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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:56 · Jack Podlesny 27 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 6:22: Kenny McIntosh 9 Yd Run (Jack Podlesny Kick) — UGA win probability +6.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 14:51: Will Levis pass incomplete to Dane Key — UK win probability +2.6 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 12:50: Will Levis pass complete to Josh Kattus for 16 yds to the Geo 16 for a 1ST down — UK win probability +2.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:52: Barion Brown 8 Yd pass from Will Levis (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — UK win probability +5.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:26: Timeout GEORGIA, clock 04:26 — UGA win probability +3.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 9:10UK 4th & 1 at UGA 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.3%71% to convertField goal11.2%−0.254% to makePunt11.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 2:56UGA 4th & 6 at UK 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it86.0%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call86.0%88% to makePunt85.0%−1.0average punt
- Q2 3:40UGA 4th & 6 at UK 6, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snapGo for it80.0%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call80.2%91% to makePunt76.3%−3.9average punt
- Q2 2:03UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snapGo for it17.2%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.4%average punt
- Q2 0:00UGA 4th & 1 at UK 20, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snapGo for it85.3%71% to convertField goalTheir call84.0%−1.375% to makePunt79.9%−5.4average punt
- Q3 10:12UK 4th & 16 at UK 5, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snapGo for it13.0%−2.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q3 5:19UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q4 14:54UGA 4th & 1 at UK 1, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.8%59% to convertField goal92.3%−1.694% to makePunt88.1%−5.7average punt
- Q4 9:52UK 4th & 2 at UGA 8, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.9%54% to convertField goal5.9%−1.090% to makePunt1.5%−5.4average punt
- Q4 6:55UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 42, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 89.3% before the snapGo for it90.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.1%−1.9average punt
- Q4 4:17UK 4th & 13 at UGA 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snapGo for it9.5%−1.519% to convertField goalTheir call11.0%75% to makePunt7.1%−3.9average punt
- Q4 2:32UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 47, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.9%−1.9average punt
- Q4 1:17UK 4th & 3 at UK 42, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.6%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 0 of 1UGA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 6:22UGA Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:52UK Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick13.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call12.8%−0.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1DOWNS14 plays · 64 yds · 5:357% → 9%
UGADrive 2FG13 plays · 58 yds · 6:0891% → 89%
UKDrive 3INT16 plays · 57 yds · 9:0511% → 16%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
11.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 11 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+12
11.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 12 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-4
12.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 48Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+15
12.3%
Levis, Will pass sacked for loss of 8 yards to the KENTUCKY40 (Williams, Mykel), PENALTY GEORGIA personal foul (Beal Jr., Robert) 15 yards to the GEORGIA37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 12
OPP 18
-45
16.3%
Will Levis pass intercepted Kelee Ringo return for 45 yds to the Geo 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4FG10 plays · 47 yds · 4:5686% → 87%
Q2 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+13
14.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 13 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
14.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 6 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
14.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 13 yds to the Kent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3015% → 15%
UGADrive 6FG13 plays · 56 yds · 1:5486% → 88%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
14.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 6 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
13.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 6 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
13.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 5 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
13.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 5 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+4
12.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 4 yds to the Kent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 7INT6 plays · 25 yds · 2:2887% → 87%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
50
0
12.8%
Stetson Bennett pass intercepted Jordan Lovett return for no gain to the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 2:0715% → 14%
Q3 11:11
2ND & 12
OWN 9
-4
14.8%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD8 plays · 58 yds · 3:4487% → 93%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
13.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 4 yds to the Kent 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:489% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11DOWNS10 plays · 72 yds · 5:1793% → 94%
UKDrive 12TD9 plays · 99 yds · 4:598% → 13%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
8.4%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 15 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+42
7.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 42 yds to the Geo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
10.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Josh Kattus for 16 yds to the Geo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+8
12.8%
Barion Brown 8 Yd pass from Will Levis (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 2:4789% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14MISSED FG11 plays · 70 yds · 2:3011% → 9%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+47
10.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 47 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
12.3%
Levis, Will pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Lassiter, Kamari) 15 yards to the GEORGIA28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
14.3%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Jordan Dingle, broken up by Malaki StarksSimilar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+11
12.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 11 yds to the Geo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 9
OPP 16
-4
14.3%
Will Levis sacked by Javon Bullard and Robert Beal Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Geo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 1:3992% → 96%
Q4 2:32
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+28
4.4%
Brett Thorson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Barion Brown at the KENTUCKY 10 GEORGIA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Nyland Green) to the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16DOWNS6 plays · 17 yds · 1:105% → 4%
Q4 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
4.9%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 6 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
4.3%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 1 yd to the Kent 36Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-2
4.6%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:22
Kenny McIntosh 9 Yd Run (Jack Podlesny Kick)
-6.6
TD · Q4 9:52
Barion Brown 8 Yd pass from Will Levis (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+5.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:26
Timeout GEORGIA, clock 04:26
-3.8