2015 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2015 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:54 · Zach Charme punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WshSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 5:50: Cameron Van Winkle 24 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +6.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:21: Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +7.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:00: Peyton Bender pass intercepted for a TD Sidney Jones return for 69 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +12.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:14: Peyton Bender pass complete to Dom Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:55: Myles Gaskin run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +8.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 10:31WSU 4th & 5 at WASH 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snapGo for it34.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call34.8%68% to makePunt34.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 10:31WASH 4th & 11 at WASH 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snapGo for it64.6%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.8%average punt
- Q1 1:31WSU 4th & 10 at WASH 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call34.3%66% to makePunt32.1%−2.2average punt
- Q2 15:00WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 45, up 4Close callPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it66.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.5%−0.8average punt
- Q2 14:51WSU 4th & 12 at WASH 48, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snapGo for it33.4%−0.523% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%average punt
- Q2 5:50WASH 4th & 2 at WSU 6, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snapGo for it67.4%52% to convertField goalTheir call66.6%−0.991% to makePunt62.5%−4.9average punt
- Q2 5:44WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snapGo for it27.1%−1.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%average punt
- Q3 14:54WASH 4th & 25 at WSU 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snapGo for it81.1%−2.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.3%average punt
- Q3 8:54WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 20, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.627% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q4 14:49WSU 4th & 7 at WASH 47, down 21Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.2%average punt
- Q4 9:05WASH 4th & 7 at WSU 16, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%81% to makePunt97.6%−1.0average punt
- Q4 6:09WASH 4th & 10 at WSU 18, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%79% to makePunt98.2%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 4:39WASH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.5%97% to makeGo for two66.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:21WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:00WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.7%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:14WSU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.9%97% to makeGo for two8.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:38WASH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1FG11 plays · 61 yds · 4:2936% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
64.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to John Thompson for 16 yds to the WshSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
64.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gerard Wicks for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+6
64.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Robert Lewis for 6 yds to the WshSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+9
64.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 9 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
50
+21
64.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 21 yds to the Wash 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
64.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Tyler Baker for 4 yds to the Wash 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 10:31
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+4
63.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 4 yds to the Wash 24Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+10
63.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 10 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 6
OWN 38
-5
63.3%
[PUNT], PENALTY WASH delay of game (Durkee, Korey) 5 yards to the WASH33, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3FUMBLE5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
62.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to John Thompson for 12 yds to the WshSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
62.4%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 27 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-29
62.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Keith Harrington for a loss of 29 yards Keith Harrington fumbled, forced by Keishawn Bierria, recovered by Wash Azeem VictorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4TD4 plays · 41 yds · 1:4064% → 66%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
63.6%
Jake Browning run for a loss of 7 yards to the WshSt 48 Jake Browning fumbled,Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+10
63.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 10 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+12
63.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 12 yds to the WshSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
65.9%
Chico McClatcher run for 26 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5MISSED FG11 plays · 50 yds · 3:0335% → 36%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
64.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 7 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-4
64.3%
Peyton Bender sacked by Cory Littleton for a loss of 4 yards to the WshSt 28Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
64.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Robert Lewis for 3 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
63.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Tyler Baker for 19 yds to the Wash 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
63.5%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Gabe Marks, broken up by Sidney JonesSimilar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
63.9%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Gabe Marks, broken up by Sidney JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3165% → 65%
WSUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 14:51
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+23
64.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to John Thompson for 23 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
64.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 8 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+9
63.3%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Daniel Lilienthal for 9 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
63.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Robert Lewis for 5 yds to the Wash 41Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-7
62.9%
Gerard Wicks run for 3 yds to the Wash 38 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Wash 48Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 12
OPP 48
0
64.2%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Gabe Marks, broken up by Budda BakerSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
65.1%
Zach Charme punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8FG12 plays · 84 yds · 5:3465% → 71%
Q2 11:24
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+41
