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UNLV

UNLV 27 at Houston 7

HOU
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:22 · (00:22) [NH] Kneel down by NLV at HOU41 (team loss of 1), clock 00:16.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:10: Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 13 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +2.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:49: Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 24 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +7.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:08: Donovan Smith pass incomplete — HOU win probability +3.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:55: Donovan Smith pass complete to Koby Young for 3 yds to the UNLV 49 — HOU win probability +4.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:23: Donovan Smith pass intercepted Jalen Catalon return for 36 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK) — UNLV win probability +14.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UNLV made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:37UNLV 4th & 3 at HOU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:44HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:55HOU 4th & 3 at UNLV 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.7%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:50UNLV 4th & 1 at HOU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−1.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    44.3%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:13HOU 4th & 8 at UNLV 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:25UNLV 4th & 14 at UNLV 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:38HOU 4th & 27 at HOU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−2.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:51UNLV 4th & 4 at HOU 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−9.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:38HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:13UNLV 4th & 13 at UNLV 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:52HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:49UNLV 4th & 8 at HOU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:59HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:29HOU 4th & 17 at UNLV 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−3.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:34UNLV 4th & 5 at HOU 45, up 24
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:20HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 39, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:58UNLV 4th & 5 at HOU 34, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:00UNLV 4th & 7 at HOU 17, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:00HOU 4th & 1 at UNLV 2, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.3
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:10UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:49UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:23UNLV Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:00HOU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1738% → 38%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
62.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+9
62.0%
Matthew Sluka run for 9 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
62.0%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
61.9%
Jacob De Jesus run for 3 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
61.8%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
61.9%
Marshall Nichols punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4462% → 62%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
62.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jonah Wilson for 9 yds to the HOU 29Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
62.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 2 yds to the HOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
62.1%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for no gain to the HOU 31Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
62.0%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for no gain to the HOU 31Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+8
61.7%
Donovan Smith run for 8 yds to the HOU 39 Donovan Smith fumbled, recovered by HOUSimilar
Q1 9:44
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
61.8%
Liam Dougherty punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2638% → 42%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
61.9%
DeAngelo Irvin Jr. pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 42 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
61.2%
Houston Penalty, Defensive Holding (Carlos Allen) to the HOU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
60.8%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
60.9%
Greg Burrell run for 9 yds to the HOU 13Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+13
58.5%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 13 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:0560% → 59%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
59.7%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 1 yd to the HOU 46Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
59.5%
Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+4
59.1%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 3
OPP 48
-7
58.6%
Donovan Smith sacked by Marsel McDuffie for a loss of 7 yards to the HOU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:5343% → 45%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
57.0%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ricky White III for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 48Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+14
56.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ricky White III for 14 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
56.2%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the HOU 29Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+3
55.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the HOU 26Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-5
55.7%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the HOU 31Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+11
55.7%
Matthew Sluka run for 11 yds to the HOU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
54.9%
Matthew Sluka run for 5 yds to the HOU 15Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
54.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the HOU 12Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
54.4%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the HOU 11Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
54.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the HOU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5156% → 54%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
55.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 4 yds to the HOU 15Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 6
OWN 15
0
55.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
54.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
54.2%
Liam Dougherty punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5847% → 55%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
53.5%
Kylin James run for 3 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
53.3%
Kylin James run for 4 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+6
53.1%
Matthew Sluka run for 6 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
52.4%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 18 yds to the HOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
45.3%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 24 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:3148% → 44%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
47.5%
Marquis Shoulders run for 5 yds to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-10
47.2%
(12:19) QB Keeper CHRISS, Zeon rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the HOU29 (MCDUFFIE, Marsel), clock 12:09. PENALTY HOU Holding on YORK, Jayden enforced 10 yards from the HOU27 to the HOU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+18
45.8%
Zeon Chriss run for 18 yds to the HOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
45.9%
(11:31) SANFORD II, Re'Shaun rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU33 (WHITMORE, Alexander), clock 11:26. PENALTY NLV Targeting on ELAD, Jett enforced 15 yards from the HOU35 to the HOU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
50
+2
46.8%
Zeon Chriss run for 2 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
46.5%
Parker Jenkins run for 4 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-4
45.3%
Zeon Chriss run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 9:13
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
43.9%
Liam Dougherty punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:4058% → 59%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
42.0%
Greg Burrell run for 4 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
41.2%
Greg Burrell run for 2 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-10
41.1%
(07:43) SLUKA, Matthew pass deep to the left complete for 23 yards to CAIN, Casey caught at the NLV44 and advanced to the NLV49 (WEBB, Kentrell), out of bounds, clock 07:37. PENALTY NLV Holding on SHANKS, Tiger enforced 10 yards from the NLV26 to the NLV16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-58
41.4%
(07:21) SLUKA, Matthew pass deep to the left complete for 58 yards to WHITE III, Ricky caught at the HOU43 and advanced to the HOU26 (MCCUTCHIN SR., Latrell), clock 07:08. PENALTY NLV Holding on ST. JOHN, Jalen enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the NLV16 to the NLV8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+8
41.2%
Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
41.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 54 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for no gain to the HOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3240% → 38%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
39.9%
Parker Jenkins run for 13 yds to the HOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
39.7%
Donovan Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 28Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
38.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 15
OWN 28
-12
38.0%
Houston Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the HOU 16Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 27
OWN 16
+6
38.0%
Liam Dougherty punt for 40 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:3664% → 67%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
50
-1
36.2%
Jacob De Jesus run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+10
35.8%
Matthew Sluka run for 10 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+36
35.4%
Michael Allen run for 36 yds to the HOU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
