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CAL

California 13 at UNLV 24

UNLV
2024 · Art of Sport LA Bowl · Dec 18, 2024 · SoFi Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:40 · Marshall Nichols punt for 57 yds, downed at the CAL 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Home team on offense+2.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Pregame prior+2.0Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:04: Kayden McGee 49 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caden Chittenden Kick) — UNLV win probability +2.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:19: Josiah Martin 29 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick) — CAL win probability +5.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:17: Jacob De Jesus 9 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caden Chittenden Kick) — UNLV win probability +7.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. SACK · Q3 10:36: CJ Harris sacked by Antonio Doyle Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the CAL 27 — UNLV win probability +3.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q3 2:13: Kylin James 23 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick) — UNLV win probability +23.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 9 of 11CAL made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 13:21UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:12CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:58UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:45CAL 4th & 6 at UNLV 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:47UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 39, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:56CAL 4th & 10 at UNLV 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:30UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:26CAL 4th & 1 at UNLV 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−2.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:50CAL 4th & 12 at UNLV 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:40UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:58CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−2.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:40UNLV 4th & 9 at CAL 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    61.6%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:08CAL 4th & 21 at CAL 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−5.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:47UNLV 4th & 11 at UNLV 45, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:04CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 39, down 1
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:06UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−2.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:07CAL 4th & 16 at CAL 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−4.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:37UNLV 4th & 8 at midfield, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:09CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:01UNLV 4th & 15 at CAL 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    54% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−1.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:04CAL 4th & 8 at UNLV 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−0.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:35UNLV 4th & 3 at CAL 39, up 11
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.7
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:49CAL 4th & 6 at UNLV 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:04UNLV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:19CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:17UNLV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:13UNLV Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3254% → 54%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.0%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
54.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
54.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
54.1%
Marshall Nichols punt for 36 yds, downed at the CAL 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:0246% → 45%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
54.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-1
54.1%
CJ Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 35Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-10
54.3%
California Penalty, Offensive Holding (Legend Journey) to the CAL 25Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 17
OWN 25
0
54.5%
CJ Harris pass complete to Mikey Matthews for no gain to the CAL 25Similar
Q1 11:12
4TH & 17
OWN 25
0
54.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1454% → 54%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
54.4%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (Mathyus Su'a) to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+1
54.4%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+4
54.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 4 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
54.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
54.2%
Marshall Nichols punt for 47 yds , Isaiah Crosby returns for no gain to the CAL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4FG
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:0446% → 46%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+48
54.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 48 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
53.8%
CJ Harris run for no gain to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
53.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
53.8%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for no gain to the UNLV 25Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
53.8%
Derek Morris 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2854% → 57%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
54.0%
Jacob De Jesus run for 1 yd to the UNLV 31Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
53.7%
Kylin James run for 4 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
53.9%
Kylin James run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
54.4%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jaden BradleySimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
53.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 12 yds to the CAL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
54.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
54.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+49
56.6%
Kayden McGee 49 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caden Chittenden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 4:2043% → 48%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
56.7%
CJ Harris pass complete to Josiah Martin for 4 yds to the CAL 15Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+16
56.8%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jack Endries for 16 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
56.6%
Jaivian Thomas run for 5 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
57.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
56.7%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
57.0%
CJ Harris run for 7 yds to the CAL 49Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
56.7%
CJ Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+22
56.9%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jack Endries for 22 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
51.7%
Josiah Martin 29 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5654% → 60%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 11 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
54.2%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 38Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
54.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
53.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Corey Thompson Jr.Similar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+52
53.4%
Marshall Nichols pass complete to Cameron Oliver for 52 yds to the CAL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
60.4%
Jacob De Jesus 9 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caden Chittenden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 4:1641% → 40%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
58.9%
UNLV Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Johnathan Baldwin) to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
58.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 17 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
57.3%
CJ Harris pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 8 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+5
57.3%
CJ Harris run for 5 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
56.7%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to Trevor RogersSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
56.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 8 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
57.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-3
56.9%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 26Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 13
OPP 26
+3
57.1%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
58.0%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to Ben MarshallSimilar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
59.6%
Derek Morris 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2160% → 59%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
59.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-7
59.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Ryan McCulloch for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+7
59.5%
Devin Green run for 7 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+24
59.1%
Marshall Nichols punt for 46 yds , Isaiah Crosby returns for 24 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10FG
15 plays · 32 yds · 5:3242% → 42%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
58.5%
CJ Harris run for no gain to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-8
58.6%
CJ Harris run for 2 yds to the CAL 42 California Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CAL 48Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 18
OWN 48
0
60.3%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to Tobias MerriweatherSimilar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+12
61.0%
CJ Harris pass complete to Tobias Merriweather for 12 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+5
60.3%
UNLV Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
60.3%
CJ Harris pass complete to Josiah Martin for 4 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
58.0%
CJ Harris pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 12 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
57.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 7
OPP 16
-5
57.9%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+5
58.1%
CJ Harris run for 5 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+12
59.4%
CJ Harris pass complete to Josiah Martin for 12 yds to the UNLV 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
57.9%
CJ Harris pass complete to Jack Endries for 3 yds to the UNLV 1Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
57.7%
Jaivian Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 3Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-9
