2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Lumen Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:58 · Dean Janikowski 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:16: Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +1.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:16: John Mateer run for 23 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:21: John Mateer run for 25 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +10.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:47: Grady Gross 24 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +3.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q3 5:54: John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 16 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +19.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 11:26WSU 4th & 1 at WASH 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.5%70% to convertField goal35.3%−0.290% to makePunt34.9%−0.7average punt
- Q1 9:49WASH 4th & 11 at WASH 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snapGo for it64.0%−0.224% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.2%average punt
- Q1 8:58WSU 4th & 7 at WASH 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.8%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call35.8%64% to makePunt35.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 14:56WASH 4th & 12 at WSU 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snapGo for it60.5%−0.723% to convertField goalTheir call61.2%62% to makePunt58.7%−2.5average punt
- Q2 12:29WSU 4th & 11 at WASH 38, tiedClose callPunted · 37.3% before the snapGo for it37.3%−<0.127% to convertField goal37.3%38% to makePuntTheir call37.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 9:10WASH 4th & 5 at WSU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snapGo for it63.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalTheir call63.8%68% to makePunt60.9%−2.9average punt
- Q2 4:36WSU 4th & 8 at WASH 8, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snapGo for it34.0%−0.726% to convertField goalTheir call34.7%90% to makePunt28.6%−6.1average punt
- Q2 2:02WASH 4th & 2 at WASH 45, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 65.5% before the snapGo for it65.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.7%−1.1average punt
- Q3 9:47WASH 4th & 6 at WSU 7, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snapGo for it52.8%−0.432% to convertField goalTheir call53.2%91% to makePunt42.5%−10.6average punt
- Q3 0:00WASH 4th & 9 at WSU 25, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snapGo for it30.9%−1.031% to convertField goalTheir call31.9%66% to makePunt20.5%−11.3average punt
- Q4 12:26WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 36, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it61.8%−2.037% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.8%average punt
- Q4 10:08WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 25, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snapGo for it32.7%−1.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.1%average punt
- Q4 6:00WASH 4th & 11 at WSU 46, down 5Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it28.7%27% to convertField goal27.5%−1.123% to makePuntTheir call28.4%−0.3average punt
- Q4 3:40WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 33, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snapGo for it74.6%−4.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.3%average punt
- Q4 1:07WASH 4th & 1 at WSU 1, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.2%59% to convertField goal17.3%−30.094% to makePunt9.7%−37.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:16WASH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.7%97% to makeGo for two65.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:16WSU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.6%97% to makeGo for two37.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:21WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.3%97% to makeGo for two46.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:54WSU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.8%97% to makeGo for two61.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1DOWNS12 plays · 65 yds · 3:3435% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
64.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 19 yds to the WSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
64.7%
Washington State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-2 Yards) to the WSU 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+21
64.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 21 yds to the WASH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+15
64.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 15 yds to the WASH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+7
64.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 7 yds to the WASH 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3765% → 64%
WSUDrive 3FG4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5136% → 36%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
63.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 3 yds to the WASH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:4264% → 66%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
63.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 17 yds to the WASH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
64.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keith Reynolds for 7 yds to the WASH 49Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+20
64.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 20 yds to the WSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
66.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5TD7 plays · 72 yds · 2:5135% → 39%
Q1 7:07
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+7
65.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the WSU 37Similar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
64.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 15 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
64.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Tony Freeman for 8 yds to the WASH 38Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+15
64.4%
MATEER, John pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Kyle thrown to the UW0. PENALTY UW Pass Interference on JACKSON, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the UW23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6FG10 plays · 48 yds · 4:2062% → 63%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
62.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 14 yds to the WASH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
62.7%
Demond Williams Jr. pass complete to Denzel Boston for no gain to the WASH 39Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+18
62.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 18 yds to the WSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
