2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreTTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:06 · Cameran Brown run for 20 yds to the WSU 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:09: Wayshawn Parker run for 43 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +17.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:53: Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 2 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +16.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:33: Coy Eakin pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 20 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +9.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:25: John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 21 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski PAT MISSED) — WSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:21: Cameron Dickey 12 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TTU win probability +3.8 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 13:29TTU 4th & 4 at TTU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snapGo for it50.2%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.2%average punt
- Q1 9:06TTU 4th & 16 at TTU 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snapGo for it46.7%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.0%average punt
- Q1 7:11WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 34, up 7Close callPunted · 53.4% before the snapGo for it53.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:31TTU 4th & 17 at WSU 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snapGo for it43.2%−0.813% to convertField goalTheir call44.0%77% to makePunt41.8%−2.2average punt
- Q1 0:48WSU 4th & 4 at WSU 46, up 4Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snapGo for it53.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:00TTU 4th & 3 at TTU 49, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call46.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt46.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 12:09WSU 4th & 12 at WSU 49, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snapGo for it53.2%−0.623% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.8%average punt
- Q2 8:20TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 43, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt44.3%−1.3average punt
- Q2 1:33WSU 4th & 6 at TTU 29, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snapGo for it71.9%−0.340% to convertField goalTheir call72.2%58% to makePunt68.7%−3.4average punt
- Q2 0:00TTU 4th & 9 at TTU 31, down 17Numbers favored punt by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 19.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.5%−2.531% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt17.9%average punt
- Q3 9:34WSU 4th & 2 at TTU 8, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.0%54% to convertField goal86.5%−1.590% to makePunt78.3%−9.7average punt
- Q3 5:32TTU 4th & 11 at WSU 49, down 17Numbers favored punt by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 10.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.2%−1.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt11.6%average punt
- Q3 3:13WSU 4th & 1 at TTU 1, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.1%59% to convertField goal88.9%−2.294% to makePunt83.1%−8.0average punt
- Q4 11:18WSU 4th & 7 at WSU 23, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%average punt
- Q4 7:58TTU 4th & 3 at WSU 24, down 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.8%52% to convertField goal3.7%−0.168% to makePunt1.5%−2.3average punt
- Q4 5:57WSU 4th & 8 at TTU 8, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call97.7%90% to makePunt95.9%−1.8average punt
- Q4 4:25TTU 4th & 19 at TTU 16, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 1:05WSU 4th & 4 at TTU 39, up 21Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%48% to convertField goal99.4%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call99.4%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TTU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 10:03WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.8%97% to makeGo for two51.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:09WSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.0%97% to makeGo for two64.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:53WSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.0%97% to makeGo for two75.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 5:33TTU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.8%97% to makeGo for two29.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:25WSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call81.8%97% to makeGo for two81.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 3:13WSU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:21TTU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick3.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0744% → 44%
TTUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0756% → 56%
Q1 14:12
3RD & 3
OWN 15
-1
43.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Trey Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the TTU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3TD7 plays · 40 yds · 3:2044% → 48%
TTUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:5253% → 52%
Q1 9:06
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+4
47.9%
Jack Burgess punt for 59 yds , Tony Freeman returns for 4 yds to the WSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5048% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6FG13 plays · 51 yds · 3:3752% → 52%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
48.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 9 yds to the TTU 39Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+11
48.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+18
48.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 18 yds to the WSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
48.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Micah Hudson for 4 yds to the WSU 27Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+15
48.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 15 yds to the WSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
48.4%
(04:50) MORTON, Behren pass to the right complete for 1 yard to KELLY, Josh caught at the WSU13 and advanced to the WSU11 (THORNTON, Kyle), clock 04:54. PENALTY TTU Personal Foul on RODRIQUES, Maurice enforced 15 yards from the WSU12 to the WSU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 25
OPP 27
-4
49.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for a loss of 4 yards to the WSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3849% → 50%
TTUDrive 8DOWNS10 plays · 35 yds · 2:3551% → 51%
WSUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4952% → 50%
Q2 12:09
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
50.3%
Dean Janikowski punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Kelly at the TTU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10DOWNS8 plays · 35 yds · 3:4349% → 49%
