Try the model
MISS

Ole Miss 35 at Georgia 43

UGA
2025 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2025 · Sanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+25.7UGA 86.9%Gunner Stockton pass complete toLawson Luckie for 7 yds for a TD(Peyton Woodring KICK)AWAY 35 - HOME 40 · Q4 7:29
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:29 · Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Pregame prior+3.0Home team on offense+16.2Garbage-time factor+9.2Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:46: Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 75 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +14.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:02: Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UGA win probability +14.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:12: Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — MISS win probability +16.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:56: Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nate Frazier for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +24.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 7:29: Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +25.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:05UGA 4th & 18 at MISS 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 0:00UGA 4th & 3 at MISS 17, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.2%−0.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−8.6
    average punt
  3. Q3 6:29MISS 4th & 1 at UGA 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−5.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−16.0
    average punt
  4. Q3 1:03UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.0%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q4 12:37MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−5.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  6. Q4 6:32MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 26, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  7. Q4 2:06UGA 4th & 3 at MISS 24, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%−0.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−9.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 1:28MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:47MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56UGA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:53MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:13UGA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:10MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:46MISS Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:02UGA Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    59.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:12MISS Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:56UGA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:29UGA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UGADrive 1FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4774% → 73%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the UGA 33Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
73.5%
Nate Frazier run for 6 yds to the UGA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+36
73.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Colbie Young for 36 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
73.5%
Nate Frazier run for 1 yd to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-15
73.5%
Georgia Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Noah Thomas) to the MISS 39Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 24
OPP 39
+1
73.2%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 1 yd to the MISS 38Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 23
OPP 38
+5
73.0%
Cash Jones run for 5 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 18
OPP 33
+51
73.0%
Peyton Woodring 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 4:5727% → 30%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
73.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 13 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
72.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
72.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 3 yds to the UGA 49Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+7
72.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Cayden Lee for 7 yds to the UGA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
72.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the UGA 33Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+3
72.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the UGA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
72.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
72.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 10 yds to the UGA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
72.1%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 7 yds to the UGA 13Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
72.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+6
72.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 6 yds to the UGA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
71.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds to the UGA 5Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
71.6%
Trinidad Chambliss run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 7 Trinidad Chambliss fumbled, recovered by MISS Trinidad ChamblissSimilar
Q1 5:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.6%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 7 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4670% → 73%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.1%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Dillon BellSimilar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.0%
Nate Frazier run for 6 yds to the UGA 31Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
69.6%
Gunner Stockton run for 5 yds to the UGA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.9%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Oscar DelpSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
69.7%
Chauncey Bowens run for 9 yds to the UGA 45Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
70.1%
Gunner Stockton run for 3 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
70.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 8 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
70.4%
Chauncey Bowens run for 3 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
70.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 13 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
70.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nate Frazier for 1 yd to the MISS 27 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Tahj Chambers) to the MISS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
70.2%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 7 yds to the MISS 6Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 3
OPP 6
-5
70.0%
Cash Jones sacked by Zxavian Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 11Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
72.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 11 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:4829% → 36%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
71.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 14 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
70.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
70.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 7 yds to the UGA 44Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+3
70.6%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the UGA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
70.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
70.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the UGA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
69.5%
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the UGA 29Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+24
69.5%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Winston Watkins for 24 yds to the UGA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
69.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the UGA 1Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1067% → 74%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
66.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 11 yds to the UGA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
66.6%
Nate Frazier run for 3 yds to the UGA 39Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
67.5%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+17
66.0%
Chauncey Bowens run for 17 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
67.9%
Chauncey Bowens run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 45Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+21
67.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 21 yds to the MISS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
67.6%
Dillon Bell run for 2 yds to the MISS 22Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+22
74.3%
Gunner Stockton run for 22 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3529% → 44%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
71.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Caleb Odom for 13 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
70.0%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+7
69.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Caleb Odom for 7 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
69.0%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Caleb OdomSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
69.3%
Deuce Alexander run for 6 yds to the UGA 46Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
69.1%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 5 yds to the UGA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
68.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 11 yds to the UGA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
67.9%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ellis Robinson IV) to the UGA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
