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UGA

Georgia 10 at LSU 37

LSU
2019 · Week 15 · Dec 7, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:45 · Jake Camarda punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Home team on offense+35.4Pregame prior+1.9Score differential+31.9Garbage-time factor+9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.2Blowout margin+16.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:12: Terrace Marshall Jr. 7 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:28: Rodrigo Blankenship 39 Yd Field Goal — UGA win probability +2.9 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:22: Cade York 41 Yd Field Goal — LSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:20: Cade York 28 Yd Field Goal — LSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:18: Terrace Marshall Jr. 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick) — LSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UGA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:47UGA 4th & 9 at UGA 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:57UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:20LSU 4th & 13 at LSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:56UGA 4th & 7 at LSU 35, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:28UGA 4th & 8 at LSU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:25LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:44UGA 4th & 17 at UGA 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:22LSU 4th & 2 at UGA 23, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.7%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:14LSU 4th & 10 at UGA 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:20LSU 4th & 10 at UGA 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−6.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:00UGA 4th & 8 at LSU 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:17UGA 4th & 12 at LSU 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−5.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:25UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 47, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:20UGA 4th & 10 at LSU 28, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:41LSU 4th & 8 at UGA 32, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:45UGA 4th & 15 at LSU 45, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:09LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:12LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:18LSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:45LSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:41UGA Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:0630% → 31%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Tyler SimmonsSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 3 yds to the Geo 28Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
69.5%
Fromm, Jake pass sacked for loss of 10 yards to the GEORGIA18 (Clark, Damone), PENALTY LSU face mask (Clark, Damone) 15 yards to the GEORGIA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
69.3%
Brian Herrien run for 1 yd to the Geo 44Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
69.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
69.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
69.3%
Jake Camarda punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3169% → 71%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
69.4%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 3 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
69.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Joe Burrow for 16 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
69.5%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
69.4%
Joe Burrow run for no gain to the Geo 47Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+24
69.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 24 yds to the Geo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
69.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the Geo 23Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
71.3%
Ja'Marr Chase 23 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0829% → 29%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.6%
James Cook run for 2 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
70.6%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 8 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
70.6%
D'Andre Swift run for no gain to the Geo 35Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
70.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Kearis JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
71.1%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Dominick BlaylockSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
71.3%
Jake Camarda punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3771% → 71%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
71.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Saahdiq Charles) to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+4
71.0%
Joe Burrow run for 4 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-5
71.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+3
70.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 3 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
70.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the Geo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:0429% → 29%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
70.6%
James Cook run for 2 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
70.5%
Zamir White run for 5 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+11
70.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 11 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
70.4%
Zamir White run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
70.3%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by K'Lavon ChaissonSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+2
70.5%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
70.9%
Rodrigo Blankenship 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3872% → 78%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
71.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
72.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 11 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+41
72.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 41 yds to the Geo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
73.0%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Geo 6Similar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 5
OPP 6
-1
73.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 7Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
78.0%
Terrace Marshall Jr. 7 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:3324% → 26%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.0%
Brian Herrien run for 9 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
75.5%
Zamir White run for no gain to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
75.7%
Zamir White run for 3 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
76.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 7 yds to the Geo 44Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+15
75.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 15 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
76.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 17 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
75.3%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Brian HerrienSimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-4
75.7%
Zamir White run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+6
77.0%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 6 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
74.0%
Rodrigo Blankenship 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0076% → 75%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Racey McMath for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
75.7%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Thaddeus MossSimilar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
75.6%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
75.0%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tyler Simmons at the Geo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:3625% → 23%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
75.0%
Brian Herrien run for no gain to the Geo 21Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
75.5%
Brian Herrien run for 5 yds to the Geo 26Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+15
75.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for 15 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
74.8%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the Geo 43Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-9
75.2%
Jake Fromm sacked by Grant Delpit for a loss of 9 yards to the Geo 34Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 17
OWN 34
0
77.2%
Stetson Bennett pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
77.5%
Jake Camarda punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:0977% → 84%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
77.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 6 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
77.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+19
76.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 19 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
78.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 7 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
78.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Geo 46Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
78.3%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
79.6%
Joe Burrow run for 13 yds to the Geo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
79.8%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
79.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 6 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+2
