2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreARIZ score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Keith Harrington run for 2 yds to the Ariz 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:19: Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:03: Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 11 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:43: Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 37 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +8.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:08: Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza PAT MISSED) — WSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:04: Jack Crane kickoff for 64 yds , Cedric Peterson return for a loss of 1 yard Cedric Peterson fumbled, recovered by WshSt Kainoa Wilson for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK) — WSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 6:07ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 19, down 14Close callPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it20.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.5%−0.3average punt
- Q1 5:18WSU 4th & 11 at WSU 34, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.0% before the snapGo for it79.7%−0.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.4%average punt
- Q2 14:09ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 31, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it19.3%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.8%average punt
- Q4 2:09ARIZ 4th & 11 at WSU 37, down 41Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.0%40% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:44WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.5%97% to makeGo for two76.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:38WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.0%97% to makeGo for two78.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:19ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.1%97% to makeGo for two23.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:19WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.8%97% to makeGo for two80.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:03WSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.7%97% to makeGo for two89.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:43ARIZ Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.1%97% to makeGo for two17.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:08WSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call92.0%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0776% → 76%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 6 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
75.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Travell Harris for 29 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
75.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 1 yd to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+15
75.3%
Minshew, Gardner pass incomplete, PENALTY ARIZONA unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the ARIZONA20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHST.Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-1
75.3%
Gardner Minshew sacked by JB Brown and Dereck Boles for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 18Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+9
75.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 9 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
75.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 8 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2INT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0924% → 24%
WSUDrive 3TD6 plays · 53 yds · 1:3776% → 79%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
76.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 7 yds to the WASHST 46 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
76.4%
Max Borghi run for 8 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (12 Yards) to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
76.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 2 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+8
76.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Renard Bell for 8 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1822% → 21%
Q1 6:07
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
78.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4279% → 79%
ARIZDrive 6TD7 plays · 70 yds · 1:5321% → 25%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
78.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 12 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+15
79.0%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Darrien Molton) to the WshSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
74.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shawn Poindexter for 24 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7TD7 plays · 49 yds · 2:4677% → 82%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
77.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 5 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
77.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 6 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
76.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Renard Bell for 6 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
81.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0320% → 20%
Q2 14:09
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
80.1%
Dylan Klumph punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9TD6 plays · 79 yds · 2:0381% → 89%
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+15
81.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Lorenzo Burns) to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
81.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 4 yds to the WshSt 40Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
82.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 6 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
88.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 11 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD5 plays · 73 yds · 1:1212% → 20%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
80.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 37 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2782% → 91%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Keith Harrington for 7 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+26
82.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Easop Winston for 26 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
83.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 23 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
83.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 5 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+9
83.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 9 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
83.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Renard Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 6Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.8%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:494% → 4%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
95.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 10 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 6
OWN 6
-25
96.0%
Khalil Tate sacked by Karson Block for a loss of 25 yards to the Ariz 6 ARIZONA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Khalil Tate) to the Ariz 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14TD5 plays · 54 yds · 1:5397% → 98%
ARIZDrive 15FUMBLE10 plays · 74 yds · 2:272% → 3%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Gary Brightwell for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
97.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 8 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
98.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 9 yds to the WshSt 49Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+1
97.9%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 1 yd to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+6
98.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 6 yds to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+30
98.0%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 30 yds to the WshSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
98.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17END OF HALF1 play · 30 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
98.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 30 yds to the WshSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:561% → 2%
WSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 0:1899% → 99%
ARIZDrive 20PUNT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:451% → 1%
WSUDrive 21MISSED FG11 plays · 72 yds · 5:0799% → 100%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for 4 yds to the WshSt 22Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+36
99.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 36 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for no gain to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
99.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 11 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+2
99.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 2 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+19
99.5%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 19 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
99.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Max Borghi for 6 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 4
OPP 6
-4
99.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to James Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22TD10 plays · 80 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q3 2:48
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+39
99.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 39 yds to the WshSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
99.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 8 yds to the WshSt 14Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
99.6%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 4 yds to the WshSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
99.8%
J.J. Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the WshSt 14 J.J. Taylor fumbled, recovered by Ariz J.J. TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23FUMBLE4 plays · 17 yds · 1:02100% → 100%
WSUDrive 24TD4 plays · 22 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+9
99.8%
Max Borghi run for 6 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (Scottie Young Jr.) to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 11 yds · 1:440% → 0%
WSUDrive 26TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 14 yds to the WshSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 9 yds to the WshSt 48Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+38
99.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 38 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27DOWNS12 plays · 43 yds · 4:510% → 0%
Q4 5:10
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
Rodriguez, Rhett rush for no gain to the ARIZONA35, PENALTY WASHST face mask (Oguayo, Nnamdi) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Tony Ellison for 5 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-6
99.9%
Rhett Rodriguez sacked by Fa'avae Fa'avae for a loss of 6 yards to the WshSt 37Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 11
OPP 37
+5
100.0%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Shun Brown for 5 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER5 plays · 21 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 1:32
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
100.0%
Trey Tinsley pass complete to Davontavean Martin for 9 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:43
Khalil Tate pass complete to Tony Ellison for 37 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q2 7:08
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza PAT MISSED)
+7.4
TD · Q2 12:03
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 11 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)
+6.4