67.7%
Deuce Alexander run for 5 yds to the UGA 10Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
67.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 1 yd to the UGA 9Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+7
68.2%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ellis Robinson IV) to the UGA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.2%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 1 yd to the UGA 1Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7END OF HALF
16 plays · 58 yds · 2:0061% → 65%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.1%
Nate Frazier run for 4 yds to the UGA 29Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
61.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 19 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
63.7%
Nate Frazier run for 7 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
64.1%
Gunner Stockton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+6
63.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 6 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
63.9%
Chauncey Bowens run for 3 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
63.0%
Nate Frazier run for 3 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+9
62.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 9 yds to the MISS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
64.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 3 yds to the MISS 21Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 7
OPP 21
0
64.4%
Gunner Stockton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+4
62.3%
Gunner Stockton run for 4 yds to the MISS 17Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
64.7%
Peyton Woodring 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0939% → 53%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q3 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
47.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 75 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3349% → 65%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
48.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 12 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
49.1%
Chauncey Bowens run for 6 yds to the UGA 43Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
50.8%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Chauncey Bowens for 4 yds to the UGA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
49.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Sage Ryan) to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
50.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 10 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
51.6%
Nate Frazier run for 5 yds to the MISS 23Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+9
51.1%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to London Humphreys for 9 yds to the MISS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
50.7%
Chauncey Bowens run for 6 yds to the MISS 8Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+5
50.3%
Chauncey Bowens run for 5 yds to the MISS 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.2%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4041% → 67%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
58.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
56.5%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
57.4%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Cooper Johnson) to the MISS 30Similar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
58.1%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+32
58.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 32 yds to the UGA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
54.4%
Winston Watkins run for 4 yds to the UGA 34Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
52.5%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 4 yds to the UGA 30Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
53.3%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the UGA 29Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+16
55.2%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 16 yds to the UGA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
50.1%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds to the UGA 11Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+9
49.6%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the UGA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
48.7%
Kewan Lacy run for no gain to the UGA 2Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
32.7%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5638% → 61%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.5%
Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the UGA 30Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
38.0%
Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the UGA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
37.2%
Gunner Stockton run for 3 yds to the UGA 38Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
36.1%
Gunner Stockton run for 5 yds to the UGA 43 Gunner Stockton fumbled, recovered by UGASimilar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
36.0%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the UGA 44Similar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
32.9%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the UGA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
35.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 26 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
38.1%
Gunner Stockton run for 9 yds to the MISS 19Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 1
OPP 19
0
37.9%
Josh McCray run for no gain to the MISS 19Similar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+6
35.6%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the MISS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
37.3%
Nate Frazier run for 7 yds to the MISS 6Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+3
36.2%
Gunner Stockton run for 3 yds to the MISS 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nate Frazier for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1453% → 49%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
47.7%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
49.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to De'Zhaun StriblingSimilar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
51.1%
Oscar Bird punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the UGA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 4:5354% → 87%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
53.9%
Dillon Bell run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
50
+6
58.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Oscar Delp for 6 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
58.8%
Nate Frazier run for 8 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
58.5%
Chauncey Bowens run for 4 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+7
61.3%
Gunner Stockton run for 7 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
61.2%
Nate Frazier run for no gain to the MISS 25Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
60.7%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 13 yds to the MISS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
61.2%
Nate Frazier run for 5 yds to the MISS 7Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
86.9%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3326% → 23%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Kewan Lacy for 1 yd to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
74.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Kewan LacySimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
75.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace IIISimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
77.0%
Oscar Bird punt for 64 yds, downed at the UGA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:1384% → 96%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
84.3%
Nate Frazier run for 7 yds to the UGA 17Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+3
84.5%
Nate Frazier run for 3 yds to the UGA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
85.6%
Gunner Stockton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 18Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+36
86.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 36 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
89.7%
Chauncey Bowens run for 9 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+6
90.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 6 yds to the MISS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
91.7%
Nate Frazier run for 3 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
93.5%
Nate Frazier run for 4 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
93.2%
Nate Frazier run for no gain to the MISS 24Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
95.8%
Peyton Woodring 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:265% → 5%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
94.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 12 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.4%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
94.8%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
95.2%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
95.3%
Trinidad Chambliss pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:1698% → 97%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 36Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-1
97.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 37Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 12
OPP 37
-1
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:29
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+25.7
TD · Q4 12:56
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nate Frazier for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+24.8
TD · Q3 4:12
Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
-16.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com