2015 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2015 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreCOLO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:51 · Erik Powell 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:14: Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 3:19: Gerard Wicks run for 24 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST down — WSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:47: Erik Powell 31 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:39: Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 11 yds to the WshSt 35 for a 1ST down — WSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:25: Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 16 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 13:05WSU 4th & 3 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 84.3% before the snapGo for it84.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:26COLO 4th & 5 at WSU 30, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.6%41% to convertField goalTheir call16.6%−<0.156% to makePunt16.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:26WSU 4th & 6 at COLO 26, tiedClose callWent for it · 83.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.7%−<0.139% to convertField goal83.7%64% to makePunt83.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:58COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:43WSU 4th & 6 at COLO 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.9%40% to convertField goal81.7%−0.138% to makePunt81.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:05COLO 4th & 10 at WSU 40, down 7Close callPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it16.6%30% to convertField goal16.5%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call16.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00WSU 4th & 1 at COLO 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call83.6%71% to convertField goal83.0%−0.758% to makePunt81.6%−2.0average punt
- Q2 6:37COLO 4th & 7 at WSU 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.8%37% to convertField goal12.3%−0.536% to makePunt12.3%−0.5average punt
- Q2 3:19COLO 4th & 8 at WSU 16, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snapGo for it12.3%−0.332% to convertField goalTheir call12.6%81% to makePunt10.2%−2.4average punt
- Q2 1:20WSU 4th & 11 at WSU 43, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snapGo for it87.6%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.1%average punt
- Q3 10:47WSU 4th & 10 at COLO 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snapGo for it88.9%−0.826% to convertField goalTheir call89.7%84% to makePunt85.1%−4.6average punt
- Q3 10:40COLO 4th & 16 at COLO 26, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it6.5%−1.715% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.2%average punt
- Q3 7:16WSU 4th & 4 at COLO 27, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call93.9%−0.362% to makePunt90.8%−3.4average punt
- Q3 2:44COLO 4th & 6 at WSU 7, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call5.6%91% to makePunt0.1%−5.5average punt
- Q4 14:25COLO 4th & 19 at WSU 42, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%−0.511% to convertField goal1.5%−0.230% to makePunt1.7%average punt
- Q4 11:41WSU 4th & 5 at COLO 37, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%42% to convertField goal98.7%−0.140% to makePunt98.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 7:40COLO 4th & 3 at WSU 3, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%44% to convertField goal1.4%−0.393% to makePunt-0.0%−1.7average punt
- Q4 3:51WSU 4th & 14 at COLO 20, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.217% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%75% to makePunt98.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 3:50COLO 4th & 18 at COLO 40, down 24Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 1:17WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.9%97% to makeGo for two82.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:14WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.1%97% to makeGo for two87.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:25WSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 1:5583% → 82%
COLODrive 2MISSED FG10 plays · 49 yds · 2:3118% → 18%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
82.4%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 11 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
82.3%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the WshSt 38 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+11
82.0%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Shay Fields for 11 yds to the WshSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3DOWNS9 plays · 49 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 10:26
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+7
81.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 7 yds to the WshSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
82.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gerard Wicks for no gain to the Colo 30Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
82.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyrin Priester for 4 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
82.0%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Dom Williams, broken up by Isaiah OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4DOWNS6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q1 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+8
80.6%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5TD9 plays · 42 yds · 3:2681% → 82%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
80.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for no gain to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
80.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Keith Harrington for 8 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 1
OPP 33
-5
80.1%
Wicks, Gerard rush for 2 yards to the COLO31 (Gilbert, Jimmie), PENALTY WSU illegal formation (Harrington, K.) 5 yards to the COLO38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+29
79.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 29 yds to the Colo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
80.6%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe Marks, broken up by Ken CrawleySimilar
Q1 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
80.4%
Falk, Luke pass incomplete to Marks, Gabe, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Crawley, Ken) 1 yards to the COLO1, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
80.9%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 22 yds to the WshSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7TD11 plays · 96 yds · 5:0281% → 87%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+12
81.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 12 yds to the WshSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
82.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 17 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
82.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Keith Harrington for no gain to the Colo 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
82.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 7 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+8
81.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 8 yds to the Colo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
82.2%
Falk, Luke pass complete to Thompson, John for 3 yards to the COLO18 (Awuzie, Chidobe), PENALTY WSU illegal formation 5 yards to the COLO26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+15
82.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 15 yds to the Colo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
87.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8MISSED FG19 plays · 69 yds · 6:4915% → 15%
Q2 10:08
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
84.8%
Cade Apsay sacked by Darryl Paulo for 0 yards to the Colo 29 Cade Apsay fumbled, recovered by Colo Nelson Spruce , return for 0 yards for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+29
