UNLV

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1874th
  Defense+0.0284th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.6%36th
  Defense37.4%91st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3278th
  Defense+1.2939th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2087th
  Defense+0.0558th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1642nd
  Defense+0.0285th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.9%35th
  Defense44.3%76th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.2%30th
  Defense24.9%95th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3487th
  Defense2.6386th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.7%68th
  Defense22.1%88th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.4%62nd
  Defense20.4%93rd

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what UNLV allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   HOU
2. W
   UTU
3. W
   KU
4. W
   FRES
5. L
   SYR
6. W
   USU
7. W
   ORST
8. L
   BOIS
9. W
   HAW
10. W
    SDSU
11. W
    SJSU
12. W
    NEV
13. L
    BOIS
14. W
    CAL

Bars above the line: better than expected for UNLV.

Players, 2024

1. Hajj-Malik WilliamsQB335 plays · +0.213 pts/play · 67th of 232 QBs
   1.34WAR0.74 to 1.87
2. Jai'Den ThomasRB144 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 68th of 373 RBs
   0.34WAR0.22 to 0.45
3. Matthew SlukaQB58 plays · +0.248 pts/play · 162nd of 232 QBs
   0.27WAR0.12 to 0.40
4. Ricky White IIIWR67 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 38th of 452 WRs
   0.21WAR0.03 to 0.39
5. Kylin JamesRB61 plays · +0.141 pts/play · 181st of 373 RBs
   0.16WAR0.12 to 0.20
6. Marshall NicholsP45 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 16th of 106 punters
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.19
7. Caden ChittendenPK23 plays · +0.173 pts/play · 66th of 114 kickers
   0.07WAR0.00 to 0.14
8. Kaleo BallungayTE14 plays · +0.276 pts/play · 39th of 221 TEs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares UNLV's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  57557585th of 131Roster talent: 575, 85th of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  127127105th of 131Recruiting: 127, 105th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  43%43%69th of 130Returning production: 43%, 69th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +9.3+9.336th of 131SP+ rating: +9.3, 36th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than UNLV's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.10 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ORSTQ4 13:28 4th & 1 at ORST 11, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.7 pts
2. vs SYRQ3 3:24 4th & 2 at SYR 2, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
3. at HAWQ4 9:07 4th & 3 at UNLV 37, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. at HAWQ2 2:13 4th & 1 at UNLV 47, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. at BOISQ4 2:14 4th & 21 at BOIS 21, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.2 pts
6. at HOUQ2 1:51 4th & 4 at HOU 4, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs CALQ4 3:35 4th & 3 at CAL 39, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. at ORSTQ1 0:34 4th & 2 at ORST 2, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

14th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up UNLV's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   HOU
2. W

   UTU
3. W

   KU
4. W

   FRES
5. L

   SYR
6. W

   USU
7. W

   ORST
8. L

   BOIS
9. W

   HAW
10. W

    SDSU
11. W

    SJSU
12. W

    NEV
13. L

    BOIS
14. W

    CAL

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at UNLV's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.81
• Clock+0.08
• Timeouts+0.03
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.34

Game by game

• HOUW 27-7 at HOU38% → 100%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +58, Clock +3
• UTUW 72-14 vs UTU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• KUW 23-20 at KU23% → 94%Before kickoff −27 · On the field +72: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• FRESW 59-14 vs FRES53% → 100%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +46, Timeouts −1
• SYRL 41-44 vs SYR61% → 59%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −1: Clock −3, Timeouts +3
• USUW 50-34 at USU89% → 99%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +19, Clock +1
• ORSTW 33-25 at ORST68% → 91%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +43, Possession & field position −2
• BOISL 24-29 vs BOIS37% → 6%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −32: Scoreboard −42, Clock −3
• HAWW 29-27 at HAW75% → 92%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +32, Clock +2
• SDSUW 41-20 vs SDSU90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +15
• SJSUW 27-16 at SJSU70% → 98%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +36, Clock +2
• NEVW 38-14 vs NEV87% → 100%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +13: Scoreboard +17
• BOISL 7-21 at BOIS37% → 0%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −36, Timeouts −1
• CALW 24-13 vs CAL54% → 97%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from UNLV's side.

Closest call

UNM 20-31 UNLV (2022) - UNLV dropped to a 0.6% win probability before pulling it out.