Georgia

Profile vs. FBS, 2017

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2593rd
  Defense−0.0492nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.1%90th
  Defense36.8%90th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3190th
  Defense+1.0888th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2293rd
  Defense+0.0164th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3491st
  Defense−0.1096th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.4%81st
  Defense41.5%88th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense39.7%90th
  Defense27.8%90th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0977th
  Defense2.9836th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.7%62nd
  Defense16.5%21st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.4%94th
  Defense17.6%66th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2017

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   APP
2. W
   ND
3. W
   SAM
4. W
   MSST
5. W
   TENN
6. W
   VAN
7. W
   MIZ
8. W
   FLA
9. W
   SC
10. L
    AUB
11. W
    UK
12. W
    GT
13. W
    AUB
14. W
    OU
15. L
    ALA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia.

Players, 2017

1. Jake FrommQB276 plays · +0.232 pts/play · 59th of 226 QBs
   1.20WAR0.65 to 1.74
2. Sony Michel?139 plays · +0.239 pts/play
   0.62WAR0.49 to 0.74
3. Nick Chubb?158 plays · +0.148 pts/play
   0.44WAR0.28 to 0.59
4. Javon WimsWR60 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 63rd of 426 WRs
   0.17WAR0.11 to 0.21
5. Rodrigo BlankenshipPK14 plays · +0.466 pts/play · 44th of 110 kickers
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.17
6. Terry GodwinWR41 plays · +0.086 pts/play · 305th of 426 WRs
   0.07WAR0.02 to 0.11
7. Riley RidleyWR20 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 329th of 426 WRs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.07
8. Brian HerrienRB12 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 274th of 352 RBs
   0.04WAR0.03 to 0.04

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2017

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9309304th of 130Roster talent: 930, 4th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  2852856th of 130Recruiting: 285, 6th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  80%80%25th of 128Returning production: 80%, 25th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +26.7+26.74th of 128SP+ rating: +26.7, 4th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2017

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.21 of the 0.28 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at NDQ4 1:57 4th & 1 at UGA 34, up 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−8.1 pts
2. at AUBQ3 12:00 4th & 1 at UGA 47, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.7 pts
3. vs ALAQ4 2:55 4th & 3 at UGA 28, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
4. at OUQ3 8:08 4th & 1 at UGA 37, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
5. vs ALAQ4 7:10 4th & 1 at UGA 23, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
6. at NDQ3 11:22 4th & 2 at ND 26, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
7. vs ALAQ3 1:55 4th & 6 at ALA 39, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
8. at OUQ4 5:16 4th & 5 at UGA 30, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2017

14th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   APP
2. W

   ND
3. W

   SAM
4. W

   MSST
5. W

   TENN
6. W

   VAN
7. W

   MIZ
8. W

   FLA
9. W

   SC
10. L

    AUB
11. W

    UK
12. W

    GT
13. W

    AUB
14. W

    OU
15. L

    ALA

What moved it, 2017

Every game starts at Georgia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.08
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock+0.09
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.61

Game by game

• APPW 31-10 vs APP86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +18, Timeouts +1
• NDW 20-19 at ND41% → 88%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +45, Clock +4
• SAMW 42-14 vs SAM99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• MSSTW 31-3 vs MSST61% → 100%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +40, Possession & field position −1
• TENNW 41-0 at TENN82% → 100%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +24
• VANW 45-14 at VAN89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +16, Clock +1
• MIZW 53-28 vs MIZ97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +6
• FLAW 42-7 at FLA84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +22, Clock +1
• SCW 24-10 vs SC94% → 99%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +11
• AUBL 17-40 at AUB62% → 0%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −52, Possession & field position −1
• UKW 42-13 vs UK95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8
• GTW 38-7 at GT85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +21
• AUBW 28-7 at AUB60% → 100%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +44, Clock +2
• OUW 54-48 at OU60% → 91%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +16
• ALAL 23-26 vs ALA40% → 11%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −17

Points of win probability, from Georgia's side.

Closest call

GT 42-44 UGA (2024) - Georgia dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.