2021 · CFP Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl · Dec 31, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Kendall Milton run for 5 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:41: Kenny McIntosh pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 18 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +3.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:26: Jack Podlesny 43 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +2.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 7:16: Jake Moody 36 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +1.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:50: Jack Podlesny 28 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +2.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:38: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 57 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 7:59MICH 4th & 4 at UGA 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.3%48% to convertField goal32.9%−0.432% to makePunt33.0%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:10MICH 4th & 18 at MICH 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snapGo for it27.3%−1.312% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.6%average punt
- Q2 12:26UGA 4th & 9 at MICH 26, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snapGo for it73.1%−0.631% to convertField goalTheir call73.7%64% to makePunt69.5%−4.2average punt
- Q2 7:16MICH 4th & 9 at UGA 18, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snapGo for it23.2%−0.530% to convertField goalTheir call23.7%79% to makePunt20.5%−3.2average punt
- Q2 3:50UGA 4th & 6 at MICH 11, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snapGo for it76.2%−0.335% to convertField goalTheir call76.5%87% to makePunt70.9%−5.6average punt
- Q2 2:15MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.1%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.5%average punt
- Q3 8:17UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 22, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.7%−0.632% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.3%average punt
- Q3 1:59UGA 4th & 22 at MICH 28, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.48% to convertField goalTheir call96.7%60% to makePunt95.9%−0.8average punt
- Q4 14:46MICH 4th & 6 at UGA 41, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.6%40% to convertField goal3.4%−0.232% to makePunt3.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:00MICH 4th & 5 at UGA 5, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%33% to convertField goal0.2%−0.292% to makePunt0.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 4:40UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 13, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 0:05UGA 4th & 2 at MICH 16, up 23Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%−0.156% to convertField goal99.5%81% to makePunt99.2%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 0 of 1UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 10:49UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.7%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:41UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.0%97% to makeGo for two69.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:38UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:11UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.7%45% to convert
- Q4 4:25MICH Touchdown, down 25 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick0.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:5173% → 73%
Q1 14:12
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+16
27.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 16 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+35
27.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 35 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
27.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 7 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q1 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
27.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 9 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2DOWNS9 plays · 34 yds · 2:5028% → 29%
UGADrive 3TD6 plays · 59 yds · 2:5972% → 75%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
27.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
27.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 7 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
27.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 2 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
24.6%
Kenny McIntosh pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 18 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 3 yds · 3:1526% → 25%
Q1 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
24.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 6 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
25.4%
Cade McNamara sacked by Robert Beal Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 30Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 16
OWN 30
-2
24.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
24.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kearis Jackson at the Geo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5FG12 plays · 49 yds · 3:3276% → 80%
Q1 0:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
23.9%
Bennett, Stetson pass incomplete to Burton, Jermaine, PENALTY MICHIGAN offside (Hutchinson, Aidan) 5 yards to the GEORGIA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-2
23.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 32Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
23.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to George Pickens for 9 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
23.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 8 yds to the Geo 49Similar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
22.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Zamir White for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FG10 plays · 57 yds · 4:5421% → 23%
Q2 11:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
21.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 10 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+42
21.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 42 yds to the Geo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-8
22.1%
Cade McNamara sacked by Nakobe Dean for a loss of 8 yards to the Geo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7FG8 plays · 64 yds · 3:1579% → 83%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 6 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+53
21.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 53 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+5
19.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 5 yds to the Mich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1919% → 19%
UGADrive 9TD3 plays · 69 yds · 0:2784% → 91%
MICHDrive 10INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
13.4%
Cade McNamara pass intercepted Derion Kendrick return for a loss of 8 yards to the Geo 17 GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Christopher Smith) to the Geo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11END OF HALF4 plays · 14 yds · 1:0491% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12INT14 plays · 56 yds · 4:4311% → 7%
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
10.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 10 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
10.9%
Cade McNamara sacked by Travon Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+21
10.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+10
8.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Erick All for 10 yds to the Geo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
6.9%
Cade McNamara pass intercepted, touchback. Derion Kendrick return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3895% → 96%
Q3 8:17
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+16
4.5%
Jake Camarda punt for 54 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 16 yds to the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FUMBLE3 plays · 16 yds · 0:476% → 5%
UGADrive 15MISSED FG13 plays · 28 yds · 5:0496% → 97%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-15
3.9%
Bennett, Stetson pass complete to Jackson, Kearis for 26 yards to the MICHIGAN30, PENALTY GEORGIA face mask 15 yards to the GEORGIA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 25
OWN 29
+13
4.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 13 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+18
3.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 18 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
3.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Zamir White for 9 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
2.7%
James Cook run for 6 yds to the Mich 10 GEORGIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 14
OPP 20
-15
2.7%
Cook, James rush for 2 yards to the MICHIGAN18, PENALTY GEORGIA personal foul 15 yards to the MICHIGAN35, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16DOWNS7 plays · 31 yds · 1:593% → 3%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
3.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-1
3.4%
Cade McNamara sacked by Nolan Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 30 Cade McNamara fumbled, forced by Nolan Smith, recovered by Mich Cade McNamara , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+25
3.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Erick All for 25 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD6 plays · 59 yds · 3:0998% → 100%
Q4 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+39
0.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to James Cook for 39 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18DOWNS17 plays · 69 yds · 3:580% → 0%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 11 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+43
0.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 43 yds to the Geo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD3 plays · 50 yds · 0:100% → 1%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
50
+15
0.1%
McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Corum, Blake, PENALTY GEORGIA personal foul (Chambliss, Chaz) 15 yards to the GEORGIA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
1.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 35 yds for a TD, (A. Henning Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21END OF GAME12 plays · 55 yds · 3:5799% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 4:41
Kenny McIntosh pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 18 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q2 1:38
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 57 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
-3
FG · Q2 12:26
Jack Podlesny 43 yd FG GOOD
-2.9