YardLine - College football win probability

MISS

Ole Miss 35 at Georgia 43

UGA

2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Sanford Stadium

Speed4x

Win probability · UGA

modelUGA aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey play

What moved it - hover a play below

Q4 0:02 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 38

UGA has the ball

+19

Blowout context favors the offense

Market gave UGA a 70% pregame chance

UGA leading by 8

0:02 left in regulation

Defense has 0 timeouts left

2023+ clock rules

Pregame market line was available

Ball at MISS 37

Offense has 3 timeouts left

Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

UGA · Drive 1FG · 9 plays · 42 yds

Q1 15:00

Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

0.0

Q1 14:52

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the UGA 33

+1.8

Q1 14:11

Nate Frazier run for 6 yds to the UGA 39 for a 1ST down

-0.1

Q1 13:20

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 36 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST down

+0.5

Q1 13:10

Nate Frazier run for 1 yd to the MISS 24

+1.5

Q1 12:38

Georgia Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Noah Thomas) to the MISS 39

0.0

Q1 12:01

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 1 yd to the MISS 38

0.0

Q1 11:24

Cash Jones run for 5 yds to the MISS 33

-0.2

Q1 11:05

Peyton Woodring 51 yd FG GOOD

+3.7

MISS · Drive 2TD · 15 plays · 65 yds

Q1 11:05

Peyton Woodring kickoff for 61 yds

-1.1

Q1 10:44

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 13 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST down

-1.3

Q1 10:37

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to De'Zhaun Stribling

-1.6

Q1 10:14

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 3 yds to the UGA 49

0.0

Q1 9:52

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 7 yds to the UGA 42 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q1 9:24

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the UGA 33

-0.2

Q1 8:59

Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the UGA 30 for a 1ST down

-0.5

Q1 8:50

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright

0.0

Q1 8:27

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 10 yds to the UGA 20 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 8:04

Trinidad Chambliss run for 7 yds to the UGA 13

0.0

Q1 7:48

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III

0.0

Q1 7:28

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 6 yds to the UGA 7 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 7:07

Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the UGA 5

0.0

Q1 6:05

Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 7 Trinidad Chambliss fumbled, recovered by MISS Trinidad Chambliss

-0.6

Q1 5:47

Trinidad Chambliss run for 7 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

-13.0

UGA · Drive 3TD · 14 plays · 75 yds

Q1 5:47

Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+2.0

Q1 5:42

Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Dillon Bell

+3.5

Q1 5:28

Nate Frazier run for 6 yds to the UGA 31

0.0

Q1 4:48

Gunner Stockton run for 5 yds to the UGA 36 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 4:16

Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Oscar Delp

0.0

Q1 4:06

Chauncey Bowens run for 9 yds to the UGA 45

0.0

Q1 3:28

Gunner Stockton run for 3 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST down

+0.3

Q1 3:12

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the MISS 44

+0.5

Q1 2:52

Chauncey Bowens run for 3 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST down

+0.9

Q1 2:00

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 13 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST down

-0.4

Q1 1:19

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nate Frazier for 1 yd to the MISS 27 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Tahj Chambers) to the MISS 13 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q1 1:02

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 7 yds to the MISS 6

0.0

Q1 0:15

Cash Jones sacked by Zxavian Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 11

-0.2

Q2 14:56

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 11 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)

+10.4

MISS · Drive 4TD · 12 plays · 65 yds

Q2 14:56

Peyton Woodring kickoff for 57 yds

-1.2

Q2 14:41

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 14 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST down

-2.3

Q2 14:28

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Deuce Alexander

-1.7

Q2 14:12

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 7 yds to the UGA 44

0.0

Q2 13:41

Timeout Ole Miss, clock 13:41

-1.4

Q2 13:25

Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the UGA 41 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 13:00

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III

-0.3

Q2 12:42

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the UGA 29 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 12:03

Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the UGA 29

-0.2

Q2 11:32

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 24 yds to the UGA 5 for a 1ST down

-0.3

Q2 11:16

Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the UGA 1

0.0

Q2 10:53

Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

-14.8

UGA · Drive 5TD · 9 plays · 75 yds

Q2 10:53

Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+2.1

Q2 10:23

Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 11 yds to the UGA 36 for a 1ST down

+5.4

Q2 9:56

Nate Frazier run for 3 yds to the UGA 39

0.0

Q2 9:48

Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Noah Thomas

+0.4

Q2 9:36

Chauncey Bowens run for 17 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q2 9:01

