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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds to the UAB 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 14:22: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 73 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UAB win probability +0.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 10:17: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 12 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:14: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 89 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +1.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:09: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Arian Smith for 61 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +1.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:42: James Cook run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:47UAB 4th & 18 at UAB 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%average punt
- Q1 4:39UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 38, up 14Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:28UAB 4th & 17 at UAB 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it8.0%−0.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.4%average punt
- Q2 14:45UAB 4th & 14 at UAB 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.0%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q2 11:23UAB 4th & 9 at UGA 41, down 28Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%32% to convertField goal2.0%−0.532% to makePuntTheir call2.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:20UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 20, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it96.9%−0.327% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q2 6:34UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 43, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.0%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.2%average punt
- Q2 4:01UAB 4th & 8 at UAB 9, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.632% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q3 12:55UAB 4th & 8 at UAB 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 3:30UAB 4th & 1 at UGA 41, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%70% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.232% to makePunt0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 1:00UAB 4th & 4 at UGA 30, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%48% to convertField goal0.1%−0.156% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:02UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 34, down 56Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:20UGA 4th & 3 at UAB 44, up 49Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.152% to convertField goal100.0%27% to makePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UAB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 14:22UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:17UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:14UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:09UGA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:13UGA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:42UGA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:11UGA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:14UGA Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:02UAB Touchdown, down 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3094% → 94%
UABDrive 2PUNT7 plays · -8 yds · 1:156% → 6%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 1 yd to the UAB 26Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+6
93.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the UAB 17Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
93.7%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kalen Jackson at the Geo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD7 plays · 40 yds · 2:1794% → 94%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
93.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 10 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+5
93.7%
UAB Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UAB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
93.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 12 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4INT9 plays · 26 yds · 3:226% → 6%
UGADrive 5PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5094% → 94%
Q1 4:39
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
94.2%
Jake Camarda punt for 39 yds, fair catch by J.J. Green at the UAB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:526% → 6%
Q1 3:30
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+16
93.7%
Brown Jr., Jermaine rush for 8 yards to the UAB39, PENALTY GEORGIA face mask 16 yards to the GEORGIA45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UAB.Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-8
93.5%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Adam Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the UAB 48Similar
Q1 1:28
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
93.6%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7TD1 play · 89 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
95.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 89 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:154% → 4%
UGADrive 9TD1 play · 61 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
97.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Arian Smith for 61 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 2:282% → 2%
UGADrive 11DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5598% → 98%
Q2 10:20
4TH & 10
OWN 20
-2
98.0%
Jake Camarda punt for 60 yds , Starling Thomas V returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 10 yds · 1:352% → 1%
Q2 9:26
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+5
98.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 5 yds to the UAB 18Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 10
OWN 18
+10
98.6%
Greenwell, Kyle punt 47 yards to the GEORGIA35, Jackson, Kearis return 34 yards to the UAB31, PENALTY GEORGIA holding 10 yards to the GEORGIA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UAB.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q2 8:12
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-1
98.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 9 yds to the GEORGIA 49 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Geo 41Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
98.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to John FitzPatrick for 6 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
98.6%
Jake Camarda punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 2:201% → 1%
UGADrive 15TD6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3399% → 99%
Q2 1:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16END OF HALF3 plays · 5 yds · 0:131% → 1%
UABDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:311% → 1%
UGADrive 18TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:52100% → 100%
UABDrive 19INT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:080% → 0%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.7%
Johnston III, Tyler pass incomplete to Johnson-Sanders, RaJae', PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference 12 yards to the UAB37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UAB.Similar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted Kelee Ringo return for no gain to the Geo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20TD4 plays · 60 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
99.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 32 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+15
99.7%
Beck, Carson pass incomplete, PENALTY UAB pass interference 15 yards to the UAB12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Justin Robinson for 12 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21DOWNS12 plays · 41 yds · 6:000% → 0%
UGADrive 22MISSED FG12 plays · 51 yds · 4:56100% → 100%
Q3 0:15
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+12
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 12 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:360% → 0%
UABDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 8:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ladd McConkey at the Geo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25INT TD5 plays · 42 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
UGADrive 26DOWNS9 plays · 33 yds · 4:40100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:09
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Arian Smith for 61 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q1 1:14
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 89 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q1 10:17
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 12 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+0.3