Washington State

Profile vs. FBS, 2018

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2389th
  Defense+0.1344th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense49.1%91st
  Defense42.7%46th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1940th
  Defense+1.1955th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1781st
  Defense+0.1520th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2774th
  Defense+0.1160th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.4%86th
  Defense47.8%45th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense40.3%91st
  Defense31.4%64th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0465th
  Defense2.9740th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.7%95th
  Defense19.7%53rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense11.3%96th
  Defense16.5%57th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2018

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Washington State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WYO
2. W
   SJSU
3. W
   EWU
4. L
   USC
5. W
   UTAH
6. W
   ORST
7. W
   ORE
8. W
   STAN
9. W
   CAL
10. W
    COLO
11. W
    ARIZ
12. L
    WASH
13. W
    ISU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Washington State.

Players, 2018

1. Gardner MinshewQB543 plays · +0.299 pts/play · 1st of 225 QBs
   3.04WAR2.16 to 3.95
2. James WilliamsRB171 plays · +0.114 pts/play · 109th of 351 RBs
   0.37WAR0.23 to 0.51
3. Dezmon PatmonWR57 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 52nd of 434 WRs
   0.19WAR0.11 to 0.26
4. Easop Winston Jr.WR59 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 81st of 434 WRs
   0.16WAR0.09 to 0.23
5. Renard BellWR23 plays · +0.139 pts/play · 285th of 434 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.09
6. Jamire CalvinWR46 plays · +0.065 pts/play · 299th of 434 WRs
   0.06WAR0.00 to 0.11
7. Kyle SweetWR34 plays · +0.075 pts/play · 330th of 434 WRs
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.08
8. Davontavean MartinWR59 plays · +0.019 pts/play · 384th of 434 WRs
   0.02WAR−0.06 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Washington State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2018

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  55555561st of 130Roster talent: 555, 61st of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  18518547th of 130Recruiting: 185, 47th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  49%49%94th of 129Returning production: 49%, 94th of 129 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +11.3+11.331st of 130SP+ rating: +11.3, 31st of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Washington State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ISUQ4 11:46 4th & 2 at WSU 40, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
2. vs ISUQ4 6:48 4th & 1 at WSU 27, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
3. vs UTAHQ2 4:05 4th & 1 at WSU 43, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. at USCQ4 6:59 4th & 2 at WSU 33, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. at COLOQ2 0:26 4th & 10 at COLO 38, up 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.8 pts
6. at STANQ2 0:00 4th & 3 at STAN 6, down 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
7. at STANQ2 5:35 4th & 7 at STAN 43, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs CALQ3 7:41 4th & 4 at WSU 40, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2018

6th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Washington State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WYO
2. W

   SJSU
3. W

   EWU
4. L

   USC
5. W

   UTAH
6. W

   ORST
7. W

   ORE
8. W

   STAN
9. W

   CAL
10. W

    COLO
11. W

    ARIZ
12. L

    WASH
13. W

    ISU

What moved it, 2018

Every game starts at Washington State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.33
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.04
• Timeouts+0.06
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.12

Game by game

• WYOW 41-19 at WYO60% → 99%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +45, Clock +1
• SJSUW 31-0 vs SJSU97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• EWUW 59-24 vs EWU91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +12
• USCL 36-39 at USC38% → 4%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −32, Timeouts −2
• UTAHW 28-24 vs UTAH45% → 95%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2
• ORSTW 56-37 at ORST89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• OREW 34-20 vs ORE54% → 99%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +2
• STANW 41-38 at STAN40% → 85%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +40, Possession & field position +3
• CALW 19-13 vs CAL66% → 91%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +2
• COLOW 31-7 at COLO63% → 100%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +37: Scoreboard +41, Clock +2
• ARIZW 69-28 vs ARIZ76% → 100%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +27
• WASHL 15-28 vs WASH52% → 2%Before kickoff +2 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −51, Clock −3
• ISUW 28-26 vs ISU58% → 90%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Washington State's side.

Closest call

BOIS 44-47 WSU (2017) - Washington State dropped to a 1.9% win probability before pulling it out.