Georgia

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1973rd
  Defense+0.0667th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.0%64th
  Defense40.7%67th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3069th
  Defense+1.2069th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1679th
  Defense+0.0456th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2160th
  Defense+0.0974th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.4%60th
  Defense47.5%51st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.5%59th
  Defense26.4%88th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2484th
  Defense2.5981st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.9%78th
  Defense18.3%33rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.5%46th
  Defense18.3%75th

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ARK
2. W
   AUB
3. W
   TENN
4. L
   ALA
5. W
   UK
6. L
   FLA
7. W
   MSST
8. W
   SC
9. W
   MIZ
10. W
    CIN

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia.

Players, 2020

1. Zamir WhiteRB143 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 28th of 338 RBs
   0.49WAR0.37 to 0.62
2. Stetson BennettQB156 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 89th of 212 QBs
   0.36WAR0.08 to 0.63
3. James CookRB58 plays · +0.185 pts/play · 166th of 338 RBs
   0.20WAR0.16 to 0.24
4. JT DanielsQB117 plays · +0.083 pts/play · 135th of 212 QBs
   0.18WAR−0.03 to 0.38
5. Kenny McIntoshRB53 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 197th of 338 RBs
   0.17WAR0.13 to 0.19
6. George PickensWR47 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 68th of 409 WRs
   0.14WAR0.07 to 0.20
7. Jermaine BurtonWR42 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 129th of 409 WRs
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.14
8. Kearis JacksonWR45 plays · +0.111 pts/play · 143rd of 409 WRs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9909901st of 127Roster talent: 990, 1st of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  3123121st of 127Recruiting: 312, 1st of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  36%36%109th of 127Returning production: 36%, 109th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +19.1+19.18th of 127SP+ rating: +19.1, 8th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.10 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs CINQ4 2:59 4th & 3 at CIN 43, up 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−6.1 pts
2. at ALAQ3 4:49 4th & 2 at UGA 43, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. vs CINQ3 0:49 4th & 9 at CIN 30, up 11Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.2 pts
4. at ARKQ2 0:00 4th & 2 at ARK 21, down 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
5. at UKQ2 13:12 4th & 1 at UGA 39, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
6. vs CINQ2 12:16 4th & 2 at CIN 42, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. at ALAQ3 12:11 4th & 5 at ALA 44, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
8. at ALAQ2 5:42 4th & 6 at ALA 33, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

39th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   ARK
2. W

   AUB
3. W

   TENN
4. L

   ALA
5. W

   UK
6. L

   FLA
7. W

   MSST
8. W

   SC
9. W

   MIZ
10. W

    CIN

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Georgia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.73
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.46

Game by game

• ARKW 37-10 at ARK95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8
• AUBW 27-6 vs AUB68% → 100%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +33
• TENNW 44-21 vs TENN78% → 100%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +25
• ALAL 24-41 at ALA32% → 1%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts +1
• UKW 14-3 at UK87% → 98%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +23, Clock +1
• FLAL 28-44 vs FLA57% → 1%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −56, Clock −3
• MSSTW 31-24 vs MSST95% → 97%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +11, Timeouts +1
• SCW 45-16 at SC92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +12
• MIZW 49-14 at MIZ84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +22
• CINW 24-21 vs CIN74% → 95%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +27

Points of win probability, from Georgia's side.

Closest call

GT 42-44 UGA (2024) - Georgia dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.