2015 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2015 · Gesa Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:28 · Erik Powell 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:03: Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 5 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK) — WYO win probability +3.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:02: Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 35 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:17: Keith Harrington run for 36 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49: Luke Falk pass incomplete WASHINGTON ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Luke Falk) to the WshSt 39 — WSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:00: Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 15:00WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.3%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%average punt
- Q1 10:24WSU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 7Close callPunted · 91.6% before the snapGo for it91.6%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:03WYO 4th & 13 at WYO 2, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snapGo for it9.1%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%average punt
- Q1 6:29WSU 4th & 2 at WYO 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.0%56% to convertField goal89.9%−0.180% to makePunt89.3%−0.7average punt
- Q2 9:05WYO 4th & 9 at WSU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.7% before the snapGo for it14.3%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call14.6%74% to makePunt12.8%−1.8average punt
- Q2 1:31WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 49, down 7Close callPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it12.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:01WSU 4th & 11 at WSU 18, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snapGo for it85.5%−1.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.9%average punt
- Q3 14:54WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 42, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.6%−1.0average punt
- Q3 9:15WYO 4th & 2 at WSU 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.8%57% to convertField goal13.8%−1.060% to makePunt9.6%−5.3average punt
- Q3 9:10WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt86.9%−1.2average punt
- Q3 5:56WSU 4th & 4 at WSU 45, up 7Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snapGo for it88.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:28WSU 4th & 5 at WYO 5, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.1%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call89.2%92% to makePunt80.9%−8.2average punt
- Q4 10:28WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, down 10Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it9.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%−0.8average punt
- Q4 8:17WSU 4th & 23 at WSU 32, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it88.7%−2.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:29WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.3%97% to makeGo for two8.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:02WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.1%97% to makeGo for two90.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:03WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.9%97% to makeGo for two12.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:02WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.3%97% to makeGo for two87.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:17WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.4%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:00WSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
94.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2TD6 plays · 82 yds · 2:496% → 7%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
94.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 9 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+15
94.0%
COFFMAN, C. pass intercepted by Pippins, Mar. at the WSU17, Pippins, Mar. return to the WSU17, PENALTY WSU personal foul 15 yards to the WSU45, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
92.8%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 45 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
92.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 14 yds to the WshSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
92.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 3 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+12
92.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 12 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
93.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gerard Wicks for 9 yds to the Wyom 45Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-5
93.1%
Luke Falk sacked by Kevin Prosser for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
92.0%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete WYOMING Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5TD8 plays · 44 yds · 2:2792% → 92%
Q1 6:29
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+8
91.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 8 yds to the Wyom 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6TD9 plays · 63 yds · 2:539% → 13%
Q1 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.2%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 5 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:5588% → 90%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
88.1%
Luke Falk sacked by Eddie Yarbrough for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 25Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+14
87.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 14 yds to the WshSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-5
87.8%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, false start (Cole Madison) to the WshSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+12
87.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 12 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
88.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to John Thompson for 7 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+35
90.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 35 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8MISSED FG10 plays · 41 yds · 3:5012% → 14%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
88.4%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 9 yds to the Wyom 47Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+17
88.1%
Brian Hill run for 17 yds to the WASHST 36 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+4
87.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 4 yds to the WshSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9TD9 plays · 79 yds · 3:4888% → 91%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
87.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Keith Harrington for 8 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+2
88.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Keith Harrington for 2 yds to the WshSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
88.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Keith Harrington for 4 yds to the WshSt 39Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+10
88.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 10 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
88.7%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gerard Wicks for a loss of 4 yards to the WshSt 45Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+2
88.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 2 yds to the WshSt 47Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+17
87.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gerard Wicks for 17 yds to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 3:4110% → 12%
