Georgia

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3197th
  Defense−0.1099th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense49.9%92nd
  Defense32.7%99th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2645th
  Defense+1.1979th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1969th
  Defense−0.0595th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4496th
  Defense−0.1299th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.4%88th
  Defense36.4%99th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense37.1%90th
  Defense27.0%81st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3582nd
  Defense2.7384th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense14.1%76th
  Defense19.1%75th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense11.9%97th
  Defense20.2%94th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   CLEM
2. W
   UAB
3. W
   SC
4. W
   VAN
5. W
   ARK
6. W
   AUB
7. W
   UK
8. W
   FLA
9. W
   MIZ
10. W
    TENN
11. W
    CHSO
12. W
    GT
13. L
    ALA
14. W
    MICH
15. W
    ALA

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia.

Players, 2021

1. Stetson BennettQB202 plays · +0.334 pts/play · 79th of 219 QBs
   1.26WAR0.77 to 1.75
2. Zamir WhiteRB96 plays · +0.189 pts/play · 128th of 387 RBs
   0.34WAR0.24 to 0.43
3. James CookRB71 plays · +0.232 pts/play · 145th of 387 RBs
   0.31WAR0.25 to 0.37
4. JT DanielsQB32 plays · +0.228 pts/play · 190th of 219 QBs
   0.14WAR0.06 to 0.22
5. Kenny McIntoshRB29 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 298th of 387 RBs
   0.09WAR0.07 to 0.11
6. Jack PodlesnyPK14 plays · +0.282 pts/play · 63rd of 128 kickers
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.11
7. Kendall MiltonRB20 plays · +0.193 pts/play · 307th of 387 RBs
   0.07WAR0.06 to 0.09
8. Jermaine BurtonWR12 plays · +0.196 pts/play · 394th of 474 WRs
   0.04WAR0.03 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  100210022nd of 130Roster talent: 1002, 2nd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  3103102nd of 130Recruiting: 310, 2nd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  97%97%11th of 128Returning production: 97%, 11th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +32.0+32.01st of 130SP+ rating: +32.0, 1st of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.09 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ALAQ3 0:00 4th & 9 at ALA 19, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.4 pts
2. at CLEMQ2 6:28 4th & 1 at UGA 34, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. at AUBQ4 14:52 4th & 3 at AUB 4, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. at ALAQ3 11:03 4th & 7 at ALA 40, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. vs ARKQ3 6:10 4th & 1 at UGA 28, up 27Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
6. at TENNQ2 9:42 4th & 2 at TENN 22, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. at TENNQ2 5:08 4th & 3 at UGA 40, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at AUBQ3 10:07 4th & 4 at AUB 26, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

35th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   CLEM
2. W

   UAB
3. W

   SC
4. W

   VAN
5. W

   ARK
6. W

   AUB
7. W

   UK
8. W

   FLA
9. W

   MIZ
10. W

    TENN
11. W

    CHSO
12. W

    GT
13. L

    ALA
14. W

    MICH
15. W

    ALA

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Georgia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.75
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock+0.08
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.84

Game by game

• CLEMW 10-3 at CLEM50% → 96%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +48, Clock +3
• UABW 56-7 vs UAB94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +8
• SCW 40-13 vs SC98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• VANW 62-0 at VAN98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +4
• ARKW 37-0 vs ARK90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +13
• AUBW 34-10 at AUB86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +21, Clock +1
• UKW 30-13 vs UK94% → 99%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +10
• FLAW 34-7 at FLA86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +20
• MIZW 43-6 vs MIZ99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• TENNW 41-17 at TENN92% → 99%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +15, Clock +1
• CHSOW 56-7 vs CHSO100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• GTW 45-0 at GT98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• ALAL 24-41 at ALA72% → 1%Before kickoff +22 · On the field −71: Scoreboard −51, Timeouts −2
• MICHW 34-11 at MICH73% → 100%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +34, Clock +2
• ALAW 33-18 at ALA64% → 99%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +43, Clock +1

Points of win probability, from Georgia's side.

Closest call

GT 42-44 UGA (2024) - Georgia dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.