraft for 23 yds to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
68.8%
Connor Halliday pass complete to River Cracraft for 4 yds to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+13
68.8%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 13 yds to the Rutgr 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-7
68.8%
Connor Halliday sacked by Kemoko Turay for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
82.7%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Isiah Myers for 14 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18FG12 plays · 68 yds · 3:5921% → 29%
Q3 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
78.5%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 4 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
77.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to Michael Burton for 34 yds to the WshSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+20
73.2%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 20 yds to the WshSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
RUTGDrive 20TD6 plays · 73 yds · 2:2628% → 67%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+30
72.1%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 30 yds to the WshSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+2
67.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Michael Burton for 2 yds to the WshSt 35Similar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
65.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 3 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
33.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 29 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21TD9 plays · 67 yds · 2:3145% → 78%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
45.0%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Theron West for 6 yds to the WshSt 39 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Vince Mayle) to the WshSt 29Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 14
OWN 29
+10
44.2%
Halliday,Connor pass incomplete to Galvin, Rickey, PENALTY RU holding (Glashen, Gareef) 10 yards to the WSU39, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
49.0%
[NH], Halliday,Connor pass complete to Green, Calvin for 2 yards to the WSU45 (Glashen, Gareef), PENALTY RU offside defense (Kirksey, Kennet) 5 yards to the WSU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+43
49.8%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Isiah Myers for 43 yds to the Rutgr 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.8%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Rickey Galvin for 5 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q4 8:07
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
75.6%
Joseph Roth punt for 35 yds , River Cracraft returns for no gain to the 50 yard line River Cracraft fumbled, forced by Johnathan Aiken, recovered by Rutgr Anthony Cioffi , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23TD10 plays · 50 yds · 3:4933% → 83%
Q4 7:13
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+5
63.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 5 yds to the WshSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
63.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 11 yds to the WshSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
65.9%
Nova, Gary pass incomplete to Tsimis, John, PENALTY WSU holding (Brown, Daquawn) 7 yards to the WSU7, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 24DOWNS9 plays · 14 yds · 2:1935% → 22%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
34.7%
Connor Halliday pass incomplete to Dom Williams, broken up by Delon StephensonSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
33.8%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Kristoff Williams for 7 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 31
-5
34.5%
[NH], PENALTY WSU false start (Madison, Cole) 5 yards to the WSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+15
32.1%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Isiah Myers for 15 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-9
39.2%
Connor Halliday sacked by Kemoko Turay for a loss of 9 yards to the WshSt 32Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 19
OWN 32
+6
28.3%
Connor Halliday pass complete to Vince Mayle for 6 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
21.5%
Connor Halliday pass incomplete to River Cracraft, broken up by Johnathan AikenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25END OF GAME4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0392% → 93%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:24
Paul James run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
-49.2
TD · Q4 10:50
Gary Nova pass complete to John Tsimis for 29 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
-32.6
TD · Q4 8:13
Connor Halliday pass complete to Rickey Galvin for 5 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
+24.4