2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:13 · Rodrigo Blankenship 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:56: James Cook run for 18 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +1.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:01: Brian Herrien run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK) — UGA win probability +2.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:25: Ryley Guay 26 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +1.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:04: Ryley Guay 46 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +1.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:48: Rodrigo Blankenship 50 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +1.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 6:30VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it10.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q2 14:05VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 33, down 14Close callWent for it · 10.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.2%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.2%average punt
- Q2 12:04VAN 4th & 26 at VAN 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.0%average punt
- Q2 2:25VAN 4th & 5 at UGA 7, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call7.0%91% to makePunt5.9%−1.1average punt
- Q2 1:06UGA 4th & 10 at UGA 35, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snapGo for it92.7%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.3%average punt
- Q3 13:11VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 38, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it9.9%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%average punt
- Q3 7:48UGA 4th & 4 at VAN 32, up 15Close callKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snapGo for it92.0%48% to convertField goalTheir call91.4%−0.651% to makePunt90.7%−1.2average punt
- Q3 5:59VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 25, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.5%−1.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q3 3:08UGA 4th & 1 at VAN 17, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.9%71% to convertField goal94.7%−1.280% to makePunt91.0%−4.9average punt
- Q3 1:39VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 26, down 18Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it6.2%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:10UGA 4th & 13 at UGA 45, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q4 12:02VAN 4th & 17 at VAN 5, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it2.2%−1.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q4 9:41VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 17, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q4 7:20UGA 4th & 1 at VAN 19, up 18Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.5%71% to convertField goalTheir call96.8%−0.777% to makePunt94.9%−2.7average punt
- Q4 2:13UGA 4th & 7 at VAN 14, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%84% to makePunt98.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 0:46VAN 4th & 10 at UGA 18, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%27% to convertField goal0.5%−0.179% to makePunt0.5%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:01UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:56UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:01UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4994% → 94%
Q1 14:10
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+31
5.9%
D'Andre Swift run for 16 yds to the VANDERBILT 41 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 3 yds for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 16 yds · 4:217% → 8%
Q1 10:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
6.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 2 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+8
7.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 8 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+6
7.7%
Harrison Smith punt for 54 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for 6 yds to the Geo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD11 plays · 89 yds · 5:2892% → 93%
Q1 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+11
7.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Matt Landers for 11 yds to the Geo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+17
8.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 17 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
8.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Matt Landers for 15 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 18 yds · 3:228% → 8%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 3 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
8.0%
Justice Shelton-Mosley run for 23 yds to the Geo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-10
8.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Vandy 49Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 20
OWN 38
-11
8.0%
Riley Neal sacked by TEAM for a loss of 11 yards to the Vandy 38 VANDERBILT Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 31
OWN 38
+5
8.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justice Shelton-Mosley for 5 yds to the Vandy 43Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 26
OWN 43
0
7.8%
Harrison Smith punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Simmons at the Geo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD8 plays · 80 yds · 4:0192% → 95%
Q2 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
7.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to James Cook for 6 yds to the Geo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+38
7.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 38 yds to the Vandy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
7.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (3 Yards) to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6FG14 plays · 73 yds · 5:166% → 8%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
5.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 4 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
5.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 9 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
6.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
6.0%
Riley Neal run for 10 yds to the VANDERBILT 40 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Geo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
6.2%
Riley Neal run for 4 yds to the Geo 8 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Geo 18Similar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 16
OPP 18
+4
6.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 4 yds to the Geo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:5794% → 94%
Q2 1:32
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+6
5.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 6 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8DOWNS15 plays · 52 yds · 0:547% → 9%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 21
OWN 48
+27
6.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 12 yds to the Geo 48 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 1:449% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11FG10 plays · 56 yds · 5:1493% → 95%
VANDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:216% → 6%
UGADrive 13DOWNS6 plays · 25 yds · 2:3796% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:196% → 5%
Q3 2:15
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+10
5.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Jamauri Wakefield for 10 yds to the Vandy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2497% → 97%
VANDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:534% → 3%
Q4 12:30
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-11
3.7%
Riley Neal sacked by Azeez Ojulari and Channing Tindall for a loss of 11 yards to the Vandy 5Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 17
OWN 5
+6
3.4%
Harrison Smith punt for 45 yds , Tyler Simmons returns for 6 yds to the Geo 11 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Geo 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17FUMBLE3 plays · 49 yds · 1:2197% → 98%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
2.7%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Brian Herrien for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+31
2.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 31 yds Kearis Jackson fumbled, forced by Feleti Afemui, recovered by Vandy Dashaun Jerkins , return for 12 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:293% → 3%
Q4 9:41
4TH & 10
OWN 17
+22
3.2%
Harrison Smith punt for 44 yds , Tyler Simmons returns for 22 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FG6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0098% → 99%
VANDrive 20FUMBLE6 plays · 21 yds · 1:191% → 1%
Q4 5:36
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-4
1.0%
Riley Neal run for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 45 Riley Neal fumbled, recovered by Geo Devonte WyattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21FG8 plays · 31 yds · 2:5999% → 99%
VANDrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 57 yds · 1:151% → 1%
Q4 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+23
0.7%
Mitchell Pryor run for 8 yds to the Geo 40 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+8
0.7%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to James Bostic for 8 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
0.8%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Chris Pierce for 16 yds to the Geo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:01
Brian Herrien run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rodrigo Blankenship KICK)
-2.6
FG · Q2 2:25
Ryley Guay 26 yd FG GOOD
+1.6
FG · Q2 0:04
Ryley Guay 46 yd FG GOOD
+1.5