2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadHAW aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreHAW score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:26 · Dean Janikowski punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Tylan Hines at the HAW 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:26: John Mateer pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 9 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:58: John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:59: Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 17 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK) — HAW win probability +6.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: HAW has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:14: John Mateer run for 8 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski Kick) — WSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:53: John Mateer run for 14 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HAW made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 9:02WSU 4th & 2 at HAW 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.1%57% to convertField goal87.0%−0.140% to makePunt87.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:54HAW 4th & 6 at WSU 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.1%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call15.1%90% to makePunt14.2%−1.0average punt
- Q2 12:14HAW 4th & 6 at WSU 11, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snapGo for it16.2%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call16.3%87% to makePunt14.5%−1.8average punt
- Q2 11:07WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 22, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.3%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.8%average punt
- Q2 1:58HAW 4th & 9 at HAW 26, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q2 1:26WSU 4th & 9 at WSU 22, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.1%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.9%average punt
- Q2 0:32HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 31, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.557% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.4%average punt
- Q4 12:08HAW 4th & 2 at HAW 46, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:57HAW 4th & 9 at WSU 44, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6HAW made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 1:04WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.2%97% to makeGo for two85.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:26WSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:58WSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:59HAW Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.6%97% to makeGo for two10.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:14WSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:53WSU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:15WSU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1DOWNS13 plays · 44 yds · 5:5385% → 84%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
85.2%
Washington State Penalty, Illegal Block (Kyle Williams) to the WSU 14Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+16
84.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 16 yds to the WSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
84.5%
John Mateer pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 11 yds to the WSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 1
50
+5
84.3%
(11:16) PARKER, Wayshawn rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the HAW48 (TAYLOR, Logan), clock 11:14. PENALTY Before the snap, HAW Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the WSU50 to the HAW45 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
84.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 6 yds to the HAW 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 2FG10 plays · 56 yds · 5:0317% → 19%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
83.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 12 yds to the HAW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
82.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 8 yds to the WSU 44Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+8
82.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 8 yds to the WSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
82.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Jonah Panoke for 7 yds to the WSU 29Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+17
81.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 17 yds to the WSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 4
OPP 6
-2
81.3%
Brayden Schager sacked by Ansel Din-Mbuh for a loss of 2 yards to the WSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5081% → 83%
Q1 3:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
80.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the WSU 28Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
80.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 16 yds to the WSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
81.0%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 14 yds to the HAW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
81.1%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 10 yds to the HAW 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
83.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 32 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 4MISSED FG8 plays · 64 yds · 3:5018% → 19%
WSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0281% → 80%
HAWDrive 6FUMBLE3 plays · 12 yds · 1:2519% → 19%
Q2 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-3
80.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for a loss of 3 yards to the HAW 32Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+12
81.3%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Cenacle for 12 yds Nick Cenacle fumbled, recovered by WSU Kapena Gushiken K. Gushiken return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7TD3 plays · 44 yds · 1:0182% → 87%
HAWDrive 8INT6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5514% → 14%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.8%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tama Uiliata for 10 yds to the HAW 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
85.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 9 yds to the HAW 44Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
84.9%
(07:07) BARFIELD, Cam rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the HAW47 (DIN-MBUH, Ansel), clock 07:06. PENALTY Before the snap, WSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the HAW44 to the HAW49 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-36
85.6%
Brayden Schager pass intercepted Taariq Al-Uqdah return for 26 yds to the WSU 25 Washington State Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the HAW 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 9TD5 plays · 46 yds · 2:2287% → 92%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
87.2%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 23 yds to the HAW 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+7
87.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 7 yds to the HAW 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
91.6%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 9 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 1 yds · 2:0010% → 9%
Q2 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
(03:52) SCHAGER, Brayden pass to the right incomplete intended for MOKIAO-ATIMALALA, Tamatoa thrown to the HAW40; QB hurried by DIN-MBUH, Ansel, clock 03:45. PENALTY HAW Holding on PEIHOPA, Kuao WSU Holding on O'CONNOR, Ethan , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
90.6%
Brayden Schager sacked by Ansel Din-Mbuh and Andrew Edson for a loss of 7 yards to the HAW 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:2091% → 91%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
91.3%
John Mateer pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the WSU 26Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-4
91.0%
John Mateer sacked by Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina for a loss of 4 yards to the WSU 22Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
91.4%
Dean Janikowski punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Tylan Hines at the HAW 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:469% → 9%
WSUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -5 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
92.0%
John Mateer sacked by Jackie Johnson III for a loss of 5 yards to the WSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 14TD7 plays · 75 yds · 4:018% → 16%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
91.2%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
91.0%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Cam Barfield for 6 yds to the WSU 30Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+13
90.5%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 13 yds to the WSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
83.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 17 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15TD15 plays · 60 yds · 6:4587% → 96%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
87.4%
(10:59) MATEER, John pass to the left complete for 8 yards to WILLIAMS, Kyle caught at the WSU25 and advanced to the WSU33 (PALMER, Elijah), out of bounds, clock 10:53. PENALTY WSU Holding on HUTSON, Kris enforced 10 yards from the WSU25 to the WSU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
87.4%
John Mateer pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 7 yds to the WSU 34Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
88.2%
(07:38) SCHLENBAKER, Djouvensky rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the WSU49 (KING, Devyn), clock 07:36. PENALTY HAW Offsides on WASHINGTON, Dion enforced 5 yards from the WSU46 to the HAW49 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
88.9%
John Mateer pass complete to Josh Meredith for 8 yds to the HAW 41Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+27
88.8%
John Mateer pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 27 yds to the HAW 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
89.7%
John Mateer pass complete to Kris Hutson for 3 yds Washington State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tre Shackelford) to the HAW 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HAWDrive 16FUMBLE5 plays · 7 yds · 2:285% → 5%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
94.7%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Spencer Curtis for 9 yds to the HAW 41Similar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
94.9%
Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 11 yds to the WSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-17
95.0%
Brayden Schager sacked for a loss of 17 yards to the HAW 39 Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by WSU Bryson Lamb , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17TD5 plays · 39 yds · 1:3597% → 99%
HAWDrive 18DOWNS6 plays · 22 yds · 2:451% → 1%
WSUDrive 19TD4 plays · 47 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
HAWDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 31 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q4 7:57
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Lucas Borrow punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tony Freeman at the WSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 21END OF GAME14 plays · 64 yds · 7:14100% → 100%
Q4 7:21
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-7
99.9%
Washington State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-7 Yards) to the WSU 8Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+19
99.9%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Branden Ganashamoorthy for 19 yds to the WSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+7
99.9%
Jaxon Potter pass complete to Branden Ganashamoorthy for 7 yds to the WSU 42Similar
Q4 3:28
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+15
99.9%
POTTER, Jaxon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GANASHAMOORTHY, Branden thrown to the HAW35, clock 03:28. PENALTY HAW Offsides declined HAW Pass Interference on WILSON-JONES, Jaheim enforced 15 yards to the HAW43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+13
99.9%
Djouvensky Schlenbaker run for 13 yds to the HAW 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
99.9%
(01:13) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at HAW24 (team loss of 2), clock 01:07.Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-2
100.0%
(00:34) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at HAW26 (team loss of 2), clock 00:29.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:59
Brayden Schager pass complete to Tylan Hines for 17 yds for a TD (Kansei Matsuzawa KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q3 4:14
John Mateer run for 8 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski Kick)
+6.4
TD · Q2 8:26
John Mateer pass complete to Cooper Mathers for 9 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
+5