64.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 41 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
66.8%
Jake Browning sacked by Destiny Vaeao and Darryl Paulo for a loss of 6 yards to the WshSt 20Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 17
OPP 21
+15
65.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 15 yds to the WshSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
70.4%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 8 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+5
69.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Robert Lewis for 5 yds to the WshSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
70.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 2 yds to the WshSt 33Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
70.8%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Gabe Marks, broken up by Brian ClaySimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
71.4%
Zach Charme punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10TD8 plays · 70 yds · 2:4072% → 81%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
71.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jaydon Mickens for 9 yds to the Wash 39Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+43
73.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Isaiah Renfro for 43 yds to the WshSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
74.1%
Myles Gaskin run for no gain to the WshSt 5 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, personal foul (Destiny Vaeao) to the WshSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11FUMBLE8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0021% → 25%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
78.5%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 5 yds to the WshSt 43Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+14
77.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Dom Williams for 14 yds to the Wash 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
76.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Robert Lewis for 7 yds to the Wash 36Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
76.1%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 4 yds to the Wash 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
75.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 9 yds to the Wash 23Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-9
75.4%
Peyton Bender sacked by Joe Mathis for a loss of 9 yards to the Wash 32 Peyton Bender fumbled, recovered by Wash Jaylen Johnson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12KICKOFF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13PUNT14 plays · 30 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+14
82.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 14 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 34
-5
82.8%
WASHINGTON Penalty, false start (Siosifa Tufunga) to the WshSt 39Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 16
OPP 39
-9
82.6%
Jake Browning sacked by Hercules Mata'afa for a loss of 9 yards to the WshSt 48Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 25
OPP 48
0
81.5%
Korey Durkee punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Gabe Marks at the WshSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14INT TD6 plays · 48 yds · 1:3816% → 6%
Q3 10:38
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
83.6%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to John Thompson, broken up by Sidney JonesSimilar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+30
84.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Robert Lewis for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
50
+12
81.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Kyrin Priester for 12 yds to the Wash 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
81.9%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Dom Williams, broken up by Taniela TupouSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+69
94.0%
Peyton Bender pass intercepted for a TD Sidney Jones return for 69 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16INT4 plays · 19 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
WSUDrive 17TD6 plays · 19 yds · 2:306% → 15%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
94.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Dom Williams for 9 yds to the Wash 10Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+6
94.6%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Dom Williams for 6 yds to the Wash 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
94.2%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gerard Wicks for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 6Similar
Q3 4:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.7%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Dom Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18TD12 plays · 84 yds · 4:1789% → 98%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
89.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Darrell Daniels for 8 yds to the Wash 24Similar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
89.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Isaiah Renfro for 8 yds to the WshSt 49Similar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
90.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Marvin Hall for 8 yds to the WshSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19DOWNS9 plays · 35 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
98.0%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Dom Williams for 12 yds to the WshSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
97.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Dom Williams for 5 yds to the WshSt 35Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
97.9%
Peyton Bender pass incomplete to Gerard Wicks, broken up by Psalm Wooching for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Psalm Wooching) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
50
+8
97.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 8 yds to the Wash 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20MISSED FG9 plays · 37 yds · 4:1899% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21FUMBLE3 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.8%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 3 yds to the WshSt 23Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
98.8%
Peyton Bender sacked by Will Dissly for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 18 Peyton Bender fumbled, recovered by Wash Shane Bowman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22MISSED FG4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23FUMBLE TD1 play · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
99.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Gabe Marks for 5 yds for a TD Gabe Marks fumbled, forced by Kevin King, recovered by Wash Darren Gardenhire , return for 28 yds, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 24INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+27
99.9%
Peyton Bender pass intercepted for a TD Azeem Victor return for 27 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 25FUMBLE3 plays · 29 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
99.9%
Peyton Bender pass complete to Robert Lewis for 4 yds to the WASHINGTON 48 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, personal foul (Shane Bowman) to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
99.9%
Gerard Wicks run for 10 yds to the Wash 23 Gerard Wicks fumbled, forced by Vita Vea, recovered by Wash Kevin KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 26END OF GAME7 plays · 27 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:00
Peyton Bender pass intercepted for a TD Sidney Jones return for 69 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q3 4:14
Peyton Bender pass complete to Dom Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q4 14:55
Myles Gaskin run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
+8.1