2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:36 · Rodrigo Blankenship 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:24: Brandon Wimbush run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Yoon KICK) — ND win probability +5.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:45: Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 5 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +10.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:34: Sony Michel run for 6 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +16.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:21: Justin Yoon 28 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +12.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- FG · Q4 3:34: Rodrigo Blankenship 30 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +21.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 9 of 14UGA made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 12:48ND 4th & 3 at UGA 22, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snapGo for it65.7%52% to convertField goalTheir call65.7%−<0.172% to makePunt65.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:52UGA 4th & 14 at UGA 24, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it33.7%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.0%average punt
- Q1 9:09ND 4th & 14 at ND 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snapGo for it65.4%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.7%average punt
- Q1 6:36UGA 4th & 7 at ND 9, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snapGo for it34.0%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call34.2%89% to makePunt32.5%−1.7average punt
- Q1 4:29ND 4th & 11 at ND 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snapGo for it63.5%−0.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.1%average punt
- Q1 2:56UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 48, tiedClose callPunted · 36.1% before the snapGo for it36.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:06ND 4th & 7 at ND 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snapGo for it63.1%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.5%average punt
- Q2 14:50UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snapGo for it35.6%−0.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.0%average punt
- Q2 13:23ND 4th & 6 at ND 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snapGo for it63.2%−0.439% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.6%average punt
- Q2 4:14ND 4th & 4 at UGA 24, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snapGo for it63.7%47% to convertField goalTheir call63.5%−0.268% to makePunt59.2%−4.5average punt
- Q2 3:03UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 36, down 3Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snapGo for it33.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 1:48ND 4th & 2 at ND 16, up 3Close callPunted · 63.7% before the snapGo for it63.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:00ND 4th & 6 at UGA 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it65.0%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.5%average punt
- Q3 11:22UGA 4th & 2 at ND 26, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.1% before the snapGo for it35.9%57% to convertField goalTheir call34.5%−1.464% to makePunt27.5%−8.3average punt
- Q3 10:45ND 4th & 6 at UGA 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snapGo for it66.8%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.1%average punt
- Q3 8:38UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snapGo for it30.5%−1.338% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.8%average punt
- Q3 6:22ND 4th & 11 at UGA 20, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snapGo for it65.3%−2.025% to convertField goalTheir call67.2%75% to makePunt58.8%−8.4average punt
- Q3 2:05ND 4th & 1 at UGA 37, down 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.6%70% to convertField goal51.4%−6.240% to makePunt50.8%−6.8average punt
- Q3 0:04UGA 4th & 16 at UGA 41, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snapGo for it41.1%−6.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.8%average punt
- Q4 10:21ND 4th & 1 at UGA 11, down 1Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snapGo for it53.9%71% to convertField goalTheir call51.7%−2.187% to makePunt33.8%−20.1average punt
- Q4 8:30UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 30, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it31.0%−1.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q4 6:47ND 4th & 1 at ND 34, up 2Numbers favored go for it by 5.5 ptsPunted · 65.7% before the snapGo for it68.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.1%−5.5average punt
- Q4 3:34UGA 4th & 5 at ND 12, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snapGo for it31.7%−12.538% to convertField goalTheir call44.2%86% to makePunt19.8%−24.4average punt
- Q4 3:08ND 4th & 10 at ND 25, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snapGo for it36.0%−1.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.8%average punt
- Q4 1:57UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 34, up 1Numbers favored go for it by 8.1 ptsPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it73.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.1%−8.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 12:24ND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.7%97% to makeGo for two68.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:45UGA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.0%97% to makeGo for two34.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:34UGA Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.0%97% to makeGo for two41.8%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNDDrive 1FG9 plays · 53 yds · 1:5759% → 59%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Equanimeous St. Brown, broken up by Dominick SandersSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
58.9%
Wimbush, Brandon pass incomplete to St. Brown, Equanimeous, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Baker, Deandre) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
59.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Cameron Smith for 29 yds to the Geo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2PUNT7 plays · 6 yds · 1:3341% → 40%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
59.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 10 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-8
59.3%
D'Andre Swift run for 2 yds to the Geo 34 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jeb Blazevich) to the Geo 24Similar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 14
OWN 24
-2
59.8%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 42 yds , Chris Finke returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3760% → 59%
UGADrive 4FG7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2640% → 41%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
50
+7
59.2%
Fromm, Jake pass incomplete to Hardman, Mecole (Tranquill, Drue), PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Tranquill, Drue) 7 yards to the NOTREDAME43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
59.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 31 yds to the NDame 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5459% → 58%
Q1 4:29
4TH & 11
OWN 12
-3
58.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 45 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Geo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2442% → 42%
NDDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3859% → 58%
Q1 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 14
-3
59.0%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Roquan Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+5
