2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadPRST aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scorePRST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:32 · Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Trey Leckner for 33 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:06: John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 30 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:49: John Mateer pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 39 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:07: John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 58 yds for a TD (B. Riviere III Run For Two-point Conversion) — WSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:39: Wayshawn Parker run for 54 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:28: John Mateer pass complete to Wayshawn Parker for 52 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5PRST made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 14:03WSU 4th & 13 at WSU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.6%average punt
- Q1 7:54PRST 4th & 4 at PRST 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q1 5:27WSU 4th & 2 at PRST 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt92.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:15PRST 4th & 15 at PRST 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q2 14:55PRST 4th & 10 at WSU 26, down 15Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.229% to convertField goalTheir call6.6%64% to makePunt5.6%−1.0average punt
- Q2 11:50PRST 4th & 8 at PRST 27, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q2 2:36PRST 4th & 4 at WSU 4, down 26Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%40% to convertField goal1.4%−0.193% to makePunt0.2%−1.2average punt
- Q2 1:39PRST 4th & 13 at PRST 22, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q3 12:45PRST 4th & 10 at PRST 36, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 10:34PRST 4th & 10 at PRST 31, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 6:11WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 27, up 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 3:00PRST 4th & 14 at WSU 41, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.119% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:32WSU 4th & 2 at PRST 33, up 40Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%57% to convertField goal99.8%−0.149% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 11:21PRST 4th & 2 at PRST 33, down 47Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:35PRST 4th & 4 at WSU 4, down 47Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%40% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.193% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:12WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 27, up 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 0:30PRST 4th & 1 at PRST 42, down 40Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.170% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10PRST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 12:17PRST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.1%97% to makeGo for two6.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:06WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:49WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:07WSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick94.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call94.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:39WSU Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:28WSU Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.1%97% to makeGo for two95.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:36WSU Touchdown, up 32 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick99.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:30WSU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:08PRST Touchdown, down 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.9%97% to makeGo for two0.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:17WSU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:47WSU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:53PRST Touchdown, down 40 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick0.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:32WSU Touchdown, up 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:35PRST Touchdown, down 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4796% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 2TD5 plays · 65 yds · 1:395% → 5%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
95.4%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Quincy Craig for 6 yds to the PRST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0595% → 95%
PRSTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:065% → 6%
Q1 7:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
94.1%
Tony Johnson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5994% → 94%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
94.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+8
93.5%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 8 yds to the PRST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
94.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 39 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:266% → 6%
Q1 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
94.0%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Eric Denham for a loss of 1 yard to the PRST 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7TD1 play · 58 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
95.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 58 yds for a TD (B. Riviere III Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 8FG9 plays · 49 yds · 3:046% → 6%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
94.4%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Eric Denham for a loss of 4 yards to the PRST 21Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+10
94.3%
Washington State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Stephen Hall) to the PRST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+29
94.0%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Tanner Beaman for 29 yds to the WSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
93.6%
Dante Chachere run for a loss of 5 yards to the WSU 31 Dante Chachere fumbled, recovered by PRST Dante Chachere D. Chachere return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1294% → 96%
Q2 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
94.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Tony Freeman for 19 yds to the WSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:425% → 4%
WSUDrive 11TD4 plays · 68 yds · 1:1496% → 97%
PRSTDrive 12INT TD15 plays · 71 yds · 7:462% → 2%
Q2 9:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
97.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Jaylen Lynch for 14 yds to the PRST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+28
97.8%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Branden Alvarez for 28 yds to the WSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
97.6%
Eric Denham run for 8 yds to the WSU 12 Eric Denham fumbled, recovered by PRST Jaylen Lynch J. Lynch return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-100
98.4%
Dante Chachere pass intercepted Stephen Hall return for 100 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 13PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:571% → 1%
Q2 1:56
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+7
99.2%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Quincy Craig for 7 yds to the PRST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14TD2 plays · 47 yds · 0:1299% → 99%
PRSTDrive 15TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q2 1:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
99.4%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Quincy Craig for 6 yds to the PRST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+28
99.4%
Quincy Craig pass complete to Chance Miller for 28 yds to the WSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+8
99.3%
William Haskell pass complete to Tanner Beaman for 8 yds to the WSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
99.1%
Branden Alvarez 10 Yd pass from William Haskell (Mathias Uribe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
99.2%
(00:02) [SG] Kneel down by WSU at WSU15 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:151% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.2%
William Haskell pass complete to Tanner Beaman for 5 yds to the PRST 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.2%
William Haskell pass complete to Quincy Craig for 5 yds to the PRST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Tony Johnson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18TD2 plays · 70 yds · 0:2399% → 100%
PRSTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q3 11:25
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+3
99.6%
William Haskell pass complete to Jalynnee McGee for 3 yds to the PRST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20TD2 plays · 64 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
PRSTDrive 21TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.7%
Eric Denham 40 Yd pass from Dante Chachere (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q3 7:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 4 yds to the WSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 3:070% → 0%
Q3 5:03
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+33
99.8%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Travis West for 33 yds to the WSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.8%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Elias Spence for 2 yds to the WSU 35Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-8
99.8%
Dante Chachere sacked by Khalil Laufau for a loss of 8 yards to the WSU 43Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Tony Johnson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 24TD11 plays · 92 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
99.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Chris Barnes for a loss of 1 yard to the WSU 7Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+13
99.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 13 yds to the WSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
99.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Billy Riviere III for 8 yds to the WSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+27
99.9%
Wayshawn Parker run for 37 yds Washington State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chris Barnes) to the PRST 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Branden Ganashamoorthy for 4 yds to the PRST 33Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+33
99.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Trey Leckner for 33 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 25TD15 plays · 75 yds · 8:490% → 0%
Q4 12:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Jaylen Lynch for 1 yd to the PRST 27Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
99.9%
Dante Chachere pass complete to Christian Grubb for 6 yds to the PRST 33Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
99.9%
Washington State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jaylon Edmond) to the WSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
99.9%
(07:01) QB Keeper CHACHERE, Dante rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the WSU4 (WILLIAMS, Jerrae), clock 06:59. PENALTY Before the snap, PSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the WSU5 to the WSU10. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 2:23100% → 100%
Q4 2:12
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Dean Janikowski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Branden Alvarez at the PRST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 27DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:330% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 28END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
100.0%
(00:32) [NHSG] Kneel down by WSU at PSU42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:25.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:39
Wayshawn Parker run for 54 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q1 3:07
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 58 yds for a TD (B. Riviere III Run For Two-point Conversion)
+1
TD · Q1 4:49
John Mateer pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 39 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
+0.9