2024 · DirecTV Holiday Bowl · Dec 27, 2024 · Snapdragon Stadium
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:49 · Zevi Eckhaus run for 1 yd to the SYR 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:17: Josh Meredith 12 Yd Punt Return (Dean Janikowski Kick) — WSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:34: LeQuint Allen run for 2 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK) — SYR win probability +4.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:13: Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 5 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK) — SYR win probability +5.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:06: Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 42 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK) — WSU win probability +13.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:19: Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 45 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK) — SYR win probability +9.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SYR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:44SYR 4th & 15 at SYR 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snapGo for it86.9%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.0%average punt
- Q1 3:54WSU 4th & 8 at WSU 43, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snapGo for it18.4%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q1 0:17SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snapGo for it79.7%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.0%average punt
- Q2 3:08WSU 4th & 1 at SYR 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.6%71% to convertField goal19.0%−1.677% to makePunt14.9%−5.8average punt
- Q3 10:26WSU 4th & 12 at SYR 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.9% before the snapGo for it12.1%−0.722% to convertField goalTheir call12.8%68% to makePunt10.0%−2.8average punt
- Q3 7:08SYR 4th & 17 at WSU 21, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snapGo for it87.9%−1.713% to convertField goalTheir call89.6%74% to makePunt85.1%−4.5average punt
- Q3 3:43WSU 4th & 1 at SYR 49, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.9%−1.2average punt
- Q4 14:49WSU 4th & 1 at SYR 44, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.7%70% to convertField goal8.9%−2.827% to makePunt9.7%−1.9average punt
- Q4 9:19SYR 4th & 18 at WSU 18, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snapGo for it92.9%−1.711% to convertField goalTheir call94.5%79% to makePunt90.2%−4.3average punt
- Q4 5:02WSU 4th & 16 at SYR 20, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.814% to convertField goalTheir call3.7%75% to makePunt2.2%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SYR made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 9:47WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.8%97% to makeGo for two15.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:03SYR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick83.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:32SYR Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick83.4%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call83.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:22WSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.9%97% to makeGo for two18.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:17WSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.3%97% to makeGo for two23.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:53SYR Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.6%97% to makeGo for two77.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:34SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.3%97% to makeGo for two81.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:13SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.8%97% to makeGo for two85.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:06WSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.9%97% to makeGo for two17.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:19SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.5%97% to makeGo for two87.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:23SYR Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%−0.297% to makeGo for two99.4%45% to convert
- Q4 0:09WSU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.8%97% to makeGo for two1.6%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:1090% → 89%
Q1 13:44
4TH & 15
OWN 38
+5
10.7%
Jack Stonehouse punt for 40 yds , Tony Freeman returns for 5 yds to the WSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2TD8 plays · 68 yds · 3:5711% → 14%
Q1 13:44
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+8
10.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 8 yds to the WSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
10.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kyle Williams for 16 yds to the SYR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+31
10.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kyle Williams for 31 yds to the SYR 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3487% → 87%
Q1 8:07
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+29
14.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 29 yds to the WSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
14.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Yasin Willis for 4 yds to the WSU 19Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
13.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0014% → 16%
Q1 6:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
14.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 12 yds to the WSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
15.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for no gain to the WSU 43Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+34
15.8%
Dean Janikowski punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SYR 49 , Trebor Pena returns for 34 yds to the SYR 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5TD4 plays · 51 yds · 1:1485% → 87%
Q1 2:57
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+18
15.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 18 yds to the WSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
15.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 19 yds to the WSU 12 for a 1ST down Washington State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
12.8%
LeQuint Allen 12 Yd Run (Kyle McCord Pass to LeQuint Allen for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6TD4 plays · 73 yds · 0:5314% → 17%
SYRDrive 7PUNT TD5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5984% → 79%
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.6%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 2 yds to the SYR 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0779% → 83%
WSUDrive 9INT6 plays · 28 yds · 2:1619% → 21%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
19.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Trey Leckner for 18 yds to the WSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
21.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Josh Meredith for 3 yds to the SYR 47Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 13
OPP 47
0
21.0%
Washington State Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10TD9 plays · 94 yds · 2:3880% → 85%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
19.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 10
50
+28
