Georgia

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1665th
  Defense+0.0669th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.8%80th
  Defense38.5%77th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2126th
  Defense+1.2459th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0637th
  Defense+0.0467th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2469th
  Defense+0.0971st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.9%69th
  Defense45.3%65th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.2%82nd
  Defense25.6%91st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8020th
  Defense2.8567th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.3%23rd
  Defense17.2%42nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.7%56th
  Defense15.7%43rd

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   CLEM
2. W
   TNTC
3. W
   UK
4. L
   ALA
5. W
   AUB
6. W
   MSST
7. W
   TEX
8. W
   FLA
9. L
   MISS
10. W
    TENN
11. W
    MASS
12. W
    GT
13. W
    TEX
14. L
    ND

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia.

Players, 2024

1. Carson BeckQB372 plays · +0.329 pts/play · 15th of 232 QBs
   2.29WAR1.61 to 2.96
2. Trevor EtienneRB131 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 60th of 373 RBs
   0.36WAR0.24 to 0.46
3. Gunner StocktonQB56 plays · +0.218 pts/play · 171st of 232 QBs
   0.23WAR0.12 to 0.31
4. Nate FrazierRB102 plays · +0.113 pts/play · 138th of 373 RBs
   0.22WAR0.15 to 0.28
5. Arian SmithWR45 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 70th of 452 WRs
   0.16WAR0.07 to 0.26
6. Brett ThorsonP41 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 26th of 106 punters
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.16
7. Peyton WoodringPK15 plays · +0.362 pts/play · 30th of 114 kickers
   0.10WAR0.07 to 0.14
8. Dillon BellWR65 plays · +0.054 pts/play · 208th of 452 WRs
   0.07WAR−0.07 to 0.20

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  100710072nd of 131Roster talent: 1007, 2nd of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  3113112nd of 131Recruiting: 311, 2nd of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  60%60%37th of 130Returning production: 60%, 37th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +24.3+24.36th of 131SP+ rating: +24.3, 6th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.18 of the 0.22 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UKQ4 0:09 4th & 9 at UK 40, up 1Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−9.8 pts
2. at TEXQ4 4:32 4th & 3 at TEX 3, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−4.7 pts
3. at TEXQ2 1:43 4th & 1 at UGA 29, up 20Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. at MISSQ4 7:22 4th & 10 at MISS 27, down 12Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.3 pts
5. vs NDQ4 9:25 4th & 5 at ND 9, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts
6. vs FLAQ2 1:32 4th & 4 at UGA 47, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at ALAQ4 14:30 4th & 6 at UGA 41, down 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs NDQ3 12:44 4th & 3 at UGA 39, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

47th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   CLEM
2. W

   TNTC
3. W

   UK
4. L

   ALA
5. W

   AUB
6. W

   MSST
7. W

   TEX
8. W

   FLA
9. L

   MISS
10. W

    TENN
11. W

    MASS
12. W

    GT
13. W

    TEX
14. L

    ND

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at Georgia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.44
• Possession & field position+0.07
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts−0.01
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.02

Game by game

• CLEMW 34-3 vs CLEM78% → 100%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +26
• TNTCW 48-3 vs TNTC100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• UKW 13-12 at UK94% → 79%Before kickoff +44 · On the field −15: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• ALAL 34-41 at ALA47% → 4%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −2
• AUBW 31-13 vs AUB91% → 99%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +14, Timeouts +1
• MSSTW 41-31 vs MSST98% → 98%Before kickoff +48 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +7
• TEXW 30-15 at TEX39% → 98%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +58, Clock +3
• FLAW 34-20 vs FLA84% → 99%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +1
• MISSL 10-28 at MISS56% → 0%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −50, Clock +3
• TENNW 31-17 vs TENN75% → 99%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +1
• MASSW 59-21 vs MASS99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +1
• GTW 44-42 vs GT88% → 28%Before kickoff +38 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −29, Timeouts −19
• TEXW 22-19 at TEX43% → 88%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +19
• NDL 10-23 vs ND53% → 2%Before kickoff +3 · On the field −51: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from Georgia's side.

Closest call

GT 42-44 UGA (2024) - Georgia dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.