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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreUK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:17 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:55: Gunner Stockton run for 6 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +2.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:21: Cutter Boley pass complete to Josh Kattus for 29 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK) — UK win probability +2.7 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:45: Dillon Bell run for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +3.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Peyton Woodring kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — UGA win probability +2.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:54: Dillon Bell run for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 6:10UK 4th & 6 at UK 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snapGo for it11.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%average punt
- Q2 11:09UK 4th & 9 at UK 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.6%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.9%average punt
- Q2 7:50UGA 4th & 13 at UGA 39, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it85.5%−0.720% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.3%average punt
- Q2 5:39UK 4th & 4 at UK 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it12.6%−0.345% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.9%average punt
- Q3 9:01UK 4th & 8 at UK 42, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it3.0%−0.334% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q3 1:29UK 4th & 6 at UK 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:31UGA 4th & 1 at UK 11, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%71% to convertField goal99.6%−0.187% to makePunt99.2%−0.6average punt
- Q4 7:34UK 4th & 10 at UGA 47, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:55UK 4th & 7 at UGA 26, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.136% to convertField goal0.1%64% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 4:02UK 4th & 4 at UGA 10, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.144% to convertField goal0.2%88% to makePunt-0.0%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 8:51UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:55UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.8%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:21UK Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.8%97% to makeGo for two12.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:45UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:54UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:23UGA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:51UK Touchdown, down 22 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5492% → 91%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.7%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 1 yd to the UGA 26Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
91.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 7 yds to the UGA 33Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
91.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Elyiss Williams for 8 yds to the UK 40Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
90.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 5 yds to the UK 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:359% → 10%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
90.6%
Boley, Cutter pass complete to Kattus, Josh for 11 yards to the UK48, PENALTY UK ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UK32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+2
90.6%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 2 yds to the UK 34Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
90.5%
Aidan Laros punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the UGA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD14 plays · 96 yds · 5:0891% → 93%
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+18
90.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 18 yds to the UGA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
90.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nate Frazier for 11 yds to the UGA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+8
90.1%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the UGA 42Similar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
90.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 17 yds to the UK 12 for a 1ST down Kentucky Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (6 Yards) to the UK 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:268% → 12%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.7%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 5 yds to the UK 30Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+38
91.6%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 38 yds to the UGA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
88.4%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Josh Kattus for 29 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5INT5 plays · 36 yds · 1:2890% → 90%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
89.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 21 yds to the UGA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+10
89.9%
Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-20
89.9%
Gunner Stockton pass intercepted Jordan Lovett return for 20 yds to the UK 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2111% → 11%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
89.0%
Cutter Boley sacked by CJ Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 27Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+2
89.0%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 2 yds to the UK 29Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
89.3%
Aidan Laros punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the UGA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 3:1289% → 88%
UKDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5611% → 11%
UGADrive 9TD7 plays · 40 yds · 2:3989% → 93%
Q2 4:35
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+10
89.1%
Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UK 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10DOWNS15 plays · 57 yds · 2:348% → 10%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
91.7%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 7 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
91.0%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 5 yds to the UGA 43Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+7
90.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 7 yds to the UGA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
91.3%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 5 yds to the UGA 31Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+11
90.7%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Seth McGowan for 11 yds to the UGA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+12
90.7%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 12 yds to the UGA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11FUMBLE5 plays · 13 yds · 1:408% → 9%
UGADrive 12TD6 plays · 38 yds · 2:1493% → 97%
Q3 12:28
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+36
92.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 36 yds to the UK 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 1:483% → 3%
Q3 9:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 15 yds to the UK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+29
97.0%
Aidan Laros punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the UGA 24 Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UGA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD10 plays · 71 yds · 4:2298% → 100%
Q3 6:16
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+33
98.1%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 33 yds to the UK 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+4
98.2%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 4 yds to the UK 11Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 0
OPP 16
+16
99.7%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Cash Jones for 16 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 2:460% → 0%
UGADrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 61 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q3 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+9
99.8%
Ryan Puglisi pass complete to Colbie Young for 9 yds to the UGA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
99.8%
Ryan Puglisi pass complete to Elyiss Williams for 27 yds to the UK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
99.8%
Ryan Puglisi pass complete to Elyiss Williams for 13 yds to the UK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17INT24 plays · 79 yds · 8:230% → 0%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Hardley Gilmore IV for 7 yds to the UK 18Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+6
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Cameron Miller for 6 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
99.9%
Kentucky Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the UK 19Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 15
OWN 19
-2
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Jason Patterson for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 17Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 17
OWN 17
+13
99.9%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the UK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+17
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Cameron Miller for 17 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
99.9%
Cutter Boley sacked by Nnamdi Ogboko for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 41Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Dante Dowdell for 2 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+10
99.9%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UGA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+18
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Cameron Miller for 18 yds to the UGA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+1
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Jason Patterson for 1 yd to the UGA 26Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+10
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 10 yds to the UGA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 5 yds to the UGA 11Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 4
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass intercepted, touchback. Ellis Robinson IV return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18INT3 plays · -4 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
UKDrive 19TD4 plays · 23 yds · 0:250% → 1%
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+13
99.9%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Henry Boyer for 13 yds to the UGA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 0
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (5 Yards) to the UGA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
Cutter Boley pass complete to Kendrick Law for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20END OF GAME6 plays · 8 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:54
Dillon Bell run for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 2:45
Dillon Bell run for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q2 14:21
Cutter Boley pass complete to Josh Kattus for 29 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)
-2.7