2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreVAN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:35 · Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 14 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:40: Kenny McIntosh run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:00: Daijun Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:06: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 4:46UGA 4th & 3 at VAN 48, up 7Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:07VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 11, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.224% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q1 0:00VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q3 14:44VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q3 9:09UGA 4th & 5 at VAN 10, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%88% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:35VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 3:35UGA 4th & 10 at VAN 32, up 31Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.8%51% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 1:40UGA 4th & 9 at VAN 17, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%80% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 0:47VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 28, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 11:12VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:57VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 45, down 48Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 10:01UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:40UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:00UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:06UGA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:33UGA Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:21UGA Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:31UGA Touchdown, up 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3999% → 98%
Q1 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
98.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 6 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+28
98.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 28 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
98.4%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 11 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2PUNT9 plays · -10 yds · 2:172% → 2%
Q1 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
98.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 12 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-15
98.2%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 22
OWN 26
-13
98.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-13 Yards) to the Vandy 13Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 33
OWN 15
0
98.2%
Matt Hayball punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ladd McConkey at the Geo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 2:3198% → 98%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
98.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dillon Bell for 11 yds to the Geo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+1
98.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 1 yd to the Geo 47Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+5
97.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dillon Bell for 5 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
97.9%
Brett Thorson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the Vandy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:232% → 2%
Q1 3:07
4TH & 11
OWN 11
+20
97.8%
Matt Hayball punt for 51 yds , Ladd McConkey returns for 20 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 5TD4 plays · 42 yds · 1:1598% → 98%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
97.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 18 yds to the Vandy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
97.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 5 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+12
97.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 12 yds to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:362% → 2%
UGADrive 7TD12 plays · 81 yds · 5:3098% → 99%
Q2 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
98.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dillon Bell for 8 yds to the Geo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
98.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 9 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+5
98.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 5 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
98.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 25 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+5
97.8%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Vandy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8FUMBLE7 plays · 50 yds · 2:181% → 2%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
98.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Ray Davis for 18 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+22
98.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 22 yds to the Geo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+6
98.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 6 yds Jayden McGowan fumbled, recovered by Geo Christopher SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD10 plays · 85 yds · 4:4499% → 100%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+34
98.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 34 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+21
98.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 21 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+6
98.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dillon Bell for 6 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
99.0%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 10Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10MISSED FG14 plays · 40 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 24Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+19
99.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 19 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
99.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 11 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+10
99.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for 10 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
99.6%
GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the Geo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-18
99.6%
AJ Swann sacked by Nolan Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the Geo 26 VANDERBILT Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-9 Yards) to the Geo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:091% → 2%
Q3 14:44
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Matt Hayball punt for 42 yds , Ladd McConkey returns for no gain to the Geo 25 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Geo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13FG11 plays · 67 yds · 4:51100% → 100%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
99.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 18 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+7
99.7%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 7 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
99.8%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 2 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:190% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15FG13 plays · 49 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
Q3 7:03
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+10
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 10 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
99.9%
Stetson Bennett sacked by Kane Patterson for a loss of 8 yards to the Geo 41Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+27
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Darnell Washington for 27 yds to the Vandy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
99.9%
Stetson Bennett sacked by Christian James for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 35 Stetson Bennett fumbled, recovered by GeoSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+14
99.9%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 14 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:180% → 0%
Q3 0:47
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Matt Hayball punt for 44 yds , Kearis Jackson returns for 1 yd to the Geo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to De'Nylon Morrissette for 9 yds to the Geo 38Similar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Kearis Jackson for 21 yds to the Vandy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to De'Nylon Morrissette for 3 yds to the Vandy 24Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 24 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:480% → 0%
UGADrive 19TD10 plays · 61 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 7 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+18
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Jackson Meeks for 18 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 12 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+9
99.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arik Gilbert for 4 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20DOWNS9 plays · 20 yds · 4:150% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21TD4 plays · 45 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
VANDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER4 plays · 13 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:00
Daijun Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 1:06
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Dominick Blaylock for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 1:40
Kenny McIntosh run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+0.5