2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:15 · Wade Penn run for 6 yds to the UGA 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:55: Jalen John run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK) — MASS win probability +1.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:43: Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 34 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:53: AJ Hairston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 75 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK) — MASS win probability +1.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:44: Nate Frazier run for 9 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:39: Nate Frazier run for 15 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MASS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q2 13:16MASS 4th & 27 at UGA 35, tiedClose callPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.17% to convertField goal3.2%45% to makePuntTheir call3.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:30UGA 4th & 4 at MASS 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.3%42% to convertField goal96.3%−<0.190% to makePunt95.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 8:56MASS 4th & 5 at UGA 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.4%42% to convertField goal2.3%−0.142% to makePunt2.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:00MASS 4th & 1 at UGA 6, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%69% to convertField goal2.9%−0.391% to makePunt2.2%−1.0average punt
- Q3 13:08UGA 4th & 10 at MASS 35, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snapGo for it97.0%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call97.0%45% to makePunt96.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:00MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q3 5:41UGA 4th & 1 at MASS 41, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%70% to convertField goal97.1%−0.832% to makePunt97.2%−0.7average punt
- Q3 2:22UGA 4th & 1 at MASS 16, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.8%71% to convertField goal97.4%−0.481% to makePunt96.2%−1.6average punt
- Q4 14:15MASS 4th & 19 at UGA 19, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.210% to convertField goalTheir call0.7%77% to makePunt0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:22UGA 4th & 8 at MASS 38, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%35% to convertField goal99.3%−<0.138% to makePunt99.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:19MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 41, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 4:18MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 34, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:59MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 29, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:15MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.7%97% to makeGo for two1.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:05UGA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:30UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:56UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:55MASS Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.2%97% to makeGo for two4.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:43UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:53MASS Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.1%97% to makeGo for two4.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:44UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:39UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:33UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:28UGA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 5:451% → 1%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.4%
Ahmad Haston pass complete to Sterling Galban for 4 yds to the MASS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1099% → 99%
Q1 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+15
99.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 15 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+10
99.0%
BECK, Carson pass up the middle incomplete intended for SMITH, Arian thrown to the MAS29. PENALTY MAS Holding on ELLIS, Lake enforced 10 yards from the MAS44 to the MAS34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Sacovie White for 8 yds to the MASS 26Similar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
98.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 17 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT12 plays · 40 yds · 6:491% → 2%
Q1 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
98.6%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jacquon Gibson for 5 yds to the UGA 41Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+15
98.6%
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 15 yds to the UGA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-15
97.8%
HAIRSTON, AJ pass short to the right incomplete intended for GALBAN, Sterling thrown to the UGA10. PENALTY MAS Pass Interference on LAY, Jaelyn enforced 15 yards to the UGA28 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 28
-7
97.9%
AJ Hairston sacked by Warren Brinson for a loss of 7 yards to the UGA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD6 plays · 90 yds · 2:4698% → 98%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
97.8%
Dwight Phillips Jr. run for 12 yds to the UGA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
97.8%
Massachusetts Penalty, Roughing the Passer on HARRELL, Jalen enforced (Jalen Harrell) to the MASS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+8
97.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 8 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5FUMBLE1 play · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.8%
Jalen John run for 3 yds to the MASS 28 Jalen John fumbled, recovered by UGA Raylen Wilson R. Wilson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD5 plays · 28 yds · 1:1598% → 99%
MASSDrive 7TD16 plays · 75 yds · 7:012% → 4%
UGADrive 8TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:1296% → 98%
MASSDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10FG7 plays · 45 yds · 1:4898% → 98%
MASSDrive 11TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:152% → 4%
UGADrive 12TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0997% → 99%
MASSDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:442% → 2%
UGADrive 14TD13 plays · 60 yds · 6:1599% → 100%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
50
-10
98.6%
Carson Beck sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the UGA 40 Carson Beck fumbled, recovered by UGA Carson Beck , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+11
98.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Nate Frazier for 11 yds to the MASS 49Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+9
98.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to London Humphreys for 9 yds to the MASS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
98.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 4 yds Dominic Lovett fumbled, recovered by UGA Arian Smith A. Smith return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15MISSED FG6 plays · 56 yds · 2:241% → 1%
Q3 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-23
99.4%
AJ Hairston sacked for a loss of 23 yards to the UGA 28 AJ Hairston fumbled, recovered by MASS , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 42 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
Q4 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
99.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Sacovie White for 8 yds to the UGA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:591% → 1%
Q4 10:19
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+18
99.5%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 42 yds , Malaki Starks returns for 18 yds to the UGA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18TD8 plays · 65 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
Q4 9:28
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+9
99.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Ben Yurosek for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+23
99.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 23 yds to the MASS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
99.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Jaden Reddell for 13 yds to the MASS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD7 plays · 3 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
AJ Hairston pass complete to T.Y. Harding for 5 yds to the MASS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:230% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21END OF GAME3 plays · 15 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:44
Nate Frazier run for 9 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q2 1:55
Jalen John run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK)
-1.6
TD · Q3 12:53
AJ Hairston pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 75 yds for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK)
-1.6