80.9%
Joe Burrow run for 2 yds to the Geo 23Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+41
83.7%
Cade York 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:4117% → 20%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Tyler SimmonsSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
82.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Tyler Simmons for 19 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
82.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 16 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
80.5%
Jake Fromm pass intercepted Derek Stingley Jr. return for no gain to the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 1:2183% → 84%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+24
83.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 24 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Ja'Marr ChaseSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+17
83.8%
Joe Burrow run for 17 yds to the Geo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
84.5%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 4 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
85.2%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the Geo 41Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+11
85.3%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Ja'Marr Chase for 11 yds to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
86.3%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr., broken up by DJ DanielSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
85.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
85.0%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, broken up by Nakobe DeanSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
84.1%
Cade York 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:1017% → 17%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.6%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-3
83.4%
Jake Fromm run for 2 yds to the Geo 32 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Jake Fromm) to the Geo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14FG
19 plays · 65 yds · 6:4084% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
84.3%
LSU Penalty, Personal Foul, Targeting (Tory Carter Ejected) to the LSU 12Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
84.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Thaddeus Moss for 6 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+1
84.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+3
84.1%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 3 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
84.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+13
84.9%
Joe Burrow run for 13 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
85.8%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 9 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
86.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
86.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 15 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
86.7%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 9 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
87.0%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the Geo 25Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
86.6%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the Geo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
87.6%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 13 yds to the Geo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
87.9%
Burrow, Joe pass incomplete to Moss, Thaddeus, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Stokes, Eric) 7 yards to the GEORGIA3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Justin JeffersonSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
88.0%
Joe Burrow sacked by Jordan Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the Geo 10Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
87.9%
Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Clyde Edwards-HelaireSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
91.6%
Cade York 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:5310% → 8%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.8%
D'Andre Swift run for 13 yds to the Geo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
89.2%
Jake Fromm run for 14 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
90.0%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to George PickensSimilar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
90.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to James Cook for 11 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
90.1%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to George PickensSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
90.2%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Matt Landers, broken up by Derek Stingley Jr.Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+2
90.5%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+18
91.2%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 18 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-6
89.8%
Jake Fromm sacked by K'Lavon Chaisson for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 16
OPP 23
+4
90.6%
James Cook run for 4 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 12
OPP 19
0
91.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+37
92.2%
Rodrigo Blankenship 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:3993% → 99%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+71
93.2%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 71 yds to the Geo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.8%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for no gain to the Geo 9Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
94.0%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 5 yds to the Geo 4Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.5%
Terrace Marshall Jr. 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
97.4%
Jake Fromm pass intercepted Derek Stingley Jr. return for 17 yds to the Geo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:1699% → 100%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
98.6%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the Geo 9Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
98.8%
Joe Burrow run for 1 yd to the Geo 8Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
99.7%
Justin Jefferson 8 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:490% → 2%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for 5 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
99.7%
Fromm, Jake pass incomplete to Pickens, George, PENALTY LSU holding (Stingley Jr., Derek) 10 yards to the GEORGIA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Jake Fromm pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.7%
James Cook run for 1 yd to the Geo 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+6
99.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 6 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q4 14:25
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+3
99.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.8%
Brian Herrien run for 3 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+19
99.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 19 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.7%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to George PickensSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to George PickensSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+15
99.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 15 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
99.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 8 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+3
99.8%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.1%
Jake Fromm pass complete to George Pickens for 2 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:3999% → 100%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.2%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 8 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
99.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
99.3%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 20 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.4%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+2
99.4%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-5
99.4%
Joe Burrow sacked by Devonte Wyatt for a loss of 5 yards to the Geo 32Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
99.9%
Cade York 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Tyler SimmonsSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.9%
James Cook run for 14 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 21 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to George PickensSimilar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Tyler SimmonsSimilar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
Jake Fromm sacked by Patrick Queen for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Jake Camarda punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 30 yds · 5:05100% → 100%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 7 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+2
99.9%
Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 2 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Tyrion Davis-Price run for 4 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 5 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 2 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+3
99.9%
Chris Curry run for 3 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:12
Terrace Marshall Jr. 7 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)
+5.1
TD · Q3 2:18
Terrace Marshall Jr. 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Cade York Kick)
+4.1
FG · Q3 8:20
Cade York 28 Yd Field Goal
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com