Georgia

Profile vs. FBS, 2025

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2285th
  Defense+0.0472nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.8%90th
  Defense39.1%76th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.147th
  Defense+1.1394th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1574th
  Defense−0.0793rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2973rd
  Defense+0.1847th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.2%96th
  Defense45.4%62nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.3%69th
  Defense24.3%93rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0868th
  Defense2.5392nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.1%31st
  Defense20.4%65th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.4%73rd
  Defense15.1%41st

Percentiles among the 136 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2025

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MRSH
2. W
   APSU
3. W
   TENN
4. L
   ALA
5. W
   UK
6. W
   AUB
7. W
   MISS
8. W
   FLA
9. W
   MSST
10. W
    TEX
11. W
    CLT
12. W
    GT
13. W
    ALA
14. L
    MISS

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia.

Players, 2025

1. Gunner StocktonQB399 plays · +0.235 pts/play · 24th of 231 QBs
   1.76WAR1.04 to 2.47
2. Nate FrazierRB138 plays · +0.097 pts/play · 75th of 365 RBs
   0.25WAR0.18 to 0.33
3. Chauncey BowensRB93 plays · +0.105 pts/play · 131st of 365 RBs
   0.18WAR0.14 to 0.22
4. Peyton WoodringPK16 plays · +0.398 pts/play · 13th of 112 kickers
   0.12WAR0.09 to 0.15
5. Brett ThorsonP34 plays · +0.138 pts/play · 17th of 100 punters
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.13
6. Zachariah BranchWR80 plays · +0.054 pts/play · 225th of 451 WRs
   0.08WAR−0.08 to 0.26
7. Josh McCrayRB44 plays · +0.098 pts/play · 251st of 365 RBs
   0.08WAR0.06 to 0.10
8. London HumphreysWR18 plays · +0.182 pts/play · 279th of 451 WRs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2025

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  100310031st of 134Roster talent: 1003, 1st of 134 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  3143142nd of 134Recruiting: 314, 2nd of 134 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  37%37%61st of 132Returning production: 37%, 61st of 132 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +24.1+24.16th of 134SP+ rating: +24.1, 6th of 134 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 134 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2025

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at TENNQ3 1:45 4th & 3 at TENN 30, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
2. at TENNQ2 1:42 4th & 2 at TENN 2, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
3. vs MISSQ3 3:38 4th & 5 at UGA 30, up 2Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.9 pts
4. vs MISSQ2 0:00 4th & 3 at MISS 17, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
5. vs MISSQ4 2:06 4th & 3 at MISS 24, up 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. at GTQ2 9:42 4th & 3 at GT 4, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at ALAQ2 0:15 4th & 8 at ALA 45, up 14Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at GTQ4 14:10 4th & 5 at GT 33, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2025

29th of 136 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   MRSH
2. W

   APSU
3. W

   TENN
4. L

   ALA
5. W

   UK
6. W

   AUB
7. W

   MISS
8. W

   FLA
9. W

   MSST
10. W

    TEX
11. W

    CLT
12. W

    GT
13. W

    ALA
14. L

    MISS

What moved it, 2025

Every game starts at Georgia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.21
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.07
• Timeouts+0.14
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.05

Game by game

• MRSHW 45-7 vs MRSH99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• APSUW 28-6 vs APSU100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +2
• TENNW 44-41 at TENN62% → 89%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +16
• ALAL 21-24 vs ALA55% → 6%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −49: Scoreboard −50, Clock −3
• UKW 35-14 vs UK92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +13
• AUBW 20-10 at AUB66% → 97%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +42, Clock +2
• MISSW 43-35 vs MISS74% → 97%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +2
• FLAW 24-20 at FLA67% → 95%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +28: Scoreboard +43, Clock +3
• MSSTW 41-21 at MSST76% → 99%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +33, Clock +1
• TEXW 35-10 vs TEX61% → 100%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +38, Clock +2
• CLTW 35-3 vs CLT100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• GTW 16-9 at GT84% → 84%Before kickoff +34 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +28, Clock +1
• ALAW 28-7 at ALA53% → 100%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +50, Clock +2
• MISSL 34-39 vs MISS71% → 14%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −44, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Georgia's side.

Closest call

GT 42-44 UGA (2024) - Georgia dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.