2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:24 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:02: JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 25 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:11: Zamir White run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 6:42: JT Daniels pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:08: Ladd McConkey run for 24 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:15: Jack Podlesny 31 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 9 of 11UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 13:14VAN 4th & 14 at VAN 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q1 10:19VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q1 5:23VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 14:17VAN 4th & 8 at UGA 31, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call1.7%54% to makePunt1.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:51VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 16, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 2:29UGA 4th & 1 at VAN 3, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.6%63% to convertField goal98.4%−0.293% to makePunt98.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:59VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 4, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.227% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 0:15UGA 4th & 4 at VAN 14, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.146% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%84% to makePunt98.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 10:16VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 27, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 6:22VAN 4th & 17 at VAN 5, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 4:16UGA 4th & 7 at VAN 19, up 52Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%77% to makePunt99.0%−0.4average punt
- Q3 1:53VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 12, down 55Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:56VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 33, down 62Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 8:29UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 13, up 62Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 4:22UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 5, up 62Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 1:39VAN 4th & 8 at UGA 23, down 62Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.133% to convertField goal0.1%70% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 11:21UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:02UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:11UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:42UGA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:08UGA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:57UGA Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:11UGA Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:06UGA Touchdown, up 61 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVANDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:362% → 2%
Q1 13:14
4TH & 14
OWN 13
0
1.9%
Harrison Smith punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD5 plays · 49 yds · 1:4998% → 98%
VANDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:582% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD6 plays · 63 yds · 2:0998% → 98%
Q1 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+28
2.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 28 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
2.3%
JT Daniels pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 2 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+25
2.2%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 25 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3198% → 98%
VANDrive 6INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-20
2.0%
Ken Seals pass intercepted Christopher Smith return for 20 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7TD2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0898% → 98%
VANDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:551% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD5 plays · 71 yds · 2:0598% → 99%
VANDrive 10MISSED FG11 plays · 44 yds · 3:481% → 2%
UGADrive 11INT8 plays · 43 yds · 3:1499% → 99%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
50
+9
1.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 9 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+4
1.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 4 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
1.1%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete to Johnson, Jaylen, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference 15 yards to the VANDERBILT22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-4
1.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 26Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 14
OPP 26
0
1.1%
Stetson Bennett pass intercepted Ethan Barr return for no gain to the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 2:041% → 1%
UGADrive 13DOWNS11 plays · 62 yds · 6:1699% → 99%
Q2 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+12
1.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
50
+27
1.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 27 yds to the VANDERBILT 23 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 15
-4
0.9%
Kenny McIntosh run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 19 Kenny McIntosh fumbled, recovered by Geo Kenny McIntoshSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+10
0.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 10 yds to the Vandy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q2 0:59
4TH & 9
OWN 4
0
0.5%
Harrison Smith punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15FG6 plays · 36 yds · 0:3399% → 99%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
50
+17
0.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 17 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
0.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 13 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
0.6%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Kearis Jackson, broken up by Devin LeeSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
0.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Justin Robinson for 6 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD8 plays · 72 yds · 3:5899% → 100%
Q3 10:57
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+29
0.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 29 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:290% → 0%
UGADrive 19TD5 plays · 61 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
0.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to John FitzPatrick for 28 yds to the Vandy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q3 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-10
0.2%
Ken Seals sacked by Robert Beal Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the Vandy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21FG6 plays · 16 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+11
0.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 11 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:070% → 0%
UGADrive 23TD9 plays · 47 yds · 3:24100% → 100%
Q4 14:38
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+5
0.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 10:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
0.1%
Harrison Smith punt for 58 yds , Ladd McConkey returns for no gain to the Geo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 8:29
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
0.3%
Jake Camarda punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:430% → 0%
UGADrive 27PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 3:15100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28DOWNS7 plays · 11 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q4 3:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+10
0.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 10 yds to the Geo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · -3 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 7:11
Zamir White run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-0.3
TD · Q1 6:42
JT Daniels pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-0.3
TD · Q1 8:02
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 25 yds for a TD (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-0.2