58.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Cameron Smith for 5 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 7
OWN 16
-4
58.1%
Tyler Newsome punt for 57 yds , Terry Godwin returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0842% → 41%
Q2 14:50
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
59.2%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2159% → 58%
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
59.1%
Brandon Wimbush run for 2 yds to the NDame 31 Brandon Wimbush fumbled, forced by Lorenzo Carter, recovered by NDame Sam MustipherSimilar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 6
OWN 33
+28
57.9%
Tyler Newsome punt for 59 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 28 yds to the Geo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10FUMBLE1 play · -4 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
57.0%
Jake Fromm run for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 32 Jake Fromm fumbled, recovered by NDame Daelin HayesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD6 plays · 32 yds · 0:4861% → 67%
Q2 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+35
61.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Josh Adams for 32 yds to the Geo 5 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (Dominick Sanders) to the Geo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD14 plays · 62 yds · 5:2136% → 47%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
64.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+11
63.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Nick Chubb for 11 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
63.5%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Javon Wims, broken up by Nick WatkinsSimilar
Q2 6:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 5 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13FG7 plays · 40 yds · 2:1460% → 64%
UGADrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5339% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0962% → 60%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
62.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Cameron Smith, broken up by Deandre BakerSimilar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+6
61.1%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Josh Adams for 6 yds to the NDame 16Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
60.3%
Tyler Newsome punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mecole Hardman at the Geo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16INT3 plays · 0 yds · 1:1441% → 39%
NDDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2065% → 63%
UGADrive 18MISSED FG10 plays · 49 yds · 3:3038% → 40%
NDDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 0:3064% → 63%
UGADrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5437% → 34%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
62.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Mecole Hardman for 4 yds to the Geo 17Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 4
OWN 19
-2
64.1%
Jake Fromm sacked by Nyles Morgan for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 17Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
65.7%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21FG10 plays · 33 yds · 2:0967% → 71%
Q3 7:55
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+12
64.7%
Wimbush, Brandon pass incomplete to Smythe, Durham, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Sanders, Dominick) 12 yards to the GEORGIA42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
68.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Cameron Smith for 11 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
69.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 7 yds to the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3731% → 54%
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
68.8%
Jake Fromm sacked by Jonathan Bonner for a loss of 6 yards to the Geo 19Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+29
70.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Riley Ridley for 14 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Personal Foul (Julian Okwara) to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+46
62.5%
D'Andre Swift run for 40 yds to the NOTREDAME 12 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (Devin Studstill) to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 23FUMBLE12 plays · 31 yds · 2:3053% → 60%
Q3 3:43
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+9
51.0%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Equanimeous St. Brown for 9 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
54.7%
Josh Adams run for 4 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Aaron Davis) to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
57.9%
Brandon Wimbush pass incomplete to Cameron Smith, broken up by Deandre BakerSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+9
54.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Alize Mack for 9 yds to the Geo 37Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-12
60.1%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Lorenzo Carter for a loss of 12 yards to the Geo 47 Brandon Wimbush fumbled, forced by Lorenzo Carter, recovered by Geo Lorenzo Carter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 1:4052% → 46%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
47.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole Hardman, broken up by Nick WatkinsSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-2
49.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Sony Michel for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 46Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
53.7%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 25FG15 plays · 73 yds · 4:4053% → 68%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
52.6%
Wimbush, Brandon pass complete to Smith, Cameron for loss of 1 yard to the NOTREDAME15, PENALTY GEORGIA face mask (Holyfield, Elijah) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
53.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Josh Adams for no gain to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
53.2%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Michael Young for 4 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+17
54.6%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 2 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Julian Rochester) to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+17
57.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 17 yds to the Geo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 26PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3937% → 34%
NDDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3166% → 64%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 28FG9 plays · 63 yds · 3:0538% → 63%
NDDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1848% → 41%
UGADrive 30PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0364% → 70%
Q4 1:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
30.2%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 31FUMBLE3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2338% → 39%
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+17
36.4%
Brandon Wimbush pass complete to Chris Finke for 17 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
39.2%
Brandon Wimbush sacked by Davin Bellamy for a loss of 11 yards to the NDame 25 Brandon Wimbush fumbled, forced by Davin Bellamy, recovered by Geo Lorenzo Carter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 32END OF GAME3 plays · -6 yds · 0:5782% → 88%
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 3:34
Rodrigo Blankenship 30 yd FG GOOD
-21.3
TD · Q3 4:34
Sony Michel run for 6 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
-16.9
FG · Q4 10:21
Justin Yoon 28 yd FG GOOD
+12.5