2017 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2017 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Lucas Johnson run for 1 yd to the GTech 21 Lucas Johnson fumbled, recovered by GTech Lucas Johnson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:05: Javon Wims 21 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +4.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:48: Ricky Jeune 10 Yd pass from TaQuon Marshall (Brenton King Kick) — GT win probability +8.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:48: Brenton King kickoff for 64 yds , Mecole Hardman return for 29 yds to the Geo 30 — UGA win probability +3.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:03: Sony Michel 4 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +8.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:23: D'Andre Swift 2 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 11:20GT 4th & 8 at GT 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snapGo for it25.5%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.5%average punt
- Q1 3:19GT 4th & 7 at GT 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snapGo for it25.7%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.9%average punt
- Q1 0:39UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 46, up 7Close callPunted · 74.5% before the snapGo for it74.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 9:16GT 4th & 4 at UGA 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.9%48% to convertField goal26.9%−1.047% to makePunt26.3%−1.5average punt
- Q3 13:32UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 25, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snapGo for it75.4%−1.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.5%average punt
- Q3 12:05GT 4th & 7 at GT 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.8%−0.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.4%average punt
- Q3 7:07GT 4th & 14 at GT 17, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it11.2%−1.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%average punt
- Q4 7:28GT 4th & 7 at GT 40, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 0:07UGA 4th & 4 at GT 21, up 31Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%−0.147% to convertField goal99.9%74% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 5:51UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.7%97% to makeGo for two73.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:05UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.3%97% to makeGo for two78.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:48GT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.7%97% to makeGo for two24.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:03UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:23UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:21UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 3:3515% → 17%
Q1 11:20
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+28
16.7%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 48 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 28 yds to the Geo 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD12 plays · 61 yds · 5:2283% → 83%
Q1 10:34
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
16.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 5 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+7
18.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 7 yds to the GTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
18.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 12 yds to the GTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2518% → 18%
Q1 3:19
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+16
18.0%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 50 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 16 yds to the Geo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 2:3482% → 82%
Q1 0:39
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+5
18.3%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 49 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 5 yds to the GTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5DOWNS12 plays · 56 yds · 6:1619% → 21%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+28
18.8%
TaQuon Marshall pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 28 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD5 plays · 65 yds · 2:0480% → 86%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
13.7%
Javon Wims 21 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1215% → 23%
Q2 0:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
23.1%
Ricky Jeune 10 Yd pass from TaQuon Marshall (Brenton King Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8END OF HALF9 plays · 50 yds · 0:3481% → 84%
Q2 0:25
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+9
18.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 9 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
18.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Isaac Nauta for 9 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+23
18.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 23 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0781% → 80%
Q3 13:32
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
19.7%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2718% → 17%
UGADrive 11TD6 plays · 77 yds · 2:4782% → 91%
GTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:5311% → 10%
UGADrive 13TD11 plays · 67 yds · 5:2791% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14INT9 plays · 65 yds · 3:313% → 2%
UGADrive 15TD3 plays · 85 yds · 1:2998% → 100%
GTDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 3:430% → 0%
Q4 7:28
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
0.2%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ahkil Crumpton at the Geo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17DOWNS11 plays · 60 yds · 7:09100% → 100%
Q4 2:43
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+17
0.2%
Elijah Holyfield run for 2 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Victor Alexander) to the GTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18END OF GAME1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.1%
Lucas Johnson run for 1 yd to the GTech 21 Lucas Johnson fumbled, recovered by GTech Lucas JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:03
Sony Michel 4 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)
-8.6
TD · Q2 0:48
Ricky Jeune 10 Yd pass from TaQuon Marshall (Brenton King Kick)
+8.1
TD · Q2 7:05
Javon Wims 21 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)
-4.6