34.3%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the HOU 10Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
33.9%
Matthew Sluka run for 4 yds to the HOU 6Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
31.7%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the HOU 4Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.9%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
32.6%
Caden Chittenden 21 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0934% → 33%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
33.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Jonah Wilson for 3 yds to the HOU 23Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
33.5%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 9 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
33.5%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
33.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 3 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
33.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
33.0%
Liam Dougherty punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:1868% → 68%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
31.9%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
31.4%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-3
32.0%
Matthew Sluka sacked by Keith Cooper Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 12Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 13
OWN 12
+1
31.6%
Marshall Nichols punt for 38 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 1 yd to the UNLV 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0535% → 35%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
34.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
34.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5533% → 32%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
32.7%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-3
32.6%
Donovan Smith sacked by Jackson Woodard for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 6Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 13
OWN 6
0
31.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 13
OWN 6
0
31.6%
Liam Dougherty punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the HOU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:5771% → 78%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
29.2%
Jacob De Jesus run for 4 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
28.3%
Kylin James run for 4 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+7
28.0%
Kylin James run for 7 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
27.0%
Kylin James run for 6 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+4
26.1%
Kylin James run for 4 yds to the HOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
25.2%
Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd to the HOU 23Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+1
24.8%
Greg Burrell run for 1 yd to the HOU 22Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
23.2%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
22.4%
Caden Chittenden 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:5023% → 22%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
23.4%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 24Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-10
22.6%
(09:11) SNEED, Stacy rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the HOU32 (CATALON, Jalen;WARE, Jarvis), out of bounds, clock 09:04. PENALTY HOU Holding on BOWIE, Cayden enforced 10 yards from the HOU24 to the HOU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+13
22.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 13 yds to the HOU 27Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
21.6%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
21.5%
Liam Dougherty punt for 7 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3982% → 82%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
18.5%
Jai'Den Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 35Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-48
17.9%
Matthew Sluka pass intercepted A.J. Haulcy return for 48 yds to the HOU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19INT TD
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3223% → 8%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
22.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Koby Young for 3 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
22.7%
Stephon Johnson run for 5 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-10
22.3%
(05:48) SNEED, Stacy rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the NLV42 (MCDUFFIE, Marsel), clock 05:44. PENALTY HOU Holding on DUNN, Peyton enforced 10 yards from the NLV44 to the HOU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-36
7.6%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted Jalen Catalon return for 36 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20MISSED FG
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:547% → 7%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
7.4%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 57 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
8.3%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
8.2%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Mekhi Mews for no gain to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-7
7.4%
Donovan Smith sacked by Cameron Oliver for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 17
OPP 25
+42
6.7%
Jack Martin 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:5095% → 97%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.8%
Michael Allen run for 4 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
4.7%
Michael Allen run for 3 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
4.6%
Matthew Sluka run for 7 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
4.1%
Christian Moore run for 3 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
3.9%
Michael Allen run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
50
+2
3.6%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
3.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd to the HOU 47Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+2
3.3%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the HOU 45Similar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
3.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:053% → 2%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
3.3%
Donovan Smith run for 10 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
3.3%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 4 yds to the HOU 21Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-5
3.0%
Houston Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the HOU 16Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
2.9%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+21
2.8%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Maliq Carr for 21 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
2.9%
Donovan Smith run for 7 yds to the HOU 44Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-8
3.0%
Donovan Smith sacked by Jackson Woodard for a loss of 8 yards to the HOU 36Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+3
2.5%
Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
2.4%
Donovan Smith pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1898% → 98%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
1.8%
DeAngelo Irvin Jr. run for 3 yds to the HOU 36Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
1.7%
DeAngelo Irvin Jr. run for 2 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
1.5%
Matthew Sluka pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
1.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 27 yds, downed at the HOU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:292% → 1%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
1.9%
Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for 6 yds to the HOU 13Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 4
OWN 13
-12
1.6%
Houston Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Donovan Smith) to the HOU 1Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 16
OWN 1
0
1.4%
Donovan Smith pass intercepted Jalen Catalon return for no gain to the HOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25FG
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1499% → 100%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
1.4%
Michael Allen run for 1 yd to the HOU 19Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
1.2%
Michael Allen run for 5 yds to the HOU 14Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+2
1.1%
Michael Allen run for 2 yds to the HOU 12Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 2
OPP 12
-5
0.7%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (Tiger Shanks) to the HOU 17Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
0.2%
Caden Chittenden 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 3:490% → 1%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
0.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for no gain to the HOU 10Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-1
0.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 9Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+23
0.2%
Ui Ale pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 23 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
0.2%
Ui Ale pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 3 yds to the HOU 35Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+14
0.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 14 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
0.2%
Ui Ale pass complete to Koby Young for 10 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
0.2%
Ui Ale pass complete to Maliq Carr for 10 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
0.2%
Ui Ale pass complete to Marquis Shoulders for 20 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
0.2%
Ui Ale pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 6 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
0.2%
Ui Ale pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+3
0.1%
Ui Ale run for 3 yds to the UNLV 2Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
1.0%
Ui Ale pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 2 yds for a TD (Joseph Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:21100% → 100%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
0.3%
(00:43) [NH] Kneel down by NLV at HOU40 (team loss of 2), clock 00:36.Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-1
0.3%
(00:22) [NH] Kneel down by NLV at HOU41 (team loss of 1), clock 00:16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:23
Donovan Smith pass intercepted Jalen Catalon return for 36 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q2 12:49
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 24 yds for a TD (Caden Chittenden KICK)
-7.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:55
Donovan Smith pass complete to Koby Young for 3 yds to the UNLV 49
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com