2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:07 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:52: Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 14 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:11: Jayden de Laura run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:52: Anthony Brown run for 17 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +7.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:31: Dean Janikowski 34 yd FG GOOD — WSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:52: Byron Cardwell run for 27 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK) — ORE win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 4WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 11:41ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 29, tiedClose callPunted · 80.9% before the snapGo for it81.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:36WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it19.4%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.5%average punt
- Q1 0:00WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snapGo for it15.1%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q2 11:53ORE 4th & 8 at WSU 47, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.6%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.8%average punt
- Q2 9:22WSU 4th & 3 at WSU 29, down 14Close callPunted · 14.7% before the snapGo for it15.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.7%−0.3average punt
- Q2 4:49ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snapGo for it79.1%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.9%average punt
- Q3 9:57WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 49, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 20.9% before the snapGo for it21.5%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.1%−1.3average punt
- Q3 2:54ORE 4th & 4 at WSU 4, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snapGo for it83.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call82.4%−0.693% to makePunt75.2%−7.8average punt
- Q3 2:04WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it13.2%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.8%average punt
- Q4 8:31WSU 4th & 16 at ORE 17, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snapGo for it8.2%−1.614% to convertField goalTheir call9.8%80% to makePunt5.2%−4.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5WSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 3:51ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.9%97% to makeGo for two80.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:04ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.0%97% to makeGo for two84.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:52WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.0%97% to makeGo for two19.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:11WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.5%97% to makeGo for two26.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:52ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.1%97% to makeGo for two79.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:52ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%−0.497% to makeGo for two95.3%45% to convert
- Q4 2:07ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
- Q4 0:09WSU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1FUMBLE4 plays · 73 yds · 1:0417% → 17%
OREDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0083% → 82%
Q1 12:16
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
82.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 6 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0018% → 18%
OREDrive 4TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3982% → 83%
Q1 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
81.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 1 yd to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
81.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 3 yds to the WshSt 45Similar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
81.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 20 yds to the WshSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+9
80.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 9 yds to the WshSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
82.3%
Jayden de Laura pass intercepted Verone McKinley III return for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 23 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Travell Harris) to the WshSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD4 plays · 40 yds · 1:3183% → 86%
Q1 2:04
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
85.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 11 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 1:4915% → 15%
Q1 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
85.3%
Nick Haberer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the Oregn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:0286% → 86%
Q2 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
86.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 6 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+1
86.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Devon Williams for 1 yd to the WshSt 47Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
86.2%
Tom Snee punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:2515% → 14%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
85.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 8 yds to the WshSt 30Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+4
85.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 4 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
86.0%
Nick Haberer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10FUMBLE2 plays · 16 yds · 0:0987% → 87%
WSUDrive 11TD6 plays · 46 yds · 2:0515% → 21%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
85.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 9 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
84.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 15 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
84.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 6 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+14
78.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 14 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4982% → 81%
Q2 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-5
82.1%
Anthony Brown sacked by Brennan Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+2
81.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 2 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
80.7%
Tom Snee punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13TD13 plays · 73 yds · 4:3019% → 35%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
81.1%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Jayson Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the WshSt 19Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 18
OWN 19
+23
81.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Max Borghi for 23 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+17
79.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 17 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
77.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 4 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+22
77.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 22 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD6 plays · 43 yds · 1:5375% → 83%
WSUDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 29 yds · 2:4219% → 20%
Q3 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
80.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 10 yds to the WshSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
80.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Joey Hobert for 11 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
79.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Donovan Ollie for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 40Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
79.7%
Nick Haberer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the Oregn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17FG15 plays · 91 yds · 6:5882% → 87%
WSUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4514% → 13%
Q3 2:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
87.2%
Nick Haberer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mycah Pittman at the Oregn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19FUMBLE12 plays · 59 yds · 6:3087% → 90%
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
88.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
89.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 6 yds to the WshSt 22Similar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 0
OPP 10
+9
90.3%
Anthony Brown run for 9 yds to the WshSt 1, Anthony Brown fumbled, forced by George Hicks III, recovered by WshSt Jaylen Watson at the WshSt 1, return for 49 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20FG6 plays · 33 yds · 1:5213% → 14%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
50
+39
87.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 39 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
85.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Calvin Jackson Jr. for 3 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-9
86.7%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD6 plays · 66 yds · 2:2390% → 98%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
90.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+18
89.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kris Hutson for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+18
92.9%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the WshSt 42 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Justus Rogers) to the WshSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 22INT8 plays · 27 yds · 1:464% → 3%
OREDrive 23TD5 plays · 32 yds · 1:3898% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 24TD8 plays · 61 yds · 1:451% → 3%
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
99.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 9 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
99.4%
de Laura, Jayden pass incomplete to Stribling, De'Zhaun (TEAM), PENALTY OREGON pass interference (Ford-Dement, Kaleb) 11 yards to the OREGON2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHST, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q4 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 2 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25END OF GAME2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:11
Jayden de Laura run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q3 12:52
Anthony Brown run for 17 yds for a TD, (Camden Lewis KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 6:52
Jayden de Laura pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 14 yds for a TD, (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-5.8