20.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 28 yds to the WSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
19.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 17 yds to the WSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11DOWNS12 plays · 45 yds · 4:1517% → 18%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-24
16.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass intercepted Marlowe Wax return for 24 yds to the WSU 24Similar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
16.7%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass intercepted by Wax,Marlowe at WSU48 Wax,Marlowe return 24 yards to the WSU24 (Gushiken,Kapena; Malani,Nusi) PENALTY SYR Illegal Use Of Hands 10 yards from WSU35 to WSU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
17.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kyle Williams for 9 yds to the SYR 46Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+6
18.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 6 yds to the SYR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
18.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Josh Meredith for 4 yds to the SYR 36Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+6
18.6%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 6 yds to the SYR 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12TD12 plays · 80 yds · 2:5084% → 92%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
14.7%
Kyle McCord sacked by Syrus Webster for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+15
15.1%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun McCord,Kyle pass incomplete deep left to Meeks,Jackson thrown to WSU25 broken up by Colson,Jamorri PENALTY WSU Pass Interference (Colson,Jamorri) 15 yards from WSU45 to WSU30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
14.2%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun McCord,Kyle pass incomplete deep right thrown to WSU06 PENALTY WSU Personal Foul (Roff,Quinn) 15 yards from WSU30 to WSU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
13.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to LeQuint Allen for 10 yds to the WSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 5 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14MISSED FG13 plays · 51 yds · 4:3112% → 12%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
12.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Josh Meredith for 22 yds to the SYR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
12.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 2 yds to the SYR 37Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+15
12.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass incomplete to Kyle Williams. PENALTY SYR UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Barron,Justin) 15 yards from SYR37 to SYR22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-5
13.3%
Zevi Eckhaus sacked by Denis Jaquez Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the SYR 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 15MISSED FG7 plays · 55 yds · 2:5290% → 91%
WSUDrive 16TD11 plays · 79 yds · 4:5411% → 25%
Q3 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
11.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Josh Meredith for 2 yds to the WSU 29Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+13
11.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Trey Leckner for 13 yds to the WSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+4
11.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 4 yds to the SYR 49Similar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
11.7%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass incomplete short right to Williams,Kyle thrown to SYR36 PENALTY SYR Offside (Watson,Maraad) 5 yards from SYR47 to SYR42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+42
25.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 42 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17TD3 plays · 49 yds · 0:3183% → 92%
WSUDrive 18INT7 plays · 10 yds · 1:4511% → 12%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
11.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kyle Williams for 2 yds to the WSU 45Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+5
10.2%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi pass incomplete short right to Ganashamoorthy,Branden thrown to SYR47 broken up by Barron,Justin PENALTY SYR Offside (Heard Jr.,James) 5 yards from WSU46 to SYR49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+5
11.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Josh Meredith for 5 yds to the SYR 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19FG10 plays · 54 yds · 4:4993% → 95%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
7.2%
Kyle McCord sacked by Nusi Malani for a loss of 6 yards to the SYR 22Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 16
OWN 22
-5
7.2%
PENALTY SYR False Start (Allen,LeQuint) 5 yards from SYR22 to SYR17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 21
OWN 17
+49
7.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Darrell Gill Jr. for 49 yds to the WSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
5.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 15 yds to the WSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-14
5.0%
Kyle McCord sacked by Quinn Roff for a loss of 14 yards to the WSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20MISSED FG11 plays · 51 yds · 3:535% → 3%
Q4 8:33
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+29
4.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kyle Williams for 29 yds to the SYR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+8
5.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the SYR 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-10
5.1%
(06:26) No Huddle-Shotgun Eckhaus,Zevi rush right for 10 yards gain to the SYR04 (Chestnut,Duce) PENALTY WSU Holding (Dieu,Brock) 10 yards from SYR14 to SYR24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+4
4.3%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Leo Pulalasi for 4 yds to the SYR 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21TD3 plays · 80 yds · 1:3197% → 99%
WSUDrive 22TD15 plays · 67 yds · 2:541% → 3%
Q4 2:20
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
0.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Djouvensky Schlenbaker for 6 yds to the WSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
0.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Djouvensky Schlenbaker for 10 yds to the SYR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
0.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kyle Williams for 7 yds to the SYR 38Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+5
0.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the SYR 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+20
0.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Chris Barnes for 20 yds to the SYR 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
2.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Branden Ganashamoorthy for 9 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23END OF GAME2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:06
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Carlos Hernandez for 42 yds for a TD (Dean Janikowski KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q3 1:19
Kyle McCord pass complete to Trebor Pena for 45 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK)
-9
TD · Q2 0:13
Kyle McCord pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 5 yds for a TD (Jackson Kennedy KICK)
-5.7