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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreUK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:07 · Cameron Nizialek punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:56: Javon Wims 27 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +2.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:51: Sony Michel 37 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +3.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:29: Benny Snell Jr. 1 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +5.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:16: Sony Michel 8 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +4.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:17: Nick Chubb 55 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 0 of 2UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 9:40UK 4th & 10 at UGA 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.4%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call8.5%75% to makePunt8.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 0:11UK 4th & 7 at UGA 17, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call11.0%80% to makePunt9.9%−1.1average punt
- Q2 13:49UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 34, up 1Close callPunted · 88.2% before the snapGo for it88.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:26UK 4th & 1 at UK 48, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 7:38UK 4th & 5 at UGA 43, down 1Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snapGo for it14.4%42% to convertField goal13.9%−0.628% to makePuntTheir call14.2%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:18UK 4th & 16 at UK 25, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it8.8%−1.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%average punt
- Q2 0:25UK 4th & 2 at UGA 31, down 15Close callWent for it · 8.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.9%−0.157% to convertField goal8.1%54% to makePunt7.4%−0.7average punt
- Q3 5:36UK 4th & 10 at UK 43, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q3 4:07UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 20, up 15Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snapGo for it95.1%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:43UK 4th & 8 at UK 23, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 5:14UK 4th & 10 at UK 45, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:19UGA Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.3%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:56UGA Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.1%97% to makeGo for two89.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:51UGA Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:29UK Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.8%97% to makeGo for two11.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:16UGA Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:17UGA Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:59UGA Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1INT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4595% → 94%
UKDrive 2FG7 plays · 12 yds · 2:136% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:2193% → 93%
Q1 8:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
93.2%
Chubb, Nick rush for 7 yards to the GEORGIA34, PENALTY GEORGIA illegal formation 5 yards to the GEORGIA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-3
93.0%
Jake Fromm sacked by T.J. Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 19Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+15
92.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Lonnie Johnson) to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+8
92.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 8 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4FG7 plays · 63 yds · 2:308% → 9%
UGADrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1191% → 90%
Q2 13:49
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
90.3%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT14 plays · 42 yds · 6:119% → 12%
UGADrive 7TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:4289% → 92%
Q2 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+20
88.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 20 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
89.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 16 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
91.8%
Javon Wims 27 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:269% → 9%
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
91.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for no gain to the Kent 31Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-6
91.3%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Roquan Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 16
OWN 25
+20
91.5%
Matt Panton punt for 46 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 20 yds to the Geo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD5 plays · 51 yds · 1:2791% → 95%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
91.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 11 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10DOWNS8 plays · 44 yds · 1:186% → 8%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
93.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (D'Andre Walker) to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
93.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 18 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
92.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 4 yds to the Geo 35Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
92.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 4 yds to the Geo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:317% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
93.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Deandre Baker) to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
92.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 19 yds to the Geo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+7
92.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 7 yds to the Geo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:0691% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:407% → 6%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
93.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 18 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-6
93.3%
Stephen Johnson sacked by D'Andre Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 43 Stephen Johnson fumbled, forced by D'Andre Walker, recovered by Kent , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
94.2%
Matt Panton punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2995% → 95%
Q3 4:07
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
95.4%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16INT3 plays · 11 yds · 1:176% → 7%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
93.5%
Lynn Bowden Jr. pass intercepted Aaron Davis return for no gain to the Geo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD7 plays · 88 yds · 3:3396% → 99%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
95.9%
Fromm, Jake rush for 3 yards to the GEORGIA28, PENALTY GEORGIA holding (Thomas, Andrew) 10 yards to the GEORGIA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
95.9%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Geo 18 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
96.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 15 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:261% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD4 plays · 60 yds · 1:4499% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT13 plays · 20 yds · 5:450% → 0%
Q4 9:46
3RD & 1
OWN 36
-13
99.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds to the Kent 36 KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Stephen Johnson) to the Kent 21Similar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
GEORGIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (4 Yards) to the Kent 37Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 7 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-1
99.9%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Tyler Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Matt Panton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ahkil Crumpton at the Geo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21END OF GAME7 plays · 49 yds · 5:14100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:29
Benny Snell Jr. 1 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)
-5.5
TD · Q3 8:16
Sony Michel 8 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)
+4
TD · Q2 1:51
Sony Michel 37 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)
+3.1