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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 5 yds to the UK 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 3:48: Peyton Woodring 34 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +2.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:05: Alex Raynor 32 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +3.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:03: Alex Raynor 40 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +5.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:20: Branson Robinson run for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +22.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:01: Alex Raynor 51 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +4.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 13:05UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.5%average punt
- Q1 6:34UK 4th & 15 at UK 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snapGo for it12.1%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q1 5:17UGA 4th & 15 at UGA 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.4%−0.315% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.7%average punt
- Q1 2:45UK 4th & 13 at UGA 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.1% before the snapGo for it14.0%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call14.2%42% to makePunt14.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:52UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it83.0%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.2%average punt
- Q2 11:29UK 4th & 6 at UK 37, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.7%average punt
- Q2 8:10UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snapGo for it77.7%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.8%average punt
- Q2 3:48UGA 4th & 3 at UK 16, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snapGo for it74.7%51% to convertField goalTheir call74.2%−0.581% to makePunt69.5%−5.2average punt
- Q3 9:03UK 4th & 2 at UGA 22, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snapGo for it39.3%57% to convertField goalTheir call38.1%−1.272% to makePunt30.1%−9.2average punt
- Q3 3:52UGA 4th & 9 at UK 12, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snapGo for it49.9%−2.127% to convertField goalTheir call52.1%86% to makePunt36.9%−15.1average punt
- Q3 2:17UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snapGo for it45.2%−1.648% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.8%average punt
- Q4 8:01UK 4th & 10 at UGA 32, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snapGo for it28.3%−1.330% to convertField goalTheir call29.6%51% to makePunt26.0%−3.6average punt
- Q4 6:25UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 28, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snapGo for it59.7%−2.936% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.6%average punt
- Q4 2:58UK 4th & 13 at UK 48, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snapGo for it34.5%−0.721% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.2%average punt
- Q4 0:09UGA 4th & 9 at UK 40, up 1Numbers favored field goal by 9.8 ptsPunted · 83.7% before the snapGo for it83.8%−6.232% to convertField goal89.9%34% to makePuntTheir call80.2%−9.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q4 12:20UGA Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.1%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5594% → 94%
Q1 13:05
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+57
6.4%
Brett Thorson punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UK 4 Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nasir Addison) to the UK 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT12 plays · 47 yds · 6:316% → 9%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
6.8%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 6 yds to the UK 28Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+10
7.1%
Vandagriff, Brock pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UK29 (Stackhouse, Nazir), PENALTY UGA holding (Wilson II, Damon) 10 yards to the UK41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+10
7.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 10 yds to the UGA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
8.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Josh Kattus for 3 yds to the UGA 44Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-8
8.6%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Gabe Harris Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the UK 48 Brock Vandagriff fumbled, forced by Gabe Harris Jr., recovered by UK Dylan Ray , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
8.6%
Wilson Berry punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1791% → 91%
Q1 5:59
2ND & 15
OWN 8
0
9.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for no gain to the UGA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4FG6 plays · 15 yds · 2:3210% → 11%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
9.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 18 yds to the UGA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
10.1%
Wilcox, Jamarion rush for 4 yards to the UGA29, PENALTY UK face mask (Dingle, Jordan) 15 yards to the UGA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 25
OPP 48
+5
9.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 5 yds to the UGA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5389% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 3:2312% → 14%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
12.4%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 3 yds to the UK 23Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
12.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 7 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+1
13.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 1 yd to the UK 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 3:1985% → 83%
UKDrive 8FUMBLE9 plays · 15 yds · 3:2517% → 21%
Q2 7:23
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+15
17.5%
Vandagriff, Brock pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY UGA roughing passer (Walker, Jalon) 15 yards to the UK29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.Similar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
18.4%
Vandagriff, Brock pass incomplete to Farrier II, Fred, PENALTY UGA personal foul (Jarrett, Jamaal) 15 yards to the UK44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.Similar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
21.7%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins for a loss of 6 yards to the UGA 49Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 16
OPP 49
-28
21.4%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Raylen Wilson for a loss of 28 yards to the UK 23 Brock Vandagriff fumbled, forced by Raylen Wilson, recovered by UGA Damon Wilson II , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9FG4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5782% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10FG17 plays · 61 yds · 3:4320% → 29%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
22.3%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line Demie Sumo-Karngbaye fumbled, forced by Daylen Everette, recovered by UK Jordan Dingle , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
23.8%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 6 yds to the UGA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12FG12 plays · 61 yds · 5:5226% → 41%
Q3 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+14
28.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 14 yds to the UK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13FG13 plays · 63 yds · 5:1162% → 61%
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+33
38.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 33 yds to the UK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
35.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Nate Frazier for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 47Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+20
39.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 20 yds to the UK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+13
38.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Colbie Young for 13 yds to the UK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3541% → 41%
Q3 2:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
41.2%
Wilson Berry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15TD10 plays · 68 yds · 4:5758% → 80%
UKDrive 16FG13 plays · 43 yds · 4:1927% → 36%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
27.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 11 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+13
30.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 13 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+10
36.0%
Laros, Aidan kickoff 65 yards to the UGA0, Evans III, Anthony return 36 yards to the UGA36, PENALTY UGA holding 10 yards to the UK45, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2866% → 63%
Q4 7:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
31.5%
Carson Beck run for a loss of 5 yards to the UGA 28 Carson Beck fumbled, recovered by UGA Trevor EtienneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 32 yds · 3:2741% → 40%
Q4 5:43
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+10
38.2%
Vandagriff, Brock pass incomplete to Sumo-Karngbaye, Demie, PENALTY UGA holding (Starks, Malaki) 10 yards to the UK30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
40.4%
Wilson Berry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19PUNT14 plays · 45 yds · 2:4966% → 91%
Q4 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+33
33.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 33 yds to the UGA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+8
23.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 8 yds Oscar Delp fumbled, forced by Ty Bryant, recovered by UGA Arian Smith for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-8
20.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the UK 36 Georgia Penalty, Illegal Block (Arian Smith) to the UK 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20END OF GAME3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0725% → 21%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:20
Branson Robinson run for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-22.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-20.5
FG · Q3 9:03
Alex Raynor 40 yd FG GOOD
+5.6