Georgia

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1562nd
  Defense−0.0394th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.0%81st
  Defense36.2%97th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.0810th
  Defense+1.1379th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0440th
  Defense−0.1499th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2975th
  Defense+0.0679th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.4%92nd
  Defense41.5%91st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.5%32nd
  Defense27.0%93rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1278th
  Defense2.3098th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.0%67th
  Defense23.5%88th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.3%95th
  Defense19.1%37th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   VAN
2. W
   MUR
3. W
   ARST
4. W
   ND
5. W
   TENN
6. L
   SC
7. W
   UK
8. W
   FLA
9. W
   MIZ
10. W
    AUB
11. W
    TA&M
12. W
    GT
13. L
    LSU
14. W
    BAY

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia.

Players, 2019

1. Jake FrommQB322 plays · +0.256 pts/play · 36th of 228 QBs
   1.55WAR1.05 to 2.04
2. D'Andre SwiftRB181 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 26th of 349 RBs
   0.66WAR0.51 to 0.82
3. Brian HerrienRB87 plays · +0.136 pts/play · 181st of 349 RBs
   0.22WAR0.16 to 0.28
4. Rodrigo BlankenshipPK25 plays · +0.460 pts/play · 8th of 114 kickers
   0.22WAR0.14 to 0.29
5. Zamir WhiteRB52 plays · +0.186 pts/play · 209th of 349 RBs
   0.18WAR0.15 to 0.22
6. George PickensWR49 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 102nd of 439 WRs
   0.16WAR0.12 to 0.21
7. Lawrence CagerWR35 plays · +0.205 pts/play · 143rd of 439 WRs
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.18
8. Demetris RobertsonWR37 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 294th of 439 WRs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9609603rd of 130Roster talent: 960, 3rd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  3043042nd of 130Recruiting: 304, 2nd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  53%53%82nd of 130Returning production: 53%, 82nd of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +26.8+26.85th of 130SP+ rating: +26.8, 5th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.01 of the 0.09 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NDQ4 6:54 4th & 1 at ND 26, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
2. vs TA&MQ2 3:19 4th & 7 at TA&M 36, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
3. at VANQ4 7:20 4th & 1 at VAN 19, up 18Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. vs MIZQ3 6:56 4th & 2 at MIZ 11, up 16Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
5. vs NDQ3 10:49 4th & 4 at ND 48, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
6. at VANQ3 7:48 4th & 4 at VAN 32, up 15Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at TENNQ2 5:32 4th & 5 at TENN 42, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at BAYQ1 0:49 4th & 2 at BAY 6, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

50th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   VAN
2. W

   MUR
3. W

   ARST
4. W

   ND
5. W

   TENN
6. L

   SC
7. W

   UK
8. W

   FLA
9. W

   MIZ
10. W

    AUB
11. W

    TA&M
12. W

    GT
13. L

    LSU
14. W

    BAY

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Georgia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.59
• Clock+0.22
• Timeouts−0.12
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.14

Game by game

• VANW 30-6 at VAN94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +11, Clock +1
• MURW 63-17 vs MUR100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• ARSTW 55-0 vs ARST98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• NDW 23-17 vs ND87% → 96%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +18, Timeouts +1
• TENNW 43-14 at TENN93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +11
• SCL 17-20 vs SC92% → 26%Before kickoff +42 · On the field −66: Scoreboard −25, Timeouts −16
• UKW 21-0 vs UK95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +9
• FLAW 24-17 at FLA66% → 95%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +39, Clock +3
• MIZW 27-0 vs MIZ91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +9: Scoreboard +11
• AUBW 21-14 at AUB63% → 95%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +42, Clock +2
• TA&MW 19-13 vs TA&M80% → 97%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +1
• GTW 52-7 at GT97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +6
• LSUL 10-37 at LSU30% → 0%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −32
• BAYW 26-14 at BAY64% → 97%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +42, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Georgia's side.

Closest call

GT 42-44 UGA (2024) - Georgia dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.