2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadCHSO aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreCHSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:58 · Jake Camarda punt for 46 yds , Garris Schwarting returns for 10 yds to the ChaSo 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:33: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 32 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:15: Zamir White run for 40 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:29: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:39: James Cook run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — CHSO win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7CHSO made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
- Q1 12:32CHSO 4th & 10 at CHSO 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 6:28CHSO 4th & 22 at CHSO 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 5:33UGA 4th & 5 at CHSO 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%42% to convertField goal99.3%−<0.151% to makePunt99.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:26CHSO 4th & 12 at CHSO 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 2:18CHSO 4th & 21 at CHSO 14, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 0:51CHSO 4th & 10 at CHSO 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 12:04CHSO 4th & 10 at UGA 41, down 35Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%30% to convertField goal0.2%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:58UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 22, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q2 9:28CHSO 4th & 15 at CHSO 37, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 4:36CHSO 4th & 2 at CHSO 33, down 42Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:29CHSO 4th & 6 at CHSO 29, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 12:27UGA 4th & 11 at UGA 39, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 10:58CHSO 4th & 4 at CHSO 26, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 7:52UGA 4th & 2 at CHSO 2, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.194% to makePunt99.4%−0.6average punt
- Q3 0:00CHSO 4th & 26 at CHSO 20, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 13:28UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 48, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 10:38CHSO 4th & 1 at CHSO 39, down 49Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:08UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 22, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 4:02CHSO 4th & 5 at UGA 12, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.138% to convertField goal0.0%86% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:50UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 21, up 49Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it100.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CHSO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:01UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:33UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:15UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:29UGA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:39UGA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:40UGA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:37UGA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:40CHSO Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:26UGA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1INT5 plays · 51 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
CHSODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q1 12:32
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+16
99.7%
Miller Braddock punt for 57 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for 16 yds to the Geo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD8 plays · 73 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q1 11:01
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+14
99.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 14 yds to the ChaSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 4PUNT10 plays · 0 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.7%
Jack Chambers sacked by Channing Tindall and Travon Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the ChaSo 17Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+10
99.7%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Latavious Brini) to the ChaSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+6
99.6%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Cayden Jordan for 6 yds to the ChaSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-12
99.6%
Jack Chambers sacked by Robert Beal Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the ChaSo 25Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 22
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Miller Braddock punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ChaSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD4 plays · 37 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
CHSODrive 6PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:490% → 0%
UGADrive 7TD1 play · 40 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 8PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 1:420% → 0%
UGADrive 9TD2 plays · 23 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
CHSODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q1 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Miller Braddock punt for 47 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for 1 yd to the Geo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11TD8 plays · 71 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+15
99.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 15 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 15 yds to the ChaSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
99.8%
James Cook run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 36 for a 1ST down CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, Personal Foul (Anton Williams) to the ChaSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
99.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 18 yds to the ChaSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 12PUNT6 plays · 34 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Roderick Hawkins for no gain to the Geo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q2 10:58
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+10
99.6%
Jake Camarda punt for 46 yds , Garris Schwarting returns for 10 yds to the ChaSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 14PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:170% → 0%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.8%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Garris Schwarting for 1 yd to the ChaSo 43Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-6
99.8%
Jack Chambers sacked by Devonte Wyatt for a loss of 6 yards to the ChaSo 37Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 15
OWN 37
+34
99.8%
Miller Braddock punt for 48 yds , Ladd McConkey returns for 34 yds to the Geo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15TD6 plays · 51 yds · 2:30100% → 100%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
99.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 12 yds to the ChaSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
99.8%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 20 yds to the ChaSo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Brock Bowers for 7 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 16PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:390% → 0%
UGADrive 17TD7 plays · 40 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q2 3:42
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+16
99.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 16 yds to the ChaSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 5 yds to the ChaSo 19Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 4 yds Kenny McIntosh fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+9
99.9%
JT Daniels pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 9 yds to the ChaSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 18END OF HALF4 plays · 1 yds · 1:250% → 0%
CHSODrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · 4 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q3 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Garris Schwarting for 1 yd to the ChaSo 29Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.9%
Miller Braddock punt for 26 yds , Dominick Blaylock returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 40 Dominick Blaylock fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:33100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 21PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:020% → 0%
UGADrive 22INT7 plays · 42 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
CHSODrive 23FUMBLE RETURN TD6 plays · 15 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.9%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Danuel Oscar for 8 yds to the ChaSo 28Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+65
99.9%
J. Chambers pass intercepted, X. Sorey Jr. return for 2 yds, fumbled, recovered by G. Schwarting, returned 65 yds for TD (S. Babbush KICK)Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.9%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ChaSo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 24TD6 plays · 50 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q3 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+10
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 10 yds to the ChaSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+30
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brett Seither for 30 yds to the ChaSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brett Seither for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 25PUNT9 plays · -5 yds · 3:150% → 0%
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-12
100.0%
Jack Chambers sacked by Smael Mondon Jr. for a loss of 12 yards to the ChaSo 24Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 21
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, False Start (Nivon Holland) to the ChaSo 20Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 26
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
Miller Braddock punt for 48 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 4 yds to the Geo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 26PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 1 yd to the Geo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 27PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q4 10:38
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Miller Braddock punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the Geo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 28PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 29DOWNS13 plays · 59 yds · 4:590% → 0%
Q4 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+8
100.0%
Jack Chambers pass complete to TJ Ruff for 8 yds to the ChaSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
100.0%
Jack Chambers pass complete to Garris Schwarting for 28 yds to the Geo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
100.0%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, False Start (Jacob Tylski) to the Geo 33Similar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 15
OPP 33
-1
100.0%
Ross Malmgren pass complete to Ja'Rell Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 34Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+15
100.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Lovasea Carroll) to the Geo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
100.0%
Ross Malmgren pass complete to Demetrius Jones for 2 yds to the Geo 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 30PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 31END OF GAME3 plays · 5 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 5:33
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 32 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q1 4:15
Zamir White run for 40 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q1 1:29
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+0.1