2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:11 · Jack Podlesny 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:59: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +0.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 10:40: Jack Podlesny 50 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +1.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:51: Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +4.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:11: Jack Podlesny 36 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:45: Kenny McIntosh run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK) — UGA win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 11:39GT 4th & 9 at UGA 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%32% to convertField goal2.2%−<0.132% to makePunt2.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:13UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it97.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q1 6:07GT 4th & 10 at GT 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.6%average punt
- Q1 0:18UGA 4th & 12 at GT 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snapGo for it94.2%−0.219% to convertField goalTheir call94.4%86% to makePunt93.6%−0.9average punt
- Q2 11:35GT 4th & 5 at UGA 45, up 4Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.4%41% to convertField goal6.1%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call6.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:21GT 4th & 10 at GT 37, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it6.9%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q2 1:44UGA 4th & 2 at GT 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.9%57% to convertField goal91.7%−0.264% to makePunt90.4%−1.6average punt
- Q2 1:34UGA 4th & 14 at GT 38, up 3Close callPunted · 91.2% before the snapGo for it91.0%−0.319% to convertField goal91.2%38% to makePuntTheir call91.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:28GT 4th & 11 at UGA 39, down 3Close callPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.327% to convertField goal9.2%36% to makePuntTheir call8.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 10:40UGA 4th & 10 at GT 33, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.0% before the snapGo for it88.5%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call88.8%49% to makePunt88.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 9:12GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, down 6Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.2%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.4%average punt
- Q3 5:51UGA 4th & 1 at GT 1, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.8%59% to convertField goal88.1%−1.794% to makePunt83.7%−6.1average punt
- Q3 4:11UGA 4th & 3 at GT 18, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.7%51% to convertField goalTheir call95.5%−0.379% to makePunt92.7%−3.0average punt
- Q3 1:08GT 4th & 13 at GT 34, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q4 12:02GT 4th & 9 at GT 49, down 23Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.7%average punt
- Q4 8:26GT 4th & 25 at GT 21, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:29UGA 4th & 1 at GT 40, up 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goal99.7%−0.234% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:55GT 4th & 1 at UGA 24, down 30Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.168% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 10:43GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.6%97% to makeGo for two2.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:59UGA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.1%97% to makeGo for two94.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:51UGA Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.2%97% to makeGo for two95.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:45UGA Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:13UGA Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:55GT Touchdown, down 24 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:571% → 2%
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
98.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate McCollum for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 3
50
+8
98.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate McCollum for 8 yds to the Geo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 9
OPP 41
+34
98.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate McCollum for 34 yds to the Geo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.1%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 7 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1798% → 98%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 4 yds to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
98.1%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for no gain to the Geo 29Similar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.9%
Brett Thorson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jamal Haynes at the GTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 2:462% → 3%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 3 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
97.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Jamie Felix for 7 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
97.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate McCollum for 9 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+14
97.3%
David Shanahan punt for 44 yds , Ladd McConkey returns for 14 yds to the GEORGIA 45 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Sirad Bryant) to the Geo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4FG13 plays · 44 yds · 5:3297% → 96%
GTDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 3:354% → 5%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
96.2%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Dylan Leonard) to the GTech 21Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+16
96.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dontae Smith for 16 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
95.8%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Malik Rutherford for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 35Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+15
95.8%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kelee Ringo) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD6 plays · 80 yds · 3:2495% → 96%
Q2 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.5%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 5 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 4:265% → 6%
UGADrive 8PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 1:3794% → 93%
Q2 1:44
4TH & 2
OPP 26
-12
93.3%
Brock Bowers run for 3 yds to the GTech 23 GEORGIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Brock Bowers) to the GTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 59 yds · 1:017% → 7%
UGADrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11FG12 plays · 38 yds · 3:5593% → 93%
Q3 13:30
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+13
92.2%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 13 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-15
92.4%
GEORGIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Warren McClendon) to the GTech 43Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+5
91.6%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 5 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+5
90.9%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kyle Kennard) to the GTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12DOWNS5 plays · -8 yds · 1:208% → 8%
Q3 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
91.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate McCollum for 1 yd to the GTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD7 plays · 17 yds · 3:1493% → 96%
GTDrive 14FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Jamie Felix run for no gain to the GTech 25 Jamie Felix fumbled, forced by Jamon Dumas-Johnson, recovered by Geo Robert Beal Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2997% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 2:523% → 3%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Dontae Smith for 7 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
96.4%
Zach Gibson sacked by Tykee Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 31Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
96.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate McCollum for 6 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD6 plays · 99 yds · 2:1197% → 99%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+8
97.2%
Daijun Edwards run for 13 yds to the Geo 18 for a 1ST down GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Darnell Washington) to the Geo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+85
97.3%
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Kenny McIntosh for 83 yds to the GEORGIA 4 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (2 Yards) to the GTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 1 yds · 1:301% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD2 plays · 49 yds · 0:3899% → 100%
GTDrive 20PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Bear Alexander for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 32 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Taisun Phommachanh) to the GTech 32Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 14
OWN 32
-1
99.9%
Zach Gibson sacked by Marvin Jones Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 31Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-10
99.9%
Zach Gibson sacked by Mykel Williams and MJ Sherman for a loss of 10 yards to the GTech 21Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 25
OWN 21
+21
99.9%
David Shanahan punt for 49 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 21 yds to the GTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21FUMBLE6 plays · 11 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Carson Beck run for 3 yds to the GTech 35 Carson Beck fumbled, forced by Ayinde Eley, recovered by GTech Clayton Powell-LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:460% → 1%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 10 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
99.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Leo Blackburn for 22 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-5
99.9%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Geo 38Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+13
100.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 13 yds to the Geo 25Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+24
99.5%
Dontae Smith pass complete to Malachi Carter for 24 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23END OF GAME5 plays · 17 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:51
Stetson Bennett pass complete to Brock Bowers for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q4 13:45
Kenny McIntosh run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Podlesny KICK)
+2
FG · Q3 10:40
Jack Podlesny 50 yd FG GOOD
+1.2