Q2 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+14
89.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 14 yds to the Wyom 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+8
89.6%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 8 yds to the Wyom 39Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
89.3%
Shaun Wick run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 40 Shaun Wick fumbled, forced by Darrien Molton, recovered by Wyom Shaun WickSimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+9
89.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Brian Hill for 9 yds to the Wyom 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:2189% → 89%
WYODrive 12END OF HALF7 plays · 59 yds · 0:3212% → 12%
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
87.7%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Shaun Wick for 5 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+7
87.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 7 yds to the WshSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
86.5%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Ivan McLennan for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 15
50
+42
88.3%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 42 yds to the WshSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
88.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 5 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14INT3 plays · 23 yds · 0:0089% → 90%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
88.7%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 15 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
89.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Keith Harrington for 8 yds to the WshSt 47Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+29
89.7%
Luke Falk pass intercepted Marcus Epps return for 19 yds to the WASHST 34 WYOMING Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Wyom 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15DOWNS8 plays · 21 yds · 2:4814% → 13%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
86.5%
Shaun Wick run for 9 yds to the WASHST 42 WYOMING Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Wyom 48Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+17
87.2%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 17 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+11
87.6%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 11 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
WYODrive 17PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 12%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 15
OPP 19
0
85.2%
Cameron Coffman pass incomplete to Jacob Hollister, broken up by Shalom LuaniSimilar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 21
OPP 25
-16
87.2%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Kache Palacio for a loss of 16 yards to the WshSt 41Similar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 37
OPP 41
+14
88.4%
Ethan Wood punt for 29 yds , Gabe Marks returns for 14 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
WYODrive 19FUMBLE10 plays · 38 yds · 4:2713% → 12%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
87.2%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 5 yds to the Wyom 20Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+9
87.6%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Shaun Wick for 9 yds to the Wyom 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+6
86.8%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Joseph Parker for 6 yds to the Wyom 36Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+6
86.6%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 6 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
84.9%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Ivan McLennan for a loss of 15 yards to the WASHST 39 WYOMING Penalty, intentional grounding (Cameron Coffman) to the Wyom 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 29
OWN 35
+18
87.8%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 18 yds Tanner Gentry fumbled, forced by Shalom Luani, recovered by WshSt Hercules Mata'afaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20FG10 plays · 48 yds · 4:2192% → 92%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-8
91.9%
Luke Falk pass incomplete WASHINGTON ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Luke Falk) to the WshSt 39Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+14
91.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 14 yds to the Wyom 47Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+23
91.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 8 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (Robert Priester) to the Wyom 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
92.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyrin Priester for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 27Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+17
91.7%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 17 yds to the Wyom 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
91.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gerard Wicks for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
91.9%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 6 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 8:17
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+14
93.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 14 yds to the WshSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
93.7%
Harrington, K. rush for 7 yards to the WY48 (WINGARD, Andrew), PENALTY WSU holding (Dahl, Joe) 10 yards to the WSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 20
OWN 35
-11
93.0%
Luke Falk sacked by Eddie Yarbrough for a loss of 11 yards to the WshSt 24Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 31
OWN 24
-6
92.8%
Luke Falk run for a loss of 6 yards to the WshSt 18 Luke Falk fumbled, recovered by WshSt Luke FalkSimilar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 37
OWN 18
+14
92.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Dom Williams for 14 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 23
OWN 32
+7
92.0%
Zach Charme punt for 41 yds , Tanner Gentry returns for 7 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
WSUDrive 24TD2 plays · 12 yds · 0:4696% → 99%
WYODrive 25END OF GAME15 plays · 40 yds · 1:382% → 1%
Q4 1:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
98.1%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 6 yds to the Wyom 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
98.1%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Ivan McLennan for a loss of 6 yards to the Wyom 26Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+16
98.5%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 16 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
98.4%
Cameron Coffman sacked by Kache Palacio for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 39Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+18
99.3%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 18 yds to the WshSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
99.2%
COFFMAN, C. rush for 40 yards to the WSU3, out-of-bounds (Pippins, Mar.), PENALTY WY holding (CUMMINGS, Ryan) 10 yards to the WY47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+13
99.4%
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Josh Harshman for 13 yds to the WshSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49
Luke Falk pass incomplete WASHINGTON ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Luke Falk) to the WshSt 39
+4
TD · Q2 5:17
Keith Harrington run for 36 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q1 1:03
Cameron Coffman pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 5 yds for a TD, (Tristan Bailey KICK)
-3.1