Washington State

Profile vs. FBS, 2015

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1568th
  Defense+0.0950th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.9%88th
  Defense44.3%34th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1322nd
  Defense+1.1759th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0331st
  Defense+0.0650th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2061st
  Defense+0.1352nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense53.3%90th
  Defense47.6%48th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.7%82nd
  Defense37.7%16th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8039th
  Defense2.8845th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.2%57th
  Defense22.9%74th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.9%56th
  Defense1.7%33rd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2015

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Washington State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   PRST
2. W
   RUTG
3. W
   WYO
4. L
   CAL
5. W
   ORE
6. W
   ORST
7. W
   ARIZ
8. L
   STAN
9. W
   ASU
10. W
    UCLA
11. W
    COLO
12. L
    WASH
13. W
    MIA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Washington State.

Players, 2015

1. Luke FalkQB645 plays · +0.252 pts/play · 6th of 205 QBs
   3.04WAR2.04 to 4.11
2. Gabe MarksWR132 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 1st of 411 WRs
   0.47WAR0.25 to 0.68
3. Dom WilliamsWR108 plays · +0.203 pts/play · 9th of 411 WRs
   0.41WAR0.21 to 0.58
4. Gerard WicksRB128 plays · +0.073 pts/play · 141st of 333 RBs
   0.17WAR0.09 to 0.27
5. Erik PowellPK22 plays · +0.423 pts/play · 18th of 115 kickers
   0.17WAR0.12 to 0.23
6. River CracraftWR65 plays · +0.136 pts/play · 110th of 411 WRs
   0.17WAR0.05 to 0.27
7. Robert LewisWR51 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 125th of 411 WRs
   0.15WAR0.09 to 0.22
8. Jamal MorrowRB75 plays · +0.089 pts/play · 178th of 333 RBs
   0.13WAR0.06 to 0.20

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Washington State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2015

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  54154157th of 128Roster talent: 541, 57th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  18318346th of 128Recruiting: 183, 46th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  42%42%102nd of 127Returning production: 42%, 102nd of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +4.2+4.261st of 128SP+ rating: +4.2, 61st of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2015

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Washington State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.10 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at OREQ4 3:53 4th & 5 at ORE 5, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
2. vs MIAQ3 1:43 4th & 1 at WSU 43, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
3. vs MIAQ4 13:43 4th & 1 at WSU 27, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
4. at RUTGQ4 12:44 4th & 3 at RUTG 19, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. vs PRSTQ4 11:44 4th & 5 at PRST 11, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
6. at ARIZQ4 15:00 4th & 10 at ARIZ 33, up 10Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs MIAQ4 10:56 4th & 5 at midfield, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. vs PRSTQ2 3:52 4th & 3 at WSU 42, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2015

4th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Washington State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   PRST
2. W

   RUTG
3. W

   WYO
4. L

   CAL
5. W

   ORE
6. W

   ORST
7. W

   ARIZ
8. L

   STAN
9. W

   ASU
10. W

    UCLA
11. W

    COLO
12. L

    WASH
13. W

    MIA

What moved it, 2015

Every game starts at Washington State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.84
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock−0.12
• Timeouts+0.23
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+1.00

Game by game

• PRSTL 17-24 vs PRST75% → 6%Before kickoff +25 · On the field −69: Scoreboard −56, Clock −4
• RUTGW 37-34 at RUTG35% → 94%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• WYOW 31-14 vs WYO94% → 99%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +9
• CALL 28-34 at CAL15% → 10%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −17, Timeouts −1
• OREW 45-38 at ORE9% → 80%Before kickoff −41 · On the field +71: Scoreboard +33, Timeouts +17
• ORSTW 52-31 vs ORST74% → 100%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +29, Clock −1
• ARIZW 45-42 at ARIZ25% → 95%Before kickoff −25 · On the field +69: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• STANL 28-30 vs STAN18% → 21%Before kickoff −32 · On the field +3: Scoreboard −26, Clock −3
• ASUW 38-24 vs ASU45% → 99%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +2
• UCLAW 31-27 at UCLA24% → 83%Before kickoff −26 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +40, Possession & field position +3
• COLOW 27-3 vs COLO83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +20
• WASHL 10-45 at WASH36% → 0%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −36
• MIAW 20-14 vs MIA50% → 96%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +3

Points of win probability, from Washington State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 44-47 WSU (2017) - Washington State dropped to a 1.9% win probability before pulling it out.