Georgia

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3196th
  Defense−0.0798th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense52.7%98th
  Defense35.6%94th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1824th
  Defense+1.2643rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1779th
  Defense−0.1699th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4597th
  Defense−0.0196th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense55.1%93rd
  Defense42.0%90th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense44.9%99th
  Defense23.3%92nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1865th
  Defense2.5198th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.4%41st
  Defense20.2%79th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense10.8%97th
  Defense16.0%48th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Georgia allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ORE
2. W
   SAM
3. W
   SC
4. W
   KENT
5. W
   MIZ
6. W
   AUB
7. W
   VAN
8. W
   FLA
9. W
   TENN
10. W
    MSST
11. W
    UK
12. W
    GT
13. W
    LSU
14. W
    OSU
15. W
    TCU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Georgia.

Players, 2022

1. Stetson BennettQB287 plays · +0.443 pts/play · 12th of 234 QBs
   2.38WAR1.79 to 3.01
2. Kenny McIntoshRB117 plays · +0.168 pts/play · 64th of 384 RBs
   0.37WAR0.27 to 0.47
3. Daijun EdwardsRB77 plays · +0.121 pts/play · 176th of 384 RBs
   0.17WAR0.12 to 0.22
4. Brock BowersTE52 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 8th of 214 TEs
   0.16WAR0.06 to 0.25
5. Ladd McConkeyWR45 plays · +0.154 pts/play · 151st of 455 WRs
   0.13WAR0.06 to 0.20
6. Kendall MiltonRB39 plays · +0.115 pts/play · 273rd of 384 RBs
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.12
7. Darnell WashingtonTE21 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 75th of 214 TEs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.10
8. Jack PodlesnyPK17 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 60th of 110 kickers
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Georgia's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  9909902nd of 129Roster talent: 990, 2nd of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  3093092nd of 129Recruiting: 309, 2nd of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  68%68%42nd of 128Returning production: 68%, 42nd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +35.3+35.31st of 129SP+ rating: +35.3, 1st of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Georgia's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.06 of the 0.10 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UKQ4 6:55 4th & 1 at UGA 42, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
2. at UKQ4 2:32 4th & 1 at UGA 47, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
3. at UKQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at UK 20, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. vs OSUQ4 12:10 4th & 6 at OSU 13, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.3 pts
5. vs AUBQ2 2:34 4th & 1 at UGA 47, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. at MSSTQ2 0:03 4th & 3 at UGA 27, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
7. vs GTQ3 4:11 4th & 3 at GT 18, up 13Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. vs OSUQ2 1:44 4th & 4 at OSU 14, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

24th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Georgia's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   ORE
2. W

   SAM
3. W

   SC
4. W

   KENT
5. W

   MIZ
6. W

   AUB
7. W

   VAN
8. W

   FLA
9. W

   TENN
10. W

    MSST
11. W

    UK
12. W

    GT
13. W

    LSU
14. W

    OSU
15. W

    TCU

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Georgia's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.80
• Clock+0.02
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.67

Game by game

• OREW 49-3 vs ORE89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +14
• SAMW 33-0 vs SAM100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• SCW 48-7 at SC95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +8
• KENTW 39-22 vs KENT100% → 99%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +3
• MIZW 26-22 at MIZ97% → 96%Before kickoff +47 · On the field −2: Scoreboard +11, Clock +1
• AUBW 42-10 vs AUB96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +6
• VANW 55-0 vs VAN99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• FLAW 42-20 vs FLA95% → 100%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +9
• TENNW 27-13 vs TENN77% → 99%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +25
• MSSTW 45-19 at MSST89% → 100%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +11: Scoreboard +17
• UKW 16-6 at UK93% → 97%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• GTW 37-14 vs GT99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• LSUW 50-30 vs LSU90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +15
• OSUW 42-41 vs OSU63% → 93%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +31, Possession & field position −1
• TCUW 65-7 vs TCU84% → 100%Before kickoff +34 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +20

Points of win probability, from Georgia's side.

Closest call

GT 42-44 UGA (2024) - Georgia dropped to a 4.5% win probability before pulling it out.