Q2 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+6
51.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 6 yds to the TTU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD1 play · 43 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12FUMBLE1 play · -7 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
60.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for a loss of 7 yards Josh Kelly fumbled, recovered by WSU Taariq Al-Uqdah T. Al-Uqdah return for 16 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13TD1 play · 2 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.1%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 2 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1130% → 41%
WSUDrive 15MISSED FG11 plays · 46 yds · 3:5169% → 73%
Q2 4:18
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
67.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 10 yds to the WSU 34Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+15
68.2%
Texas Tech Penalty, Targeting on LEWIS, Chapman enforced (Chapman Lewis) to the TTU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+6
73.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 6 yds to the TTU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
74.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Wayshawn Parker for 2 yds to the TTU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16INT5 plays · 11 yds · 0:3032% → 33%
WSUDrive 17TD3 plays · 38 yds · 0:2276% → 82%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
81.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 21 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18END OF HALF5 plays · 21 yds · 0:1223% → 21%
WSUDrive 19DOWNS12 plays · 67 yds · 5:2180% → 88%
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
80.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds to the WSU 49Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-10
80.3%
(12:37) PARKER, Wayshawn rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the TTU35 (ROBERTS, Ben), clock 12:40. PENALTY WSU Holding on KYLANY, Devin enforced 10 yards from the TTU38 to the TTU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20DOWNS10 plays · 43 yds · 4:0216% → 12%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
84.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 6 yds to the TTU 14Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+37
84.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 37 yds to the WSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
82.3%
(07:55) VALDEZ, Cam'Ron rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the WSU40 (LAMB, Bryce), clock 07:50. PENALTY Before the snap, TTU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the WSU48 to the TTU47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 15
OWN 47
-10
85.4%
(07:29) VALDEZ, Cam'Ron rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the WSU46 (THORNTON, Kyle), clock 07:27. PENALTY TTU Holding on ROGERS, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the TTU47 to the TTU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 25
OWN 37
+5
86.3%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 5 yds to the TTU 42Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+7
86.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Drae McCray for 7 yds to the TTU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21TD7 plays · 51 yds · 2:2393% → 98%
TTUDrive 22INT10 plays · 40 yds · 3:504% → 3%
Q3 2:21
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+5
96.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 5 yds to the TTU 46Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+7
96.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 7 yds to the WSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
96.9%
(01:23) MORTON, Behren sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the TTU43 (BROWN, Keith), clock 01:22. PENALTY Before the snap, WSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the WSU47 to the WSU42. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+15
97.3%
Washington State Penalty, Personal Foul (Parker McKenna) to the WSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
97.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jordan Brown for 19 yds to the WSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jalin Conyers for no gain to the WSU 7Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
97.4%
(14:07) MORTON, Behren pass to the right complete for 7 yards to KELLY, Josh caught at the WSU0 and advanced to the WSU0, TOUCHDOWN TTU, score nullified by penalty, clock 14:12 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TTU Holding on PONTON, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the WSU7 to the WSU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
97.5%
Behren Morton pass intercepted Kapena Gushiken return for no gain to the WSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:40100% → 99%
TTUDrive 24TD7 plays · 61 yds · 1:462% → 6%
Q4 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+1
98.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 1 yd to the TTU 40Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+15
98.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jordan Brown for 15 yds to the WSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
98.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 15 yds to the WSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+15
98.2%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 15 yds to the WSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
94.4%
Cameron Dickey 12 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 25DOWNS6 plays · 31 yds · 1:225% → 5%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
95.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Cameron Dickey for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 5
50
+19
95.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 19 yds to the WSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
95.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jordan Brown for 7 yds to the WSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 26FG8 plays · 68 yds · 2:0699% → 100%
Q4 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+68
99.8%
John Mateer run for 68 yds to the TTU 1 for a 1ST down Texas Tech Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Isaac Smith) to the TTU 0 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
99.8%
John Mateer sacked by Isaac Smith for a loss of 15 yards to the TTU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 27PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:270% → 0%
WSUDrive 28PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
TTUDrive 29END OF GAME5 plays · 59 yds · 0:530% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:09
Wayshawn Parker run for 43 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q2 7:53
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 2 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q2 5:33
Coy Eakin pass complete to Johncarlos Miller II for 20 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
-9.7