63.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 6 yds to the WSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 37 yds · 2:2037% → 38%
Q2 14:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
62.6%
MATEER, John pass to the left incomplete intended for MATHERS, Cooper thrown to the WSU34. PENALTY UW Holding on BROUSSARD, Cameron declined UW Face mask on DIXON, Thaddeus enforced 15 yards from the WSU26 to the WSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8FG8 plays · 56 yds · 3:1963% → 66%
WSUDrive 9MISSED FG12 plays · 44 yds · 4:2538% → 37%
Q2 9:01
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+16
63.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Wayshawn Parker for 16 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+15
60.9%
MATEER, John sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the UW44 (BANDES, Jacob;WARD, Isaiah). PENALTY UW Face mask on WARD, Isaiah enforced 15 yards from the UW34 to the UW19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
60.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds to the WASH 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 2:3466% → 66%
WSUDrive 11TD9 plays · 91 yds · 1:3235% → 52%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+24
65.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 24 yds to the WSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+38
63.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Tony Freeman for 38 yds to the WASH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+10
59.3%
MATEER, John pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Kyle thrown to the UW0. PENALTY UW Holding on DIXON, Thaddeus enforced 10 yards from the UW25 to the UW15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-10
59.3%
John Mateer sacked by Alphonzo Tuputala for a loss of 10 yards to the WASH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 28 yds · 0:2152% → 52%
WASHDrive 13FG13 plays · 67 yds · 5:0654% → 59%
Q3 14:53
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+12
53.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Keleki Latu for 12 yds to the WASH 35Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-5
55.3%
Washington Penalty, False Start (D'Angalo Titialii) to the WASH 30Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+6
53.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 6 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+21
59.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Decker DeGraaf for 21 yds to the WSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+8
55.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 8 yds to the WSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14TD9 plays · 77 yds · 3:4545% → 69%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
55.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 11 yds to the WSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
55.1%
Washington State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the WSU 29Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 13
OWN 31
-5
57.1%
Washington State Penalty, False Start (Rodrick Tialavea) to the WSU 26Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 18
OWN 26
+10
57.1%
MATEER, John sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the WSU19 (TUPUTALA, Alphonzo). PENALTY UW Holding on SHAW, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the WSU26 to the WSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
50.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 11 yds to the WASH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
31.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 16 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15FG12 plays · 50 yds · 5:5437% → 42%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
36.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 15 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
40.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 5 yds to the WSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
41.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 2 yds to the WSU 35Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
42.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the WSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2963% → 63%
WASHDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1840% → 35%
Q4 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-8
40.2%
Will Rogers sacked by Raam Stevenson for a loss of 8 yards to the WASH 17Similar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 20
OWN 12
+13
37.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Denzel Boston for 13 yds to the WASH 25Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
35.2%
Jack McCallister punt for 45 yds , Tony Freeman returns for no gain to the WSU 25 Washington State Penalty, Illegal Block (Frank Cusano) to the WSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18INT4 plays · 17 yds · 1:5469% → 73%
Q4 8:14
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-21
26.6%
John Mateer pass intercepted Thaddeus Dixon return for 21 yds to the WASH 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1440% → 31%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-12
44.4%
Washington Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Will Rogers) to the WASH 43Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 22
OWN 43
+8
38.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Giles Jackson for 8 yds to the WSU 49Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+8
38.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rashid Williams for 8 yds to the WSU 41Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
31.2%
Jack McCallister punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2075% → 78%
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+21
25.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 21 yds to the WSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-5
21.5%
Washington State Penalty, False Start (Devin Kylany) to the WSU 28Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
22.0%
Dean Janikowski punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21DOWNS9 plays · 66 yds · 2:3329% → 25%
WSUDrive 22END OF GAME8 plays · 21 yds · 1:0293% → 96%
Q4 0:31
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+5
7.5%
QB Keeper MATEER, John rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the WSU5 (FABICULANAN, Kamren). PENALTY UW Offsides on PARKER, Jayvon enforced 5 yards from the WSU7 to the WSU12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+15
3.7%
Washington Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the WSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:54
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 16 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-19.3
TD · Q2 0:21
John Mateer run for 25 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
-10.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-3.7