Chauncey Bowens run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 45

+1.7

Q2 8:20

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 21 yds to the MISS 24 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 7:33

Dillon Bell run for 2 yds to the MISS 22

-1.1

Q2 7:13

Gunner Stockton run for 22 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)

+13.4

MISS · Drive 6TD · 14 plays · 75 yds

Q2 7:13

Peyton Woodring kickoff for 61 yds for a touchback

-1.2

Q2 6:45

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Caleb Odom for 13 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST down

-2.5

Q2 6:29

Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the MISS 41

-0.8

Q2 6:04

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Caleb Odom for 7 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST down

-0.3

Q2 5:41

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Caleb Odom

-0.7

Q2 5:18

Deuce Alexander run for 6 yds to the UGA 46

0.0

Q2 4:59

Trinidad Chambliss run for 5 yds to the UGA 41 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q2 4:15

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 11 yds to the UGA 30 for a 1ST down

-0.3

Q2 4:07

Georgia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ellis Robinson IV) to the UGA 15 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q2 3:46

Deuce Alexander run for 5 yds to the UGA 10

0.0

Q2 3:18

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 1 yd to the UGA 9

0.0

Q2 2:46

Georgia Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ellis Robinson IV) to the UGA 2 for a 1ST down

-0.4

Q2 2:28

Trinidad Chambliss run for 1 yd to the UGA 1

0.0

Q2 2:10

Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

-17.7

UGA · Drive 7END OF HALF · 16 plays · 58 yds

Q2 2:10

Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+2.1

Q2 2:00

Nate Frazier run for 4 yds to the UGA 29

+5.7

Q2 1:55

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 19 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q2 1:47

Nate Frazier run for 7 yds to the MISS 45

+0.9

Q2 1:15

Gunner Stockton pass incomplete

+0.9

Q2 1:09

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 6 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST down

-0.2

Q2 1:00

Chauncey Bowens run for 3 yds to the MISS 36

+0.9

Q2 1:00

Timeout Georgia, clock 01:00

-0.7

Q2 0:45

Nate Frazier run for 3 yds to the MISS 33

0.0

Q2 0:35

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 9 yds to the MISS 24 for a 1ST down

-0.3

Q2 0:24

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 3 yds to the MISS 21

-1.1

Q2 0:17

Gunner Stockton pass incomplete

0.0

Q2 0:10

Gunner Stockton run for 4 yds to the MISS 17

-0.2

Q2 0:02

Timeout Georgia, clock 00:02

-0.4

Q2 0:02

Timeout Ole Miss, clock 00:02

0.0

Q2 0:00

Peyton Woodring 35 yd FG GOOD

+4.3

MISS · Drive 8TD · 3 plays · 75 yds

Q3 15:00

Peyton Woodring kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

-0.8

Q3 14:55

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright

-5.7

Q3 14:46

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 75 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

-15.6

UGA · Drive 9TD · 11 plays · 75 yds

Q3 14:46

Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

0.0

Q3 14:35

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 12 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST down

+1.9

Q3 13:54

Chauncey Bowens run for 6 yds to the UGA 43

0.0

Q3 13:31

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 4 yds to the UGA 47 for a 1ST down

+0.2

Q3 12:58

Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Sage Ryan) to the MISS 38 for a 1ST down

+0.2

Q3 12:39

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 10 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST down

+1.6

Q3 12:13

Nate Frazier run for 5 yds to the MISS 23

0.0

Q3 11:28

Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 9 yds to the MISS 14 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 11:01

Chauncey Bowens run for 6 yds to the MISS 8

0.0

Q3 10:28

Chauncey Bowens run for 5 yds to the MISS 3 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 10:02

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

+19.4

MISS · Drive 10TD · 14 plays · 75 yds

Q3 10:02

Peyton Woodring kickoff for 64 yds for a touchback

-2.7

Q3 9:52

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the MISS 34

-5.7

Q3 9:08

Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the MISS 35 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 9:07

Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Cooper Johnson) to the MISS 30

0.0

Q3 8:48

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Deuce Alexander

0.0

Q3 8:39

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 32 yds to the UGA 38 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 8:19

Winston Watkins run for 4 yds to the UGA 34

-2.1

Q3 7:42

Trinidad Chambliss run for 4 yds to the UGA 30

0.0

Q3 6:45

Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the UGA 29

0.0

Q3 6:29

Trinidad Chambliss run for 16 yds to the UGA 13 for a 1ST down

+0.8

Q3 5:50

Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds to the UGA 11

-0.8

Q3 5:02

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the UGA 2 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 4:24

Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the UGA 2

-2.8

Q3 4:12

Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)

-16.1

UGA · Drive 11TD · 14 plays · 75 yds

Q3 4:12

Lucas Carneiro kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

+1.9

Q3 3:52

Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the UGA 30

-5.5

Q3 3:28

Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the UGA 35 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 2:40

Gunner Stockton run for 3 yds to the UGA 38

-0.5

Q3 2:12

Gunner Stockton run for 5 yds to the UGA 43 Gunner Stockton fumbled, recovered by UGA

-0.4

Q3 1:42

Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the UGA 44

0.0

Q3 1:03

Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the UGA 46 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 0:56

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 26 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q3 0:01

Gunner Stockton run for 9 yds to the MISS 19

+2.2

Q4 14:49

Josh McCray run for no gain to the MISS 19

-0.6

Q4 14:31

Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the MISS 13 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 14:07

Nate Frazier run for 7 yds to the MISS 6

0.0

Q4 13:18

Gunner Stockton run for 3 yds to the MISS 3 for a 1ST down

-2.3

Q4 12:56

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nate Frazier for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)

+28.9

MISS · Drive 12PUNT · 5 plays · 0 yds

Q4 12:56

Peyton Woodring kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

-2.9

Q4 12:51

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright

-4.6

Q4 12:49

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete

0.0

Q4 12:44

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to De'Zhaun Stribling

0.0

Q4 12:37

Oscar Bird punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the UGA 33

0.0

UGA · Drive 13TD · 9 plays · 67 yds

Q4 12:22

Dillon Bell run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

+4.6

Q4 11:36

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 6 yds to the MISS 44

+1.0

Q4 11:19

Nate Frazier run for 8 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST down

+0.8

Q4 10:30

Chauncey Bowens run for 4 yds to the MISS 32

+1.0

Q4 9:57

Gunner Stockton run for 7 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST down

-0.5

Q4 9:25

Nate Frazier run for no gain to the MISS 25

-0.4

Q4 8:19

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 13 yds to the MISS 12 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 8:01

Nate Frazier run for 5 yds to the MISS 7

-0.2

Q4 7:29

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)

+27.3

MISS · Drive 14PUNT · 5 plays · 1 yds

Q4 7:29

Peyton Woodring kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback

-0.8

Q4 7:05

Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 1 yd to the MISS 26

-4.5

Q4 6:51

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Kewan Lacy

0.0

Q4 6:45

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III

+2.4

Q4 6:32

Oscar Bird punt for 64 yds, downed at the UGA 10

0.0

UGA · Drive 15FG · 13 plays · 66 yds

Q4 6:19

Nate Frazier run for 7 yds to the UGA 17

+2.5

Q4 5:47

Nate Frazier run for 3 yds to the UGA 20 for a 1ST down

0.0

Q4 4:35

Gunner Stockton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 18

+0.3

Q4 4:03

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 36 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST down

+1.0

Q4 3:17

Chauncey Bowens run for 9 yds to the MISS 37

+1.5

Q4 2:40

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 6 yds to the MISS 31 for a 1ST down

+0.6

Q4 2:16

Nate Frazier run for 3 yds to the MISS 28

+0.2

Q4 2:16

Timeout Ole Miss, clock 02:16

+1.5

Q4 2:13

Nate Frazier run for 4 yds to the MISS 24

+1.3

Q4 2:13

Timeout Ole Miss, clock 02:13

0.0

Q4 2:08

Nate Frazier run for no gain to the MISS 24

0.0

Q4 2:08

Timeout Ole Miss, clock 02:08

0.0

Q4 2:06

Peyton Woodring 42 yd FG GOOD

+1.9

MISS · Drive 16DOWNS · 6 plays · 12 yds

Q4 2:00

Peyton Woodring kickoff for 57 yds , Izaiah Hartrup return for 15 yds to the MISS 23

0.0

Q4 1:54

Kewan Lacy run for 12 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST down

+0.3

Q4 1:44

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete

0.0

Q4 1:37

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete

0.0

Q4 1:32

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete

0.0

Q4 1:28

Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete

0.0

UGA · Drive 17END OF GAME · 3 plays · -3 yds

Q4 1:18

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 36

0.0

Q4 0:37

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 37

+0.1

Q4 0:02

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 38

0.0

Biggest swings

TD · Q4 12:56

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nate Frazier for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)

+28.9

TD · Q4 7:29

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)

+27.3

TD · Q3 10:02

Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

+19.4