View as
Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Chauncey Bowens run for 4 yds to the UGA 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 4:16: Peyton Woodring 55 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +4.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:01: Carson Beck pass complete to Colbie Young for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +8.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:34: Nolan Hauser 26 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +3.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:15: Nate Frazier run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +8.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:57: Carson Beck pass complete to London Humphreys for 40 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 12:59CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snapGo for it21.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.7%average punt
- Q1 8:56UGA 4th & 8 at CLEM 41, tiedClose callPunted · 77.2% before the snapGo for it77.2%34% to convertField goal77.1%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call77.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:34CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 26, tiedClose callPunted · 23.5% before the snapGo for it23.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.4%−0.3average punt
- Q1 3:27UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 42, tiedClose callPunted · 75.6% before the snapGo for it75.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:15CLEM 4th & 13 at CLEM 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it25.2%−0.421% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.6%average punt
- Q2 8:49UGA 4th & 8 at CLEM 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snapGo for it73.2%−0.330% to convertField goalTheir call73.5%86% to makePunt70.7%−2.8average punt
- Q2 6:21CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 34, down 3Close callPunted · 25.6% before the snapGo for it26.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.2%−0.8average punt
- Q2 4:16UGA 4th & 10 at CLEM 37, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snapGo for it72.9%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call72.9%40% to makePunt72.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:13CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 32, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it22.6%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q2 0:01UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 43, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snapGo for it75.5%−1.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.7%average punt
- Q3 6:34CLEM 4th & 9 at UGA 9, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.6% before the snapGo for it11.5%−0.725% to convertField goalTheir call12.2%89% to makePunt7.6%−4.6average punt
- Q3 1:07CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 34, down 17Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it6.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%−1.0average punt
- Q3 0:02UGA 4th & 11 at UGA 29, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.2%average punt
- Q4 12:19CLEM 4th & 24 at CLEM 14, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it2.1%−2.06% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q4 1:47CLEM 4th & 6 at UGA 19, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.138% to convertField goal0.0%77% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q3 12:01UGA Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.3%97% to makeGo for two86.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:15UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.0%97% to makeGo for two93.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:57UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.1%45% to convert
- Q4 6:09UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 1:5622% → 22%
Q1 14:07
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+5
77.8%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Offside (Mykel Williams) to the CLEM 25Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.7%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Phil Mafah for 2 yds to the CLEM 27Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+9
77.6%
Aidan Swanson punt for 49 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 9 yds to the UGA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 3:3877% → 76%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
77.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 11 yds to the UGA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
77.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for no gain to the UGA 44Similar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
77.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 2 yds to the CLEM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1524% → 24%
UGADrive 4PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5976% → 75%
CLEMDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 33 yds · 2:5125% → 26%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+36
74.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 36 yds to the UGA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 11
50
+2
73.2%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 2 yds to the UGA 48Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+1
73.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 1 yd to the CLEM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6FG14 plays · 68 yds · 6:1274% → 75%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
74.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Branson Robinson for 9 yds to the UGA 29Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
74.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 5 yds to the UGA 37Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+15
74.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 15 yds to the CLEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
74.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 9 yds to the CLEM 39Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+8
75.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Colbie Young for 8 yds to the CLEM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 16
OPP 37
+23
74.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 23 yds to the CLEM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
75.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 6 yds to the CLEM 8Similar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 4
OPP 8
-4
74.9%
Carson Beck sacked by Peter Woods for a loss of 4 yards to the CLEM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:1726% → 24%
UGADrive 8FG5 plays · 31 yds · 1:5075% → 79%
CLEMDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5221% → 21%
Q2 3:13
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
79.3%
Aidan Swanson punt for 37 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for no gain to the UGA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 3:0080% → 78%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 5
OWN 47
-15
80.2%
Georgia Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Arian Smith) to the UGA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5078% → 89%
CLEMDrive 13FG14 plays · 66 yds · 5:1714% → 17%
Q3 11:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
86.6%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Cole Turner for 1 yd to the CLEM 30Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
86.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 19 yds to the CLEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
85.9%
Georgia Penalty, Roughing Passer (Damon Wilson II) to the UGA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+10
84.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 10 yds to the UGA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
85.1%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Jake Briningstool for 5 yds to the UGA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0685% → 95%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
84.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Nate Frazier for 24 yds to the UGA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+23
84.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to London Humphreys for 23 yds to the CLEM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+13
86.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 13 yds to the CLEM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:566% → 6%
Q3 1:07
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
94.5%
Aidan Swanson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5895% → 95%
Q3 0:02
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
94.8%
Brett Thorson punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Antonio Williams at the CLEM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 2:415% → 4%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
94.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 3 yds to the CLEM 18Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
94.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Tyler Brown for 6 yds to the CLEM 24Similar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-12
95.3%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Jalon Walker for a loss of 12 yards to the CLEM 16Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 22
OWN 16
-2
95.8%
Cade Klubnik sacked by Raylen Wilson and Jalon Walker for a loss of 2 yards to the CLEM 14Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 24
OWN 14
+14
96.0%
Aidan Swanson punt for 54 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 14 yds to the UGA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18TD5 plays · 54 yds · 2:0897% → 99%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
96.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 2 yds to the UGA 48Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+11
96.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 11 yds to the CLEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+40
98.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to London Humphreys for 40 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19INT3 plays · 16 yds · 0:081% → 1%
UGADrive 20TD6 plays · 78 yds · 2:2899% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21DOWNS13 plays · 62 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Antonio Williams for 11 yds to the CLEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Bryant Wesco Jr. for 5 yds to the CLEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ellis Robinson IV) to the UGA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
99.9%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Holding (JaCorey Thomas) to the UGA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
99.9%
Cade Klubnik pass complete to Olsen Patt-Henry for 5 yds to the UGA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22END OF GAME3 plays · 6 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:01
Carson Beck pass complete to Colbie Young for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q3 3:15
Nate Frazier run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+8
FG · Q2 4:16
Peyton Woodring 55 yd FG GOOD
+4