Try the model
UGA

Georgia 44 at Tennessee 41

TENN
2025 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2025 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-7.8TENN 28.6%Peyton Woodring 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 27 - HOME 21 · Q3 1:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:45 · Peyton Woodring 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 131Pregame prior−3.5Home team on offense−12.6Garbage-time factor−4.4Score differential−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Time remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:07: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 56 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +24.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:01: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 32 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +27.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:32: Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 28 yds for a TD (Gunner Stockton pass to Zachariah Branch for Two-Point Conversion) — UGA win probability +38.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Max Gilbert 42 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +16.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD — UGA win probability +59.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 4UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 8:34UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 32, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:18UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.7%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:28TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:57TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 49, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:42UGA 4th & 2 at TENN 2, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−9.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:02TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−3.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:33UGA 4th & 7 at UGA 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:45UGA 4th & 3 at TENN 30, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%−2.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:17UGA 4th & 6 at TENN 6, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−17.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:40TENN 4th & 6 at UGA 30, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%−0.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:32UGA 4th & 6 at TENN 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:30TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:58UGA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:29TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:37TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:52UGA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:19UGA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:07TENN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:01TENN Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:32UGA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    31.7%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1538% → 40%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 9 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
37.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
38.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 18 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
38.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 3 yds to the UGA 42Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+17
38.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 17 yds to the UGA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
38.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the UGA 19Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+15
38.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 15 yds to the UGA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
39.8%
Joey Aguilar run for 4 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2461% → 61%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
39.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 45 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
39.4%
Gunner Stockton run for 3 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+10
39.7%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 10 yds to the TENN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
39.8%
Nate Frazier run for 4 yds to the TENN 13Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+7
40.1%
Gunner Stockton run for 7 yds to the TENN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.7%
Gunner Stockton run for 6 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2240% → 42%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q1 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
41.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 72 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4758% → 58%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.8%
Dwight Phillips Jr. run for 2 yds to the UGA 27Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
42.0%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Dillon BellSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+5
42.5%
Tennessee Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UGA 32Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
42.5%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to London HumphreysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:2043% → 53%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
42.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 15 yds to the TENN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
43.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 2 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+21
43.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 21 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
44.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 7 yds to the UGA 38Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-10
44.8%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Chris Cole for a loss of 10 yards to the UGA 48 Tennessee Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the UGA 48Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+9
44.4%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the UGA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
45.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 6 yds to the UGA 33Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
46.2%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the UGA 32Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+4
46.2%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the UGA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
46.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 5 yds to the UGA 23Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+9
47.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 9 yds to the UGA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
52.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 14 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:2649% → 53%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
50.8%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the UGA 31Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
51.1%
Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the UGA 36Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
51.3%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UGA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
51.4%
Gunner Stockton sacked by Caleb Herring and Dominic Bailey for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 39Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
52.5%
Gunner Stockton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+9
53.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Cash Jones for 9 yds to the UGA 48Similar
Q1 0:18
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+13
53.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 13 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
52.8%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Raylen WilsonSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
53.0%
Nate Frazier run for 3 yds to the TENN 36Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+36
46.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 36 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:1649% → 49%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Travis Smith Jr.Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.6%
Peyton Lewis run for 6 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
49.4%
Georgia Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
50.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Peyton LewisSimilar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
50.1%
Peyton Lewis run for 3 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
49.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
48.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 57 yds, downed at the UGA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:0350% → 49%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
49.6%
Chauncey Bowens run for 6 yds to the UGA 10Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+5
50.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 5 yds to the UGA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
50.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 5 yds to the UGA 20 Georgia Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-10 Yards) to the UGA 10Similar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+13
50.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 13 yds to the UGA 23Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+1
50.5%
Gunner Stockton run for 1 yd to the UGA 24Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
51.4%
Brett Thorson punt for 52 yds , Boo Carter returns for no gain to the TENN 24 Boo Carter fumbled, recovered by TENNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:1452% → 56%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
52.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 6 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+11
53.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Mike Matthews for 11 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
54.8%
Joey Aguilar run for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 37 Joey Aguilar fumbled, recovered by TENNSimilar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+5
53.6%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TENN 42Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
54.5%
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+5
55.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Radarious Jackson for 5 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
56.0%
Jackson Ross punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the UGA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10FG
16 plays · 88 yds · 6:1045% → 49%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
55.4%
Chauncey Bowens run for no gain to the UGA 10Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+12
56.7%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the UGA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
55.9%
Zachariah Branch run for 4 yds to the UGA 26Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
55.9%
Dwight Phillips Jr. run for 1 yd to the UGA 27Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+15
57.0%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UGA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
55.4%
Chauncey Bowens run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 2
50
+1
54.4%
Chauncey Bowens run for 1 yd to the TENN 49Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
55.1%
Chauncey Bowens run for 2 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
55.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 11 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
55.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 18 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
54.3%
Nate Frazier run for 9 yds to the TENN 9Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+3
54.6%
Chauncey Bowens run for 3 yds to the TENN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
54.8%
Nate Frazier run for 3 yds to the TENN 3Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
54.3%
Gunner Stockton sacked by Caleb Herring for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 7Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
55.9%