84.4%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 29 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-15
83.3%
Apsay, Cade pass complete to Fields, Shay for 6 yards to the WSU28 (Taliulu, Taylor), PENALTY COLO pass interference (Fields, Shay) 15 yards to the WSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 17
OPP 49
+15
85.2%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Donovan Lee for 15 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+11
84.7%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 11 yds to the WshSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
83.6%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 10 yds to the WshSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+6
83.3%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 6 yds to the WshSt 11Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
83.8%
Cade Apsay pass incomplete to Nelson Spruce, broken up by Ivan McLennanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5988% → 88%
Q2 3:19
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-3
88.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gerard Wicks for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
COLODrive 11INT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
88.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Colo Cade ApsaySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+3
88.4%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Donovan Lee for 3 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
88.5%
Cade Apsay pass intercepted Charleston White return for no gain to the Colo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12FG11 plays · 32 yds · 2:5790% → 93%
Q3 13:44
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+5
89.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 5 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
89.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for no gain to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
89.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 11 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
89.5%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Kyle Sweet, broken up by Rick GamboaSimilar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+10
89.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 10 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
89.1%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe Marks, broken up by Isaiah OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 10:40
3RD & 15
OWN 27
-1
92.0%
Cade Apsay sacked by Ivan McLennan for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14MISSED FG9 plays · 39 yds · 1:5594% → 94%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
93.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to John Thompson for 11 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
94.0%
Luke Falk sacked by Samson Kafovalu for a loss of 7 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+15
93.8%
Bender, Peyton pass incomplete to Williams, Dom, PENALTY COLO pass interference (Crawley, Ken) 15 yards to the COLO33, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
94.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 6 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
93.9%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Dom Williams, broken up by Ken CrawleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15FG10 plays · 66 yds · 4:327% → 10%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
92.9%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 8 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+6
91.8%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 6 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+15
92.1%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Donovan Lee for 15 yds Donovan Lee fumbled, forced by Kache Palacio, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
91.4%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 3 yds to the WshSt 4Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-3
92.1%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16TD11 plays · 76 yds · 3:1493% → 99%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
93.4%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 11 yds to the WshSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Tyler Baker for 5 yds to the WshSt 40Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
93.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 9 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
93.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+5
93.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 5 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+9
94.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Dom Williams for 9 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
98.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 16 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17INT10 plays · 33 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+19
98.4%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Shay Fields for 19 yds to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
98.2%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Sean Irwin for 3 yds to the WshSt 30Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-12
98.4%
Cade Apsay sacked by Destiny Vaeao for a loss of 12 yards to the WshSt 42Similar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 19
OPP 42
+42
98.5%
Cade Apsay pass intercepted Taylor Taliulu return for 42 yds to the Colo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18INT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Keith Harrington for 5 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
98.9%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Gabe Marks, broken up by Kenneth OlugbodeSimilar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+27
98.8%
Peyton Bender pass intercepted Tedric Thompson return for 27 yds to the WshSt 10 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19DOWNS9 plays · 36 yds · 3:021% → 1%
Q4 10:42
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+5
98.6%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Donovan Lee for 5 yds to the WshSt 16Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+6
98.7%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Dylan Keeney for 6 yds to the WshSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
98.7%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Nelson Spruce for 9 yds to the WshSt 2Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the WshSt 7 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Colo Cade ApsaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20FG12 plays · 72 yds · 3:5199% → 100%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
99.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 5 yds to the WshSt 13Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+24
99.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Tyler Baker for 24 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+7
99.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Robert Lewis for 7 yds to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
99.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 21 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 14
OPP 20
0
99.3%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Dom Williams, broken up by Tedric ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 23 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+11
99.5%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Dylan Keeney for 11 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
99.5%
Cade Apsay pass complete to Dylan Keeney for 14 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-8
99.5%
Cade Apsay sacked by Hercules Mata'afa for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:14
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 11 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q4 14:25
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 16 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
+3.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 3:19
Gerard Wicks run for 24 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST down
+3.7