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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreUK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:22 · Jake Camarda punt for 41 yds, downed at the Kent 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:54: Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 19 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +1.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:35: Zamir White run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +2.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:53: Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +4.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:13: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 27 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +4.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:21: Jack Podlesny 26 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 10:07UK 4th & 16 at UK 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q1 8:12UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snapGo for it89.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.4%average punt
- Q1 6:24UK 4th & 2 at UK 28, tiedClose callPunted · 11.0% before the snapGo for it11.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:49UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snapGo for it88.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.4%average punt
- Q1 2:29UK 4th & 1 at UK 14, tiedClose callPunted · 12.3% before the snapGo for it12.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 12:46UK 4th & 8 at UK 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snapGo for it11.2%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q2 2:22UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.6%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.8%average punt
- Q2 0:38UK 4th & 15 at UK 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snapGo for it11.1%−1.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q3 11:16UK 4th & 7 at UK 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q3 7:21UGA 4th & 8 at UK 9, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.2% before the snapGo for it92.5%−0.527% to convertField goalTheir call93.0%89% to makePunt88.9%−4.1average punt
- Q3 5:08UK 4th & 5 at UK 30, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q3 3:39UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 20, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it94.9%−0.627% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q4 7:00UK 4th & 4 at UK 47, down 23Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.7%average punt
- Q4 1:42UK 4th & 1 at UGA 15, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%71% to convertField goal0.5%−0.183% to makePunt0.4%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 14:54UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two88.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:35UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.2%97% to makeGo for two91.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:53UK Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.6%97% to makeGo for two12.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:13UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.6%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:27UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call99.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.2%45% to convert
- Q4 0:04UK Touchdown, down 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call1.8%97% to makeGo for two1.6%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 19 yds · 4:486% → 7%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
93.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 14 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 16
OWN 45
0
93.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for no gain to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 10:07
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
93.1%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 40 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for no gain to the Geo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4493% → 93%
Q1 9:29
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+21
92.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 21 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3FUMBLE5 plays · 8 yds · 1:458% → 8%
Q1 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+4
92.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 4 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+43
92.2%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 43 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 28 Kearis Jackson fumbled, recovered by Geo Kearis JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1192% → 92%
Q1 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+11
92.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 11 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:019% → 9%
UGADrive 6TD6 plays · 50 yds · 2:2591% → 92%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
50
+10
91.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 10 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
91.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 15 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-5
91.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+9
90.6%
Stetson Bennett run for 9 yds to the Kent 19 Stetson Bennett fumbled, recovered by Geo Kendall MiltonSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+19
92.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 19 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:438% → 8%
Q2 14:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+2
91.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 2 yds to the Kent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0591% → 94%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
91.4%
Zamir White run for 2 yds to the Geo 22 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (John FitzPatrick) to the Geo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:307% → 12%
Q2 7:57
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+16
92.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 16 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
92.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 9 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
92.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 3 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
91.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 19 lat. to Kavosiey Smoke for 14 yds to the Geo 19Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+2
91.8%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (2 Yards) to the Geo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+11
91.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for 11 yds to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2289% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3111% → 10%
Q2 1:30
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
89.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for no gain to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-4
89.4%
Will Levis sacked by Jalen Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 26Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
89.8%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 50 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for no gain to the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4289% → 94%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
89.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 16 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
89.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 25 yds to the GEORGIA 34 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Shaffer) to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+27
94.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 27 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:517% → 7%
UGADrive 15FG8 plays · 63 yds · 3:4294% → 96%
Q3 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+15
93.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Zamir White for 15 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
94.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to John FitzPatrick for 20 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
94.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 22 yds to the Kent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
94.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 5 yds to the Kent 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:045% → 4%
Q3 5:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
95.5%
Will Levis sacked by Travon Walker and Adam Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2396% → 96%
Q3 4:40
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-4
96.3%
Stetson Bennett sacked by DeAndre Square for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18MISSED FG9 plays · 40 yds · 3:294% → 4%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
95.8%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 16 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
95.7%
Will Levis pass complete to DeMarcus Harris for 15 yds to the Geo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+12
95.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 12 yds to the Geo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
95.5%
Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 15Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 0
OPP 15
+33
96.0%
Matt Ruffolo 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Devonte Wyatt Dan Jackson return for 16 yds to the Geo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD8 plays · 82 yds · 3:2897% → 99%
UKDrive 20TD27 plays · 75 yds · 11:101% → 1%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Brenden Bates for 5 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
99.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 11 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
99.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for no gain to the Kent 38Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Brenden Bates for 8 yds to the Geo 38Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
99.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 4 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-9
99.4%
Will Levis sacked by Kelee Ringo for a loss of 9 yards to the Geo 43Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+10
99.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 10 yds to the Geo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
99.5%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 25Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+10
99.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Izayah Cummings for 10 yds to the Geo 15Similar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
99.5%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 3 yds to the Geo 10Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
99.5%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 9 yds to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.4%
GEORGIA Penalty, Sideline Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:13
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 27 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 3:53
Will Levis pass complete to Justin Rigg for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
-4
TD · Q2 10:35
Zamir White run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+2.5