Gunner Stockton run for 5 yds to the TENN 2Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
51.5%
Peyton Woodring 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11INT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3654% → 54%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Ethan DavisSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.5%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
53.7%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted Joenel Aguero return for no gain to the UGA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12INT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:5043% → 45%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
57.2%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 8 yds to the UGA 38Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+5
54.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 5 yds to the UGA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
55.7%
Georgia Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UGA 33Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+7
57.7%
Cash Jones run for 7 yds to the UGA 40Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+10
57.2%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
50
0
53.9%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Lawson LuckieSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
50
-38
54.9%
Ryan Puglisi pass intercepted Ty Redmond return for 38 yds to the TENN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:3647% → 63%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.2%
Dwight Phillips Jr. run for 8 yds to the UGA 33Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
51.1%
Nate Frazier run for 9 yds to the UGA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
51.7%
Dillon Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 41Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+7
52.7%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 7 yds to the UGA 48Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+14
51.2%
Gunner Stockton run for 14 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
50.7%
Nate Frazier run for 6 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
49.4%
Nate Frazier run for no gain to the TENN 32Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+13
53.0%
Chauncey Bowens run for 13 yds to the TENN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
51.8%
Dwight Phillips Jr. run for 3 yds to the TENN 16Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+6
52.1%
Nate Frazier run for 6 yds to the TENN 10Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+5
53.7%
Nate Frazier run for 5 yds to the TENN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
52.4%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the TENN 3Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
52.7%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the TENN 1Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.7%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1442% → 40%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
42.2%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TENN 15Similar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+8
41.9%
DeSean Bishop run for 8 yds to the TENN 23Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
42.0%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the TENN 24Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
40.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles KitselmanSimilar
Q3 6:02
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+12
39.5%
Jackson Ross punt for 47 yds , Sacovie White-Helton returns for 12 yds to the UGA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2063% → 60%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
37.5%
Chauncey Bowens run for 3 yds to the UGA 44Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
37.0%
Chauncey Bowens run for no gain to the UGA 44Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
37.2%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
40.2%
Brett Thorson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Boo Carter at the TENN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:3542% → 41%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
42.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 10 yds to the TENN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
42.7%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
43.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Braylon StaleySimilar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
41.2%
Joey Aguilar pass intercepted KJ Bolden return for no gain to the TENN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5664% → 71%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
35.8%
Nate Frazier run for 1 yd to the TENN 36Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+1
35.9%
Nate Frazier run for 1 yd to the TENN 35Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+5
36.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 5 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
28.6%
Peyton Woodring 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3035% → 62%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.8%
Peyton Lewis run for 7 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
37.2%
Peyton Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 31Similar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
34.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 9 yds to the TENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
37.6%
Peyton Lewis run for 4 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+56
61.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 56 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:4443% → 62%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
56.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 16 yds to the UGA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
53.6%
Dwight Phillips Jr. run for 15 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
52.2%
Nate Frazier run for 5 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+31
51.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 31 yds to the TENN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
49.8%
Gunner Stockton run for 5 yds to the TENN 3Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
50.0%
Chauncey Bowens run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 6Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
51.7%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q4 12:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
38.3%
Peyton Woodring 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5646% → 78%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.5%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the TENN 26Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
45.3%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 15 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
49.9%
Star Thomas run for 27 yds to the UGA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
77.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 32 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:3435% → 29%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
65.3%
Chauncey Bowens run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 23Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
66.1%
Gunner Stockton run for 5 yds to the UGA 28Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
67.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 10 yds to the UGA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
63.6%
Gunner Stockton sacked by Jordan Ross for a loss of 4 yards to the UGA 34Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
66.6%
Nate Frazier run for no gain to the UGA 34Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
70.9%
Gunner Stockton sacked by Joshua Josephs for 0 yards to the UGA 34 Gunner Stockton fumbled, forced by Joshua Josephs, recovered by TENN Bryson Eason , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4183% → 89%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
82.8%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UGA 39Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+3
81.1%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the UGA 36Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+4
82.2%
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the UGA 32Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+2
83.9%
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the UGA 30Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
89.0%
Max Gilbert 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0013% → 52%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.1%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UGA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
85.1%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 38Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+17
87.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Sacovie White-Helton for 17 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
84.6%
Gunner Stockton run for 2 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
85.6%
Chauncey Bowens run for 1 yd to the TENN 42Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+10
86.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 10 yds to the TENN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
84.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Cash Jones for 4 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
84.0%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
86.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for no gain to the TENN 28Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+28
48.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 28 yds for a TD (Gunner Stockton pass to Zachariah Branch for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24MISSED FG
19 plays · 50 yds · 2:2057% → 65%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 2 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
57.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miles KitselmanSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
53.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 12 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
59.5%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+4
63.1%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
63.7%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the UGA 42Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
64.4%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+7
63.4%
DeSean Bishop run for 7 yds to the UGA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
66.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 3 yds to the UGA 32Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
68.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 6 yds to the UGA 26Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+1
65.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the UGA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
68.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the UGA 24Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
69.0%
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the UGA 20Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-5
65.6%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UGA 25Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+43
65.0%
Max Gilbert 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
50.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 80%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Mike MatthewsSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
65.4%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the UGA 24Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
63.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
79.8%
Max Gilbert 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 27TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
71.4%
Nate Frazier run for 21 yds to the TENN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
71.4%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the TENN 1Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.2%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD
-59.2
TD · Q4 2:32
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 28 yds for a TD (Gunner Stockton pass to Zachariah Branch for Two-Point Conversion)
-38
TD · Q4 11:01
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Braylon Staley for 32 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+27.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com