58.8%
CJ Harris sacked by Johnathan Baldwin for a loss of 9 yards to the UNLV 12Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
58.1%
Ryan Coe 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:0261% → 59%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
60.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 8 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-1
62.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Jasiah Wagoner for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+3
59.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
60.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Kaleo Ballungay for 5 yds to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
61.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Corey Thompson Jr.Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
60.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
58.7%
Marshall Nichols punt for 57 yds, downed at the CAL 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
59.0%
CJ Harris run for 2 yds to the CAL 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4741% → 38%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.2%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 25Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.4%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
60.6%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to Josiah MartinSimilar
Q3 13:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+24
61.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 43 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 24 yds to the CAL 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1264% → 60%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
63.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the CAL 43Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
63.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jai'Den ThomasSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
62.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
59.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:2441% → 38%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
59.4%
CJ Harris pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 13 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
58.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 34Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+13
58.9%
CJ Harris run for 13 yds to the CAL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
56.5%
California Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CAL 37Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 20
OWN 37
-10
59.6%
CJ Harris sacked by Antonio Doyle Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the CAL 27Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 30
OWN 27
0
60.5%
CJ Harris pass incomplete to Jordan KingSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 30
OWN 27
+9
61.7%
CJ Harris run for 9 yds to the CAL 36Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 21
OWN 36
0
62.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 47 yds, downed at the UNLV 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:0861% → 59%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+29
60.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 29 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
63.9%
Kylin James run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 45Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
62.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Kaleo BallungaySimilar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
61.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
59.3%
Marshall Nichols punt for 35 yds, downed at the CAL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3040% → 39%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
60.2%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
60.6%
EJ Caminong pass complete to Jack Endries for 6 yds to the CAL 26Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
61.2%
EJ Caminong run for 7 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
59.6%
EJ Caminong run for 6 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
57.4%
EJ Caminong run for no gain to the CAL 39Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
58.5%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+13
61.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 54 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 13 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4961% → 59%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
61.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 9 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
63.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
61.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
63.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jaden BradleySimilar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-2
61.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 35Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+10
58.9%
Marshall Nichols punt for 45 yds , Isaiah Crosby returns for 10 yds to the CAL 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:3840% → 39%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
60.2%
EJ Caminong pass complete to Jack Endries for 3 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
59.6%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Josiah MartinSimilar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-10
61.4%
EJ Caminong sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the CAL 23 EJ Caminong fumbled, recovered by UNLV Jett Elad , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
84.5%
Kylin James 23 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:5320% → 16%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
79.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 6 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
79.9%
EJ Caminong run for 5 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
79.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for 7 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
79.3%
Jaivian Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 46Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
80.6%
EJ Caminong pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-4
82.0%
EJ Caminong sacked by Fisher Camac for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 42Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
83.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds, downed at the UNLV 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:2384% → 87%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
84.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+16
84.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 16 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
85.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 10 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
86.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 7 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
87.0%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
87.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 1 yd to the UNLV 49Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
88.1%
Jacob De Jesus run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 8
50
0
87.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass incomplete to Jai'Den ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 8
50
0
86.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Crosby at the CAL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2114% → 12%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
86.2%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 14Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
86.7%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+7
87.6%
EJ Caminong run for 7 yds to the CAL 21Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 3
OWN 21
+38
88.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 43 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 38 yds to the CAL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 24FG
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5991% → 92%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
90.5%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 5 yds to the CAL 21Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-5
90.8%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (Jaden Bradley) to the CAL 26Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
91.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for no gain to the CAL 26Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-5
91.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 31Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+48
92.4%
Caden Chittenden 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25FUMBLE
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:518% → 7%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.2%
EJ Caminong pass complete to Jack Endries for 5 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
91.1%
EJ Caminong pass complete to Jack Endries for 6 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
91.6%
EJ Caminong pass complete to Trevor Rogers for 17 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
90.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
91.2%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Mikey MatthewsSimilar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
91.6%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Camden JonesSimilar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 8
OPP 45
-9
92.6%
EJ Caminong sacked by Jett Elad for a loss of 9 yards to the CAL 46 EJ Caminong fumbled, recovered by CAL Jaydn Ott , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:2495% → 96%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
94.9%
Kylin James run for 2 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
95.5%
Kylin James run for 3 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
95.7%
Kylin James run for 2 yds to the CAL 39Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
95.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:393% → 3%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.4%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Jaivian ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
97.3%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Jordan KingSimilar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+20
97.5%
EJ Caminong pass complete to Josiah Martin for 20 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.0%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Jordan KingSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
97.1%
EJ Caminong run for 12 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.9%
EJ Caminong run for 4 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
96.6%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Trevor RogersSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
96.8%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
97.1%
EJ Caminong pass incomplete to Ben MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:4497% → 97%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-1
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:13
Kylin James 23 Yd Run (Caden Chittenden Kick)
+23.1
TD · Q2 13:17
Jacob De Jesus 9 Yd pass from Hajj-Malik Williams (Caden Chittenden Kick)
+7
TD · Q1 0:19
